A Review on the Driving Mechanisms of Ecosystem Services Change

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Abstract
Ecosystem services have rapidly changed at the global and regional scales in recent years. Exploring the driving mechanisms of ecosystem services change and projecting future change are of increasing importance to inform policy and decision-making options for ecosystem conservation and sustainable use. Although some research has analyzed the influences of land use or climate changes on ecosystem services, a systematic review on the mechanisms of ecosystem services change has not been carried out so far. This work elaborated on the mechanisms of ecosystem services change based on a literature review, and reached four main conclusions. (1) Climate change and land use jointly determine the ecosystem services change through complex and interacting pathways. (2) Whereas the present research progresses mainly focus on the identification of a single influencing factor, they fail in the determination of multiple influencing factors. (3) Although multi-scenario simulations based on remote sensing and climate models are the main means used to predict future changes in ecosystem services, clarifying the interactive mechanisms of multiple factors is the precondition for future projection of ecosystem services change; (4) Therefore, future research should strengthen the analysis and simulation of the effects of human activities on ecosystem services, especially the development of technology to detect the dynamic responses of ecosystem services to major ecological projects, which is crucial to the selection of restoration measures and the regional arrangement of ecosystem conservation projects.

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