Demographic responses to climatic changes during the Final Palaeolithic in Europe

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Abstract
The European Final Palaeolithic witnessed marked changes in almost all societal domains. Despite a rich body of evidence, our knowledge of palaeodemographic processes and regional population dynamics still needs to be improved. In this study, we present regionally differentiated estimates of absolute numbers and population densities for the Greenland Interstadial 1d-a (GI-1d-a; 14-12.7 ka BP) and the Greenland Stadial 1 (GS-1; 12.7-11.6 ka BP) for Southern, Western, Northern and Central Europe. The data were obtained by applying the Cologne Protocol, a geostatistical approach for estimating prehistoric population size and density, to a newly compiled dataset of Final Palaeolithic sites. On a large spatio-temporal scale, we observe a shift of the main areas of human occupation from the Franco-Cantabrian region, which was intensely occupied during most phases of the preceding Upper Palaeolithic, to regions north of the Alps. At smaller scales, we observe divergent regional trends in the Final Palaeolithic meta-population: during GI 1d-a, a decreasing population in southwestern Europe and an increasing population in north-eastern Central Europe. For the first time since the dispersal of anatomically modern humans into Europe, we see that Central Europe becomes the dominant demographic growth area. Subsequently, the climatic cooling of GS-1 coincides with a pronounced population decline in most parts of the study area. An apparent increase in population density occurs only in north-eastern Central Europe and north-eastern Italy. Our estimates suggest that the total population was reduced by half. Similar results, with a relationship between decreasing temperatures and decreasing populations, have already been observed for the late phase of the Gravettian, when populations were reduced to only one third of those estimated for the early phase. Yet, in contrast to the collapse of local populations during the late Gravettian, the increase in population densities in Central Europe during GS-1 indicates population movements eastwards, possibly in response to deteriorating climatic conditions, particularly in western regions during the Younger Dryas.

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