Nurgali Turmanbetov

The study aims to improve the procedures of state cadastral valuation of agricultural lands by incorporating spatial information on geo-ecological threats. Mudflow-prone plots of the Talgar District in the Almaty Region are examined as a test site. The methodological framework relies on a GIS-overlay that integrates land-use vector boundaries with the Ile-Alatau Mudflow Hazard Typization Map. The transformation of physical disaster characteristics into an economic indicator is carried out through the mathematical toolkit of value functions v(x). The final stage involves calculating the mudflow hazard discounting coefficient (Kc). An analysis of the current regulatory framework (Art. 11 of the Land Code of the RK) revealed a significant methodological gap: the dynamics of exogenous processes are entirely omitted from calculation algorithms. Testing the updated approach on data from nine land parcels demonstrates the necessity of revising base rates. The application of the Kc parameter results in a 49–80% drop in normative value for transit zones, while foothill risk lands receive a fixed price reduction of 30%. The proposed computational model helps mitigate overestimated cadastral values and land lease fees for agricultural enterprises, synchronizing land prices with their actual productivity. The resulting financial discount takes the form of indirect preventive insurance. Responsibility for potential damage is appropriately distributed between the budget and the tenant. Such a practice can protect the budget from unforeseen compensation costs after mudflow events, while simultaneously motivating farmers to invest in the construction of local mudflow protection barriers.