Mashail M. M. Hamid

Background: Mitogen-activated protein kinase 3 (MAPK3/ERK1) plays a central role in cellular proliferation, inflammation, apoptosis, and survival signalling and has been implicated in oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC), periodontitis, oral lichen planus, and other chronic oral inflammatory diseases. The present study employed an integrated computational workflow combining machine learning (ML)-based quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) modelling, molecular docking, density functional theory (DFT), molecular dynamics (MD) simulation, and MM-GBSA analysis to identify and characterise potent MAPK3 inhibitors. Methods: A curated dataset of 907 experimentally validated MAPK3 inhibitors was retrieved from the ChEMBL database and processed using molecular descriptors and Morgan fingerprints. Multiple ML algorithms were evaluated under scaffold-based validation, with Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) demonstrating the best predictive performance. Results: The final model achieved strong classification capability with ROC-AUC values of 0.898 and 0.926. Feature importance analysis revealed that local structural motifs captured by fingerprint descriptors played dominant roles in MAPK3 inhibitory activity. The top-ranked compounds were subjected to molecular docking, where compounds 58324148 and 137531515 exhibited strong binding affinities of −11.9 and −11.0 kcal/mol, respectively. DFT calculations demonstrated favourable electronic properties with low HOMO–LUMO energy gaps, while MD simulations confirmed stable receptor–ligand interactions throughout 200 ns trajectories. MM-GBSA analysis further supported strong binding stability dominated by van der Waals interactions. Conclusions: Overall, the integrated computational framework successfully identified promising MAPK3 inhibitor candidates with potential therapeutic relevance for oral inflammatory and proliferative diseases.