Shi Yunting

Properly managing the relationship between food security, ecological protection, and urbanization, and coordinating the trade-offs among these three factors for land demand are extremely important for environmental management and sustainable development. In this study, we attempt to analyze the state of land use trade-offs from a dynamic perspective in terms of both potential and efficiency. We have innovatively proposed a new land use trade-off analysis framework integrating the Estimation System for Land Productivity (ESLP) model, machine learning algorithms, ecosystem service value assessment, and spatial analysis method. By applying the framework, the potential and efficiency of the three land use functions of urban development, ecological protection, and agricultural production on the Huang-Huai-Hai (HHH) Plain were comprehensively estimated, and the trade-off relationship between the three land use functions was identified. The results showed a prominent conflict between urban development and agricultural production (around 8%) on the HHH Plain, especially in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration and the southern Jiangsu urban agglomeration. In the mountainous areas, such as northern Hebei and central Shandong, there was an obvious trade-off between ecological land and agriculture land. Most cities had a trade-off between ecological land and urban land (approximately 6% of the study area), but it was relatively more relaxed in comparison. Finally, we found that on the HHH Plain, where land resources are fiercely competitive, spatial planning and land resource control depend not only on the suitability or potential of the land unit, but also on whether the efficiency of land use has reached an appropriate range. The smart way to use land resources is to scientifically trade-off different land use functions and improve the efficiency of land use to achieve maximum benefit.

Ecosystem services have rapidly changed at the global and regional scales in recent years. Exploring the driving mechanisms of ecosystem services change and projecting future change are of increasing importance to inform policy and decision-making options for ecosystem conservation and sustainable use. Although some research has analyzed the influences of land use or climate changes on ecosystem services, a systematic review on the mechanisms of ecosystem services change has not been carried out so far. This work elaborated on the mechanisms of ecosystem services change based on a literature review, and reached four main conclusions. (1) Climate change and land use jointly determine the ecosystem services change through complex and interacting pathways. (2) Whereas the present research progresses mainly focus on the identification of a single influencing factor, they fail in the determination of multiple influencing factors. (3) Although multi-scenario simulations based on remote sensing and climate models are the main means used to predict future changes in ecosystem services, clarifying the interactive mechanisms of multiple factors is the precondition for future projection of ecosystem services change; (4) Therefore, future research should strengthen the analysis and simulation of the effects of human activities on ecosystem services, especially the development of technology to detect the dynamic responses of ecosystem services to major ecological projects, which is crucial to the selection of restoration measures and the regional arrangement of ecosystem conservation projects.