Minjuan Wang

Buried-pipeline leakage poses significant safety risks, yet traditional CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) simulations are too slow for real-time diagnosis. This study integrates machine learning with interval sampling to develop a fast and interpretable prediction method. From 1.4 billion CFD-generated data points, 140 million representative samples were extracted via 1:10 interval sampling. Using 17 physical features as inputs, we trained and compared XGBoost, LightGBM, and a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP). The MLP model demonstrated exceptional performance (R² (R-squared) = 0.9988, RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) = 0.0153), significantly outperforming the tree-based models (R² ≈ 0.93). Three independent sampling runs confirmed its robustness (R² coefficient of variation~0%). SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) analysis identified spatial coordinates and leak aperture as the most critical factors, while also revealing the nonlinear influence of soil particle size. This approach offers a high-precision, interpretable, and efficient surrogate model for buried-pipeline leakage warning systems.

The transition towards carbon neutrality and sustainable urban development necessitates innovative strategies for managing multi-energy supply stations (MESS), which integrate oil, gas, electricity, and hydrogen to support diversified energy demands. Existing revenue prediction models for MESS lack interpretability and multi-energy adaptability, hindering actionable insights for sustainable operations. This study proposes a novel Shapley additive explanations (SHAP)-driven machine learning framework for multi-energy supply station revenue forecasting. By leveraging real-world consumption data from Hangzhou West Lake Tanghe Station, we constructed a dataset with nine critical parameters, including energy types, transaction frequency, and temporal features. Four machine learning models—decision tree regression, random forest (RF), support vector regression, and multilayer perceptron—were evaluated using MAE, MSE, and R² metrics. The RF model achieved an R² of 0.98, demonstrating superior accuracy in predicting hourly gross transaction values. SHAP analysis further identified consumption volume and transaction frequency as the most influential factors, providing actionable insights for operational optimization. This research not only advances the scientific management of MESS but also contributes to carbon emission reduction by enabling data-driven resource allocation. The proposed framework offers policymakers and industry stakeholders a scalable tool to accelerate urban energy transitions under carbon neutrality goals, bridging the gap between predictive analytics and sustainable infrastructure planning.