Tshililo Nelwamondo

Over the past few decades, South Africa has experienced recurrent drought events of varying intensity. The Musina Local Municipality is particularly vulnerable due to a semi-arid climate, erratic rainfall, and rising temperatures which collectively contribute to heightened environmental stress. This study analyzed drought spatiotemporal patterns, livelihood impacts, and associated coping strategies in Musina from 1991 to 2023. Adopting a mixed-method approach, the research integrated quantitative climate data from the Copernicus Climate Data Store with qualitative insights gathered through semi-structured questionnaires administered to local community members. Drought frequency and distribution were examined using rainfall anomalies, temperature trends, and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). With more than 15 drought events recorded between 1991 and 2023, the findings indicate that Musina experiences recurrent drought episodes including major drought events in 1991–1992 and 2015–2016, characterized by rising temperatures that intensify evapotranspiration and exacerbate water scarcity. SPEI results highlight repeated drought conditions over the study period, with over 14 identified episodes and variable recovery periods, while notably negative values during major events (1991–1992 and 2015–2016) reflect severe moisture deficits associated with elevated temperatures. These climatic shifts have significantly undermined agricultural productivity, livestock health, and household water security, thereby threatening overall livelihood stability. More than 50% of the households experienced water shortages, with 17% reporting crop losses and 17% livestock mortality. While the study identified various coping mechanisms—such as reliance on boreholes, government water aid, conservation agriculture, and livelihood diversification—community vulnerability remains high due to limited water infrastructure and ongoing climate variability. These results contribute to efforts to reduce localized drought risk by providing a detailed understanding of drought dynamics and the effectiveness of community-based adaptation strategies in Musina.