Structural Damage Prediction in a High-Velocity Urban Dam-Break Flood: Field-Scale Assessment of Predictive Skill

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Abstract
Dam safety and flood risk management programs are dependent on damage predictions that are difficult to validate and subject to considerable uncertainty. The 1963 Baldwin Hills dam-break flood caused high-velocity flows exceeding 5 m/s and structural failure of 41 wood-framed residences built in the mid-1940s, 16 of which were completely washed out. The flood is revisited here to examine the predictive skill and variability of established structural damage models when coupled with a hydraulic flood model that predicts parcel-scale depths and velocities. Two-way coupling is introduced so that predictions of structural failure affect localized flood predictions, which in turn affects damage predictions, in contrast to one-way coupling where structural failure has no impact on flood predictions. Two damage states defined by structural failure (Level 2) and washout (Level 3) are considered, along with 10 different structural damage models. One damage model considers flood depth alone, while the remain...

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