Gong Chen

With the adoption of more ambitious emission reduction strategies in the shipping industry by the International Maritime Organization and the resulting stricter greenhouse gas emission reduction requirements, it is particularly important for all stakeholders in the global maritime shipping industry to assess the energy efficiency of shipping vessels. Forming predictive capabilities for ship fuel consumption and Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) annual ratings, for example, are two important works. This article adopted 14 different algorithms in three categories of data-driven approaches, i.e., statistics, machine learning and deep learning, including polynomial regression, ridge regression, adaptive boosting, categorical boosting, elastic net, etc., and built the ship fuel consumption prediction model using ship noon report as the data source. The prediction accuracy and computational efficiency of model training were compared based on metrics of coefficient of determination, mean absolute percentage error and floating-point operations per amount of training data. Cross-validations were performed for all 14 algorithms to analyze their sensitivities to their respective tuned parameters. Comparisons indicated that algorithms of the statistics approach were sensitive to the quality of the data source, compared with the machine learning and the deep learning approaches. The accuracy of the elastic net algorithm was sensitive to the tuned parameters. Two algorithms, light gradient boosting machine and random forest, were selected based on their performances of prediction accuracy and computational efficiency of model training. Then, the selected algorithms were separately combined with long short-term memory as the time-series prediction algorithm to form their respective coupled framework. Both of the coupled frameworks achieved successful prediction of the CII annual discriminant and rating of the studied ships. The prediction accuracy was validated to be sufficient.