Martin Hørlyk Kristensen

A central question in economics is how talent is allocated across elite professions and whether access is shaped by family ties or by open, standardized systems of selection. We study these questions in Western classical composition, a setting in which family background historically influenced entry through both inherited skill and inherited privilege, and where rich biographical records make it possible to trace selection over multiple centuries. Using data on more than 16,000 composers from 450 CE to the present, we identify dynastic ties from Grove Music Online and measure prominence by biographical entry length. Dynastic composers are 15–21 percent less prominent than non-dynasts, conditional on country and birth cohort, and this discount is driven by descendants: founders perform about as well as non-dynasts, while descendants perform significantly worse. Archival manuscript evidence from the Répertoire International des Sources Musicales yields similar results, suggesting that the pattern is not an artifact of editorial selection. In the twentieth century, however, the dynasty discount reverses, consistent with the transition from informal, family-based entry to more standardized selection through conservatory training. Consistent with this interpretation, dynasts are less likely to have formal training mentioned in their biographies, more likely to be described as advancing through family connections, and face a smaller dynasty discount in regions and periods with conservatories. Taken together, the findings suggest that expanded access to standardized training can weaken inherited advantage, reshape elite formation, and improve talent allocation, with broader implications for long-run innovation and economic performance.