Trend and prediction of congenital syphilis in Brazil in the 21st century: A time series study

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Abstract
Objective: To investigate the temporal trend of congenital syphilis in Brazil in the 21st century and to estimate its behavior from 2023 to 2030. Method: Ecological time series study using secondary data extracted from the Informatics Department of the Unified Health System (DATASUS) from 2001 to 2022. The temporal evolution of congenital syphilis was analyzed using crude incidence calculation and the standardized mean incidence rate. Statistical techniques such as Joinpoint and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average were used for time-series analysis and case projections. Results: Over the 22-year period, 302,759 cases of congenital syphilis were reported in Brazil, 51.1% of which occurred between 2017 and 2022. The incidence rate rose from 1.3 in 2001 to 10.3 cases per 1,000 live births in 2022. The temporal analysis showed that four of the five regions showed an increasing trend during the study period. By 2030, projections indicate growth in rates in Brazil (8.3%) and in the following regions: South (11.2%), Southeast (10.5%), North (9.2%), Central-West (8.0%), and Northeast (6.8%). Conclusion: An increase in incidence rates was observed in Brazil and its regions. The temporal analysis showed an upward trend, and projections through 2030 show an increase in cases.

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