Hans-Werner Hense

Background: The European Guidelines for breast cancer screening suggest that the impact of population-based mammography screening programmes (MSP) may be assessed using the relative reduction in the incidence of advanced breast cancer (ABC, that is, stage UICC II and higher) as a surrogate indicator of screening effectiveness. Methods: This prospective, population register-based study contained individual data of 1,200,246 women (aged 50–69 years) who attended the initial prevalence screening between 2005 and 2009. Of them, 498,029 women returned for the regular (i.e., within 24 months) first subsequent, and 208,561 for the regular second subsequent incidence screenings. The incidence rate of ABC was calculated for the 24-months period following, but not including, the initial screening by incorporating all interval ABCs and all ABCs detected at the regular first incidence screening; the ABC rate for the second 24-months period was determined in the same way, including ABCs detected in the interval after the first and, respectively, at the second incidence screening. The relative reduction in the ABC incidence was derived by comparing the age-standardized rates in these two periods with an age-standardized reference incidence rate, observed in the target population before the MSP implementation. The strengths and weaknesses of this particular study design were contrasted with a recently published checklist of main methodological problems affecting studies of the effect of MSP on ABC incidence. Results: The age-standardized ABC incidence rate was 291.6 per 100,000 women for the 24-months period subsequent to the initial screening, and 275.0/100,000 for the 24-months period following the first subsequent screening. Compared to the 2-year incidence of 349.4/100,000 before the start of the MSP, this amounted to a relative reduction of 16.5 and 21.3%, respectively, in the incidence of ABC among regular MSP participants. Conclusions: The design employed in this study avoids some of the substantial methodological limitations that compromised previous observational studies. Nevertheless, specific limitations prevail that demand a cautious interpretation of the results. Therefore, the study findings, indicating a reduction in ABC for regular MSP participants, need to be followed with respect to potential impacts on breast cancer mortality rates.

Krebserkrankungen gehören auch in Deutschland zu den wichtigsten chronischen Erkrankungen, aber nicht alle sind für eine Krebsfrüherkennung (KFE) geeignet. Im Jahr 1971 wurde die KFE in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland erstmals in den Leistungskatalog der Gesetzlichen Krankenversicherungen aufgenommen. Die Umsetzung der Screenings war jedoch zunächst wenig systematisch. Parallel wurde in der Deutschen Demokratischen Republik eine Diskussion über die Perspektiven der KFE geführt, aber auch hier war erst gegen Ende der 1980er-Jahre ein strukturiertes Screeningprogramm in Vorbereitung. Im Jahr 2008 wurde der Nationale Krebsplan (NKP) ins Leben gerufen, dessen Handlungsfeld 1 den Titel „Weiterentwicklung der Krebsfrüherkennung“ trug. Im April 2013 trat dann das Gesetz zur Weiterentwicklung der Krebsfrüherkennung und zur Qualitätssicherung durch klinische Krebsregister (KFRG) in Kraft, in dem maßgebliche Empfehlungen des NKP aufgegriffen wurden. Nun werden auch in Deutschland die einschlägigen Empfehlungen der Europäischen Union (EU) zum Screening von Krebs in Brust, Cervix und Colon-Rektum aktiv umgesetzt. Bei der Haltung zur KFE wurde in der Öffentlichkeit aus einhelliger Zustimmung in den letzten Jahren eher kritische Distanz. Während ineffektive und ineffiziente Vorgehensweisen durch qualitätsgesicherte Verfahren flächendeckend ersetzt werden, wird die Diskussion über die grundlegende Sinnhaftigkeit der KFE so kontrovers geführt wie nie zuvor. Cancer is one of the most relevant chronic diseases in the German population, but not all neoplastic entities are eligible for early cancer detection (ECD) programs. In 1971, ECDs were introduced as population-wide screenings for the first time in the catalogue of benefits of the West German statutory health insurance funds. However, the implementation at that time was rarely systematic. Concurrently, a discussion on the perspectives of ECD arose in the former German Democratic Republic, where a structured program was not prepared in the country until the late 1980s. A national cancer plan (NCP) was initiated in 2008 and its area of action #1 was titled “Further development of ECD”. In April 2013, the law for the development of early cancer detection and quality assurance by clinical cancer registries was passed, which adopted major suggestions of the NCP. Consequently, the pertinent recommendations of the EU guidelines for the screening of the breast, cervix, and colon-rectum are currently being implemented. Public opinion in Germany with regard to ECDs has changed in recent years from unanimous consent to a rather critical distance. While ineffective and inefficient preventive action is being replaced by quality-assured screening procedures, public discussion about the fundamental reasonability of ECDs is controversial as never before.

The mammography screening program (MSP) that has been introduced stepwise in Germany since 2005 is based on the quality requirements of the European guideline (1, 2) and is designed to detect breast cancer at an early stage. To this end, all women...

Macular pigment (MP) has been related to the occurrence of age related macular degeneration (AMD). We investigated prospectively in eyes of elderly individuals how magnitude and spatial distribution of MP had changed after 4 years. The study included 380 eyes from 237 participants of the Münster Ageing and Retina Study cohort which were free of advanced stages of AMD. MP optical density (MPOD) was measured in density units (D.U.) at eccentricities of 0.25°, 0.5°, 1.0° and 2.0° from the fovea using dual-wavelength autofluorescence; ring-like MP distributions were identified from MP density profiles. Changes were assessed with mixed linear models. The study participants’ mean age at baseline was 70.5 years. Early AMD was present in 150 study eyes (39.5 %) and a ring-like distribution of MPOD was found in 87 study eyes (22.9 %). After a median follow-up time of 3.96 years, the MPOD averaged over all eyes was slightly raised at the central fovea (from 0.658 to 0.670 D.U. (relative change +1.8 %), p = 0.08) and most markedly at 2.0° (from 0.157 to 0.172 D.U. (+9.5 %), p < 0.001). Multivariate analyses, adjusting for sex, body mass and carotenoid supplement intake, revealed that MPOD increments, at any distance from the fovea, were slightly less pronounced in older eyes. Serum concentrations of lutein at follow-up, presumably reflecting recent intake of antioxidant supplements, raised MPOD levels significantly at 1.0° and 2.0° (both p < 0.01) but not in the central fovea. Early AMD at baseline and ring-like MPOD distribution did not significantly impact on MPOD changes over time. A ring-like spatial distribution of MPOD persisted in over 80 % of the affected eyes. Overall, the magnitude and spatial arrangement of MPOD was remarkably stable over time in elderly eyes. Significant MPOD rises in perifoveal regions probably indicate effects of lutein containing supplements. The persistence of ring-like MPOD distributions over time seems to suggest their determination by anatomical structures.

The population-based mammography screening program (MSP) was implemented by the end of 2005 in Germany, and all women between 50 and 69 years are actively invited to a free biennial screening examination. However, despite the expected benefits, the overall participation rates range only between 50 and 55 %. There is also increasing evidence that belonging to a vulnerable population, such as ethnic minorities or low income groups, is associated with a decreased likelihood of participating in screening programs. This study aimed to analyze in more detail the intra-urban variation of MSP uptake at the neighborhood level (i.e. statistical districts) for the city of Dortmund in northwest Germany and to identify demographic and socioeconomic risk factors that contribute to non-response to screening invitations. The numbers of participants by statistical district were aggregated over the three periods 2007/2008, 2009/2010, and 2011/2012. Participation rates were calculated as numbers of participants per female resident population averaged over each 2-year period. Bayesian hierarchical spatial models extended with a temporal and spatio-temporal interaction effect were used to analyze the participation rates applying integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA). The model included explanatory covariates taken from the atlas of social structure of Dortmund. Generally, participation rates rose for all districts over the time periods. However, participation was persistently lowest in the inner city of Dortmund. Multivariable regression analysis showed that migrant status and long-term unemployment were associated with significant increases of non-attendance in the MSP. Low income groups and immigrant populations are clustered in the inner city of Dortmund and the observed spatial pattern of persistently low participation in the city center is likely linked to the underlying socioeconomic gradient. This corresponds with the findings of the ecological regression analysis manifesting socioeconomically deprived neighborhoods as risk factors for low attendance in the MSP. Spatio-temporal surveillance of participation in cancer screening programs may be used to identify spatial inequalities in screening uptake and plan spatially focused interventions.

Smoking kills. The latest data could hardly be more alarming

Monitoring spatial disease risk (e.g. identifying risk areas) is of great relevance in public health research, especially in cancer epidemiology. A common strategy uses case-control studies and estimates a spatial relative risk function (sRRF) via kernel density estimation (KDE). This study was set up to evaluate the sRRF estimation methods, comparing fixed with adaptive bandwidth-based KDE, and how they were able to detect ‘risk areas’ with case data from a population-based cancer registry. The sRRF were estimated within a defined area, using locational information on incident cancer cases and on a spatial sample of controls, drawn from a high-resolution population grid recognized as underestimating the resident population in urban centers. The spatial extensions of these areas with underestimated resident population were quantified with population reference data and used in this study as ‘true risk areas’. Sensitivity and specificity analyses were conducted by spatial overlay of the ‘true risk areas’ and the significant (α=.05) p-contour lines obtained from the sRRF. We observed that the fixed bandwidth-based sRRF was distinguished by a conservative behavior in identifying these urban ‘risk areas’, that is, a reduced sensitivity but increased specificity due to oversmoothing as compared to the adaptive risk estimator. In contrast, the latter appeared more competitive through variance stabilization, resulting in a higher sensitivity, while the specificity was equal as compared to the fixed risk estimator. Halving the originally determined bandwidths led to a simultaneous improvement of sensitivity and specificity of the adaptive sRRF, while the specificity was reduced for the fixed estimator. The fixed risk estimator contrasts with an oversmoothing tendency in urban areas, while overestimating the risk in rural areas. The use of an adaptive bandwidth regime attenuated this pattern, but led in general to a higher false positive rate, because, in our study design, the majority of true risk areas were located in urban areas. However, there is a strong need for further optimizing the bandwidth selection methods, especially for the adaptive sRRF.