Shuming Liu

Submarine telecommunication cables carry over 99% of international data traffic yet remain persistently vulnerable to geophysical, anthropogenic, and oceanographic hazards. Existing risk assessment methods , GIS-based least-cost path analysis and cable-body condition monitoring , operate in isolation, cannot fuse heterogeneous multi-modal data, and yield neither uncertainty estimates nor physics-consistent predictions. We present MarineGuard-GNN, a physics-informed multimodal heterogeneous graph neural network that unifies four hazard modalities , bathymetric, oceanographic, vessel traffic, and seismic , in a single relational graph over four semantic node types and four typed relation edges. Three novel technical contributions distinguish the framework: (i) the Cross-Modal Spatiotemporal Tokenizer (CMST), which jointly encodes GEBCO bathymetric raster fields via a SatMAE-pretrained ViT-S and NOAA AIS vessel trajectories via a Transformer-XL into a unified 256-dimensional token space, addressing the modality-heterogeneity gap; (ii) a Physics-Informed Heterogeneous Graph Transformer with a differentiable Mohr–Coulomb geomechanical shear-stress regularization loss Lphys that prevents physically inconsistent risk assignments at steep bathymetric gradients; and (iii) a Bayesian Uncertainty-Aware Risk Head using Monte Carlo Dropout (K=50, p=0.3) to produce calibrated epistemic uncertainty maps for inspection prioritization. Under strict 4-fold geographic cross-validation across the Pacific, Atlantic, Indian, and Mediterranean basins using five publicly available datasets, MarineGuard-GNN achieves the highest mean AUC-ROC (0.7228±0.0665) and Average Precision (0.6418±0.1040) among five baselines. A Dijkstra-based spatial route optimizer reduces mean predicted fault risk by 0.0035 absolute on the Atlantic New York–UK corridor, avoiding one additional high-risk node at a distance overhead of only +7.4 km (+0.56%). All code, preprocessing pipelines, and datasets are publicly available.