Wenyue Che

Tunnel construction in tectonically active mountainous regions is frequently hampered by elevated geothermal conditions, threatening construction safety and long-term infrastructure performance. In the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau, characterized by complex fault systems and intense hydrothermal activity, rigorous assessment of geothermal hazard susceptibility along tunnel corridors is of critical engineering importance. However, the sparsity of geothermal observational data renders conventional assessment approaches insufficient, as they fail to quantify predictive uncertainty, which is essential for reliable risk decision-making. To address this gap, this study proposes a three-stage framework that integrates multi-source data fusion with Monte Carlo-based uncertainty quantification, using the Nige Tunnel as a case study. Ten conditioning factors were incorporated, with temperature-weighted positive samples constructed from field-surveyed hot springs. Gaussian noise injection and fractal buffer randomization were applied across 500 Monte Carlo iterations of an L2-regularized logistic regression model, evaluated by leave-one-out cross-validation. The three-stage assessment framework achieved robust predictive performance (mean leave-one-out cross-validation area under the curve (LOO-AUC) = 0.824) under sparse-sample conditions. High and Very High susceptibility zones account for 14.2% of the study area, concentrated along fault traces and collocated with hydrothermal discharge locations, with the Nige Tunnel traversing predominantly High to Very High susceptibility zones. Fault distance emerges as the dominant predictive factor, surpassing heat flow and Moho depth, indicating that structural permeability is the rate-limiting control on geothermal fluid enrichment in fault-dominated systems. The findings offer scientific support and methodological insights for risk zoning and hazard mitigation design in tunnel engineering projects in comparable geological settings.