Changle Yang

Arid inland saline lakes are key components of basin ecosystems. As the largest saline lake in Xinjiang and a critical ecological barrier in northwest China, Ebinur Lake’s area dynamics are vital to regional sustainable development. This study integrates Landsat imagery (1992–2024) with meteorological and socio-economic data to investigate optimal water extraction methods, spatio-temporal lake area variations, and driving mechanisms. Multiple methods were employed, including water index comparison, Mann–Kendall test, Pearson correlation, and ridge regression. Results show that: (1) the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) maintains high, stable classification accuracy across years and months, making it suitable for long-term monitoring; (2) from 1992 to 2024, lake area demonstrates a significant fluctuating downward trend without abrupt change points, indicating continuous degradation. During the growing season (April–October), it first decreases and then increases, with larger early-season areas, minima in August and September, coinciding with peak agricultural irrigation demand; (3) regarding driving mechanisms, socio-economic factors dominate (approximately 70%), while meteorological factors play a weakly regulatory role (about 30%). Population growth and increased water consumption are the primary drivers, with obvious seasonal differences. Meteorological changes, socio-economic development, and ecological measures jointly influence lake area. Although extreme events (e.g., anomalous precipitation) induce short-term fluctuations, they do not alter the long-term degradation trend dominated by human activities. This study provides methodological support for long-term monitoring of arid saline lakes and scientific evidence for ecological conservation and water resource management in the Ebinur Lake Basin.