Forecasting the Import and Export Values in Turkish Livestock Sector with ATA Analysis

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Abstract
Unlike traditional time-series methods, the ATA analysis method developed in recent years dynamically adjusts the smoothing parameters according to the sample size. In this study, it was aimed to estimate the export and import values of live animal and livestock products for the next five years (2024-2028) using the ATA method, which is one of the time series analyses, by using the previous years’ (2014-2023) values of Türkiye. The study material consisted of export and import values (in dollars) of the "live animals,” "meat/meat products", "milk/milk products+eggs" and "fish and other seafood" categories in Türkiye between 2014 and 2023. The study data were obtained from the records of the Turkish Statistical Institute according to the aforementioned categories in four annual quarters (1st quarter: January, February, March, 2nd quarter: April, May, June, 3rd quarter: July, August, and September, 4th quarter: October, November, December) are presented. ATA method, which is a simple, highly accurate, and automatic forecasting method, was used for data modeling. According to the study findings, it was estimated that the import values of "live animals", "meat/meat products", "milk/milk products+eggs" and "fish and other seafood" may be a total of $1.3 billion, $171 million, $156 million and $299 million, respectively, whereas the export value of the same products may reach $113 million, $1.2 billion, $866 million and $2 billion, respectively in 2028. In conclusion, the ATA analysis method can be used to reveal a perspective in the coming years in terms of foreign trade in the livestock sector, but it should be updated constantly. It has been concluded that such studies can guide policymakers in the country in developing necessary strategies in foreign trade for the future.

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