Uncertainty Study and Parameter Optimization of Carbon Footprint Analysis for Fermentation Cylinder

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Abstract
With the rapid development of industry, problems for the ecological environment are increasing day by day, among which carbon pollution is particularly serious. Product carbon emission accounting is the core of sustainable green design. In this paper, the beer fermentation cylinder is taken as an example for low carbon design to get the best combination of design parameters when the carbon emission is the smallest. The life cycle assessment method is used to calculate the carbon footprint of products. In order to analyse the uncertainty and sensitivity of the method, an uncertainty analysis method using data quality characteristics as input of Monte Carlo is proposed. Sensitivity analysis is carried out by multivariate statistical regression and Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (EFAST). The system boundary of fermentation cylinder is determined and the carbon emissions of life cycle are calculated. The quality characteristics of life cycle inventory data (LCI) data are analysed and Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to quantify the uncertainty of LCI. EFAST is used to calculate the sensitivity of LCI and the results are compared with those of multivariate statistical regression to verify the feasibility of the method. Finally, response surface methodology (RSM) is used to optimize the design of parameters. It provides guidance for the establishment of product carbon emission model and low carbon design.