Recovery of African rhinoceroses since Covid-19 despite poaching

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Abstract
Evidence suggests that numbers of African rhinoceroses can increase when annual poaching rates remain below 3.5% of the continental population. In 2020, the global response to the Covid-19 pandemic coincided with a poaching rate of 2.3% (the lowest recorded since 2015) suggesting favourable conditions for recovery. This study had two aims: (1) to examine trends in continental poaching rates since 2020 as pandemic-related restrictions eased, and (2) to assess whether reduced poaching rates have translated into growth in rhinoceros numbers. We found that poaching rates remained relatively low during 2020–2023, ranging from 2.3 to 2.5% annually. During this period, the continental rhinoceros population increased at an average annual rate of 2.9% (95% CI 1.7–4.1%), reaching an estimated 23,995 individuals by the end of 2023. However, population trends varied by site, with some areas experiencing declines as a result of localized increases in poaching. These findings highlight the importance of continued efforts to mitigate poaching, address habitat fragmentation, and adapt to broader environmental changes to support the long-term recovery of African rhinoceroses.

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