Patrick O’connor

In 2015, the 62nd session of the Regional Committee [RC] of the Eastern Mediterranean Region [EMR] endorsed the Eastern Mediterranean Vaccine Action Plan 2016–2020 (EMVAP) that included postponement of the measles elimination target to before 2020. However, the EMR does not have a regional rubella control or elimination goal. We reviewed the progress of measles and rubella surveillance in context of measles elimination in the Eastern Mediterranean Region during 2019–2022. We compiled data on coverage, reported cases, surveillance indicators, incidence, and genotypes. We conducted an age-cohort analysis to estimate the size of the susceptible population using coverage and SIAs coverage data. We reviewed the dossiers of countries that applied to the Regional Verification Commission [RVC] for the verification of measles and rubella elimination. Between 2019 and 2022, the regional coverage of the vaccine against measles and rubella was stable at 83% for the first dose [MCV1] and increased from 75% to 78% for the second dose [MCV2] after a dip during COVID-19. In the EMRO, eighteen countries are using MR (measles–rubella) and/or measles–mumps–rubella (MMR) vaccines and four are using measles vaccines. The reported regional measles incidence per 1,000,000 was 23.3 in 2019, decreased to 7.4 in 2020, and re-increased to 50 in 2022, with two main genotypes–D8 and B3–in circulation. Both genotypes are considered to be actively circulating in eighteen countries, with different circulating variants of each genotype. There were no genotyping data available from four countries. Measles and rubella surveillance indicators deteriorated in the region. The number of susceptible individuals exceeded one birth cohort in nine of the 22 countries. In 2019–2022, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, and Oman were verified to have eliminated measles and rubella. While four countries eliminated measles and rubella and another five progressed toward measles and rubella elimination, however, immunity gaps and reported incidence increased in eleven countries. Countries approaching elimination need to prepare verification dossiers, while others need to increase their routine coverage, conduct follow-up campaigns, and improve surveillance. Submission of progress reports to the RVC will measure progress toward the goal.

Measles or rubella elimination is verified when endemic transmission of the corresponding virus has been absent for over 36 months in a defined area, in the presence of a well-performing surveillance system. This report updates the progress by 47 countries in the WHO African Region towards the goal of attaining verification of measles and rubella elimination in at least 80% of the countries of the region by 2030. We reviewed the WHO-UNICEF vaccination coverage estimates for the first and second doses of measles- and measles-rubella-containing vaccines, as well as the available coverage data for measles supplementary immunization activities, during 2022–2023. We also reviewed the measles-surveillance performance and analyzed the epidemiological trends of measles and rubella as reported in the case-based surveillance database. The WHO-UNICEF estimates of first measles vaccine dose (MCV1) and second measles vaccine dose (MCV2) coverage for the African Region for 2022 were 69% and 45%, respectively. Rubella-containing vaccines have been introduced in the routine immunization program in 32 of 47 (68%) countries as of the end of 2022, with no introductions during 2023. In 2022 and 2023, a total of 144,767,764 children were vaccinated in the region with measles or MR vaccines in 24 countries through 32 mass vaccination campaigns. The administrative coverage target of 95% was reached in only 15 (49%) of the 32 vaccination campaigns. In 2023, a total of 125,957 suspected cases of measles were reported through the case-based surveillance system, and 73,625 cases (58%) were confirmed to be measles, either by laboratory testing, by epidemiological linkage, or based on clinical compatibility. A total of 4805 confirmed rubella cases were reported, though this total represents substantial under-ascertainment. The regional incidence of measles was 60.3 cases per million population. Twenty-six countries (55%) met the targets for the two principal surveillance system performance-monitoring indicators. No country in the region has attained the verification of measles or rubella elimination as of the end of 2023. Addressing systemic problems with routine immunization and using tailored approaches to reach unvaccinated children can contribute to progress towards measles and rubella elimination. In addition, periodic and timely high-quality preventive SIAs remain a critical programmatic strategy to reach unvaccinated children.

Since the World Health Assembly (WHA) in 2012 endorsed the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP), which included regional measles and rubella elimination goals by 2020, global progress towards verification of measles and rubella elimination has been incremental. Even though the 2020 elimination goals were not achieved, commitment towards achieving measles and rubella elimination has been firmly established in the Immunization Agenda 2030 (IA2030) and the Measles and Rubella Strategic Framework (MRSF) 2021–2030. In 2023, the six Regional Verification Commissions for measles and rubella elimination (RVCs) reviewed data as of 31 December 2022 and confirmed that 82 (42%) Member States have been verified for measles elimination, and 98 (51%) Member States have been verified for rubella elimination. The six RVCs are composed of independent public health and immunization experts who are well-placed to support accelerating measles and rubella elimination. RVCs should be leveraged not only to review elimination documents but also to advocate for and champion public health programming that supports measles and rubella activities. The verification of elimination process is one of many tools that should be deployed to reinforce and accelerate efforts towards achieving a world free of measles and rubella.

Measles is a highly infectious disease leading to high morbidity and mortality impacting people’s lives and economies across the globe. The measles vaccine saves more lives than any other vaccine in the Essential Programme of Immunization and is also the most cost-effective vaccine, with an extremely high return on investment. This makes achieving measles elimination through vaccination a key child health intervention, particularly in low-income countries, where the overwhelming majority of measles deaths continue to occur. All countries and regions of the world have committed to achieving measles elimination, yet many have faced challenges securing political commitment at national and global levels and predictable, timely, and flexible support from global donors, and experienced setbacks during the COVID-19 pandemic. This has happened against a backdrop of stagnant measles vaccination coverage and declining enthusiasm for vertical programmes, culminating in a World Health Organization Strategic Advisory Group of Experts (WHO SAGE) review of the feasibility of measles eradication in 2019. Sustaining the elimination of measles long term is extremely difficult, and some countries have lost or nearly lost their measles elimination status in the face of ongoing importation of cases from neighbouring or closely connected countries in which elimination had been delayed. Thus, a widening equity gap in measles immunisation coverage creates challenges for all countries, not just those facing the greatest burden of measles morbidity and mortality. Delaying elimination of measles in some countries makes it cumulatively harder for all countries to succeed for three principal reasons: increased inequity in measles immunisation coverage makes outbreaks more likely to happen and to be larger; political will is very difficult to sustain; and immunity may wane to a point that transmission is re-established. New strategies are needed to support countries and regions in their vision for a world without measles, including ways to galvanise domestic, regional and global resources and ignite the political will that is essential to make the vision a reality.

Somalia is a complex and fragile setting with a demonstrated potential for disruptive, high-burden measles outbreaks. In response, since 2018, Somalian authorities have partnered with UNICEF and the WHO to implement measles vaccination campaigns across the country. In this paper, we create a Somalia-specific model of measles transmission based on a comprehensive epidemiological dataset including case-based surveillance, vaccine registries, and serological surveys. We use this model to assess the impact of these campaign interventions on Somalian’s measles susceptibility, showing, for example, that across the roughly 10 million doses delivered, 1 of every 5 immunized a susceptible child. Finally, we use the model to explore a counter-factual epidemiology without the 2019–2020 campaigns, and we estimate that those interventions prevented over 10,000 deaths.

This report describes rubella incidence in European regions for the years 2005 to 2019.