The Drought Regime in Southern Africa and Recent Climate Change: Long-Term Trends in Climate Elements, Drought Indices and Descriptors

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Abstract
The impacts of climate change are globally evident and cause significant damage to ecosystems and human activities. These impacts intensify social and economic inequality in Southern Africa (SA), where agriculture is vital for livelihoods and economic development. This study aimed to assess long-term trends in climate elements and parameters relevant to drought regimes in SA to identify drought hotspots and relate them to socioeconomic indicators. The methods include the Theil–Sen slope estimator and the Mann–Kendall statistical significance test. The study analysed ERA5 data for the 1971–2020 to compute the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought indices and descriptors. Results of the trend analysis reveal (i) the existence in almost the entire SA of statistically significant trends of increasing temperature and potential evapotranspiration and decreasing precipitation; (ii) increasing drought risk hotspots in the SPI and SPEI across all timescales, in the north central rainforest region, south and southeast of SA, while decreasing in the northwest coast, central west region, and in the northeast more recently; and (iii) hotspots in the drought descriptors within the same regions, but of a smaller size. Our findings pinpoint drought hotspots in regions with moderate-to-high population density and agricultural systems that involve species vital for food security and of considerable socioeconomic and commercial importance, emphasising the significance of our results for managers and decision-makers.
Funding Information
  • National Funds by FCT–Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (UID/04033/2025, LA/P/0126/2020)

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