Interpretable Machine Learning for Multi-Energy Supply Station Revenue Forecasting: A SHAP-Driven Framework to Accelerate Urban Carbon Neutrality

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Abstract
The transition towards carbon neutrality and sustainable urban development necessitates innovative strategies for managing multi-energy supply stations (MESS), which integrate oil, gas, electricity, and hydrogen to support diversified energy demands. Existing revenue prediction models for MESS lack interpretability and multi-energy adaptability, hindering actionable insights for sustainable operations. This study proposes a novel Shapley additive explanations (SHAP)-driven machine learning framework for multi-energy supply station revenue forecasting. By leveraging real-world consumption data from Hangzhou West Lake Tanghe Station, we constructed a dataset with nine critical parameters, including energy types, transaction frequency, and temporal features. Four machine learning models—decision tree regression, random forest (RF), support vector regression, and multilayer perceptron—were evaluated using MAE, MSE, and R2 metrics. The RF model achieved an R2 of 0.98, demonstrating superior accuracy in predicting hourly gross transaction values. SHAP analysis further identified consumption volume and transaction frequency as the most influential factors, providing actionable insights for operational optimization. This research not only advances the scientific management of MESS but also contributes to carbon emission reduction by enabling data-driven resource allocation. The proposed framework offers policymakers and industry stakeholders a scalable tool to accelerate urban energy transitions under carbon neutrality goals, bridging the gap between predictive analytics and sustainable infrastructure planning.
Funding Information
  • Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (LQ23E040004, CSTB2023NSCQ- MSX0050, 32850024-23-ZC0607-0001)
  • Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing, China (LQ23E040004, CSTB2023NSCQ- MSX0050, 32850024-23-ZC0607-0001)
  • Project of Sinopec Sales Co., LTD (LQ23E040004, CSTB2023NSCQ- MSX0050, 32850024-23-ZC0607-0001)

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