Freezing Prediction Horizon: Quantifying Advanced Warning for Predicting Freezing of Gait in Parkinson’s Disease

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Abstract
Freezing of gait (FoG) prediction is clinically meaningful only when warnings arrive sufficiently early for subsequent action. Therefore, we adopt a Freezing Prediction Horizon (FPH) evaluation that reports prediction performance as a function of the warning horizon before onset, making the lead-time versus reliability trade-off explicit. Within this protocol, we develop a Transformer-based predictor with a progressive self-paced learning strategy and evaluate it on a 55-patient clinical dataset and two public datasets. The horizon–performance curves show that Macro-F1 remains stable up to approximately 2.5 seconds before FoG onset in our dataset, after which a gradual decline is observed. This horizon-based characterization replaces single, fixed ahead-of-onset windows with a continuous method that summarizes achievable advanced time at specified accuracy levels. In this way, it offers a principled basis for setting targets in real-time implementationslinking algorithmic early-warning capacity to the lead times that practical systems may require-while remaining compatible with conventional metrics. By centering evaluation on FPH, this study clarifies how far in advance FoG can be predicted with confidence, and it positions horizon-based assessment as a reproducible complement to standard reporting for future work on deployable FoG prediction. Ultimately, quantifying advance warning is a prerequisite for prevention-oriented use, by indicating whether sufficient time can be reserved for cueing prior to onset.

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