Mario Gonzalez Pereira

Climate change poses significant environmental and socio-economic challenges for Small Island Developing States (SIDS), including Timor-Leste. This systematic review aimed to synthesise evidence on climate change impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation pathways, and research gaps in Timor-Leste. Following PRISMA 2020 guidelines, literature searches were conducted in Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar through May 2025. Eligible sources included peer-reviewed studies, technical reports, policy documents, and institutional publications. Source quality was assessed based on relevance, methodological consistency, credibility, and thematic contribution, and evidence was synthesised using a qualitative meta-synthesis approach. A total of 79 peer-reviewed studies and 8 international reports met the eligibility criteria, resulting in a final corpus of 87 documents. The evidence indicates a warming trend of 0.16 °C/decade and a sea-level rise of 5.5 mm/year with significant implications for agriculture, food security, water resources, and coastal systems. Approximately 70% of the population depends on climate-sensitive livelihoods, increasing exposure to climate-related risks. Evidence remains limited by data scarcity and methodological heterogeneity. Overall, Timor-Leste faces substantial climate vulnerability, highlighting the need for strengthened adaptation planning, improved climate information systems, and targeted policy interventions.

As climate change intensifies heat extremes, the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect amplifies local thermal stress. Assessing the UHI using robust observational data, whether ground- and/or satellite-based, is essential for climate risk assessment and evidence-based urban adaptation. Therefore, this study aims to provide a comprehensive climatological assessment of air temperature patterns and UHI intensity across the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA) over a 26-year period (2000–2025). The methodology employs a dense, high-quality integrated network of in-situ weather stations from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) and the National Water Resources Information System (SNIRH). To bridge critical gaps in traditional climate assessments, this research implements a dual-perspective approach that combines the high temporal resolution of MSG-SEVIRI and the spatial precision of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST). This framework accurately captures the lag effects between surface heating and atmospheric response. Validation results demonstrate that satellite-derived LST is a robust proxy for monitoring the nocturnal UHI, with differences generally below 1 °C compared with near-surface air temperature observations (T2m). However, daytime LST significantly overestimates atmospheric temperatures, with deviations of 2–8 °C due to solar radiation and urban geometry. The selection of rural reference stations constitutes a critical methodological factor, as a baseline shift can alter perceived UHI intensities by more than 3 °C. Despite these sensitivities, the results unequivocally confirm a persistent and spatially heterogeneous UHI effect in Lisbon, which intensifies during extreme heat events by up to an additional 4 °C. Analysis of the 2003 and 2018 heatwaves reveals surface LST anomalies exceeding 10 °C and urban–rural thermal differentials reaching up to 7 °C under conditions of suppressed maritime breezes. These nocturnal anomalies are particularly pronounced in densely built-up areas, limiting thermal dissipation and preventing physiological recovery. Integrating multi-sensor satellite data with in-situ validation provides a new benchmark for climate risk assessments, delivering the reliable, reproducible data required to strengthen long-term urban resilience under increasingly frequent extreme heat events.

The impacts of climate change are globally evident and cause significant damage to ecosystems and human activities. These impacts intensify social and economic inequality in Southern Africa (SA), where agriculture is vital for livelihoods and economic development. This study aimed to assess long-term trends in climate elements and parameters relevant to drought regimes in SA to identify drought hotspots and relate them to socioeconomic indicators. The methods include the Theil–Sen slope estimator and the Mann–Kendall statistical significance test. The study analysed ERA5 data for the 1971–2020 to compute the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought indices and descriptors. Results of the trend analysis reveal (i) the existence in almost the entire SA of statistically significant trends of increasing temperature and potential evapotranspiration and decreasing precipitation; (ii) increasing drought risk hotspots in the SPI and SPEI across all timescales, in the north central rainforest region, south and southeast of SA, while decreasing in the northwest coast, central west region, and in the northeast more recently; and (iii) hotspots in the drought descriptors within the same regions, but of a smaller size. Our findings pinpoint drought hotspots in regions with moderate-to-high population density and agricultural systems that involve species vital for food security and of considerable socioeconomic and commercial importance, emphasising the significance of our results for managers and decision-makers.

Drought consequences depend on its type and class and on the preparedness and resistance of communities, which, in turn, depends on the knowledge and capacity to manage this climate disturbance. Therefore, this study aims to assess the drought regime in Southern Africa based on vegetation and meteorological indices. The SPI and SPEI were calculated at different timescales, using ERA5 data for the 1971–2020 period. The results revealed the following: (i) droughts of various classes at different timescales occurred throughout the study period and region; (ii) a greater Sum of Drought Intensity and Number, in all classes, but lower duration and severity of droughts with the SPI than with the SPEI; (iii) drought frequency varies from 1.3 droughts/decade to 4.5 droughts/decade, for the SPI at 12- to 3-month timescales; (iv) the number, duration, severity and intensity of drought present high spatial variability, which tends to decrease with the increasing timescale; (v) the area affected by drought increased, on average, 6.6%/decade with the SPI and 9.1%/decade with the SPEI; and (vi) a high spatial-temporal agreement between drought and vegetation indices that confirm the dryness of vegetation during drought. These results aim to support policymakers and managers in defining legislation and strategies to manage drought and water resources.

Climate change threatens established agricultural systems and production, driving the need for adaptation and mitigation strategies. Vitiforestry, an alternative cultivation system combining trees and shrubs in the vineyard, promotes environmental sustainability and offers a possible adaptation strategy to climate change. This work scrutinizes the impact of shading on vineyards using an Integrated Model of Vineyard Shading and Climate Adaptation (IMVSCA), supported by a system dynamics approach. This model estimates solar radiation and computes daily and annual trends of insolation, air temperature, and relative humidity to shading and its influence on vineyard growth stages. It also assesses the effects of shading-related extreme weather events and the occurrence of grapevine disease development driven by daily weather conditions and zoning adaptations. The pilot results depict the effects of tree shading on vineyards, namely the impacts of solar radiation and air temperature on vine phenology, pollination, pollen germination, fungal diseases, and the complimentary indicators of grape production and quality. Our modeling framework and findings suggest that vitiforestry could be an interesting climate change adaptation technique, providing a starting point for further studies in this scope.

Drought affects human and natural systems, human and animal life and health, and socioeconomic activities. Drought consequences depend on its type and class, but also on the preparedness and resistance of communities to this climate disturbance. In the last decades, droughts accounted for about 16% of the total number of disasters but were responsible for 95% of the number of deaths and 26% of economic losses in Africa. This study aims to assess the drought regime in Southern Africa based on drought and vegetation indices. The SPI and SPEI were calculated at different timescales, using ERA5 data for the 1971 – 2020 period. The spatiotemporal distribution of drought descriptors was analyzed and compared with the patterns of the NDVI, EVI and VCI vegetation indices. The results reveal (i) the occurrence of droughts of various classes and at different timescales throughout the study period and region, (ii) high spatial variability in the number, duration, severity and intensity of drought, which tends to decrease with increasing timescale, (iii) high spatial-temporal agreement between drought and vegetation indices that confirm the dryness of vegetation during drought. These results aim to support policymakers in defining legislation to manage drought and water resources.

Although the influence of climate on the fire regime is unanimously recognized, most publications and studies on this influence are on a global scale. Therefore, this study aims to demonstrate the role of climate in wildfire incidence at the country and regional scale using multivariate statistical analysis and machine learning methods (clustering and classification algorithms). Mainland Portugal was chosen as a case study due to its climate and because it is the European region most affected by wildfires. The results demonstrate the climate signature in the spatial and temporal distribution of the wildfire incidence. The conclusions of the study include (i) the existence of two pyro-regions, with different types of climate (Csb and Csa) composed of NUTS II regions: the northern region composed of the Norte and Centro regions and the southern region composed of Alentejo and Algarve; (ii) the intra-annual variability in the wildfire incidence, characterized by two peaks, one in the spring and the other in the summer, are a consequence of the country’s type of climate; and (iii) how the annual cycle of wildfire incidence varies over the years depends on the weather conditions throughout each year. These results are of fundamental importance for wildfire managers, especially in the context of climate change.

Although the influence of climate on the fire regime is unanimously recognized, most publications are studies on this influence are at the global scale. Therefore, this study aims to demonstrate the role of climate in the incidence of wildfires at the country and regional scale using statistical analysis and machine learning methods. Mainland Portugal was chosen as a case study due to its climate and because it is the European region most affected by wildfires. Results demonstrate the climate signature in the spatial and temporal distribution of the wildfire incidence. The conclusions of the study include (i) the existence of two pyro-regions, with different types of climate (Csb and Csa) composed of NUTS II regions: the northern region composed of the Norte and Centro regions and the southern region composed of Alentejo and Algarve; (ii) the intra-annual variability in the incidence of wildfires, characterized by two peaks, one in spring and the other in summer, are a consequence of the country's type of climate; and, (iii) how the annual cycle of wildfire incidence varies over the years depends on the weather conditions throughout each year. These results are of fundamental importance for wildfire managers, especially in the context of climate change.

It is of paramount importance to discuss and reflect on the influence that climate and land management have on fire regimes and, consequently, on the regional character of fire management. Our focus is on the Iberian Peninsula, although the results and conclusions presented here are common to many other regions of the world with a Mediterranean climate. The discussion is based on the concept of risk, starting with conjunctural risk factors, moving on to structural factors and including their interconnection. Conjunctural risk factors of weather and climate are discussed in the context of requirements for fire to occur, which include the existence of fuels, a state of dryness suitable for combustion and a source of ignition. The influence of climate and weather is discussed at different space–time scales and related to characteristics of vegetation and land management. The roles of atmospheric patterns, types of weather, extreme events, meteorological hazard indices in patterns of fire incidence, their grouping and definition of pyro-regions are presented. Within structural factors, human populations shape fire regimes by changing the ignition patterns, fighting wildfires, modifying landscapes (e.g., urbanization, deforestation and afforestation) and changing land management. Finally, the interconnection between these risk factors in the context of global changes, in particular climate change, and the challenges they pose to the regional landscape, forest and fire management are highlighted.

Drought is one natural disaster with the greatest impact worldwide. Southern Africa (SA) is susceptible and vulnerable to drought due to its type of climate. In the last four decades, droughts have occurred more frequently, with increasing intensity and impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, and health. The work consists of a systematic literature review on the drought regime’s characteristics in the SA under current and future climatic conditions, conducted on the Web of Science and Scopus platforms, using the PRISMA2020 methodology, with usual and appropriate inclusion and exclusion criteria to minimize/eliminate the risk of bias, which lead to 53 documents published after the year 1987. The number of publications on the drought regime in SA is still very small. The country with the most drought situations studied is South Africa, and the countries with fewer studies are Angola and Namibia. The analysis revealed that the main driver of drought in SA is the ocean–atmosphere interactions, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The documents used drought indices, evaluating drought descriptors for some regions, but it was not possible to identify one publication that reports the complete study of the drought regime, including the spatial and temporal distribution of all drought descriptors in SA.