Kaustubh Chahande

Stagnant income growth has limited Japan’s growth potential and reflation efforts. This paper dissects the wage dynamics of different labor groups and identifies the structural barriers to income growth. Although average income growth has been weak due to the rise of part-time workers and their declining hours, real wages per hour have risen across all labor groups, with the most gain seen among part-time and female workers. The weak income growth is largely driven by structural factors, including disincentives for second earners in the social security system, pension policies, and more broadly the dual labor market structure. Policies to address these structural barriers are key to boost income growth in Japan.

"Volume 2023 (2023): Issue 001 (Jan 2023): Accelerating Innovation and Digitalization in Asia to Boost Productivity" published on 09 Jan 2023 by International Monetary Fund.

Many countries have deployed substantial fiscal packages to cushion the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. A historical look at past pandemics and epidemics highlights concomitant public sector support in response to health crises. This paper assesses how fiscal multipliers could vary during health crises, particularly how factors such as social distancing and uncertainty could lower contemporaneous (T) multipliers and increase near-term (T+1 and T+2) multipliers as economies re-open, including due to pent-up demand. Based on Jorda’s (2005) local projection methodology, the paper shows that cumulative fiscal multipliers one year after a health crisis is about twice larger than during normal times, particularly in advanced economies. These results suggest that large-scale fiscal support deployed at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic could have larger than usual lingering impacts on economic activity, which need to be accounted for when calibrating policies.