Zoltán Varga

We propose a conceptual model for pollination and fertilization of tomato flowers in greenhouses crops by hoverflies, when the maximal number of adult pollinators maintained by the crops is less than what is needed for an economically successful pollination in greenhouses. The model consists of a two-stage process for additional feeding of hoverfly to maintain the pollinator density at the economically desired level. First, with a stochastic model, we calculate the density of flies necessary for the economically successful pollination, determined according to the economically expected yield. Second, using a deterministic optimal control model, we find a minimum cost supplementary feeding strategy. In summary, we theoretically demonstrate, at the present stage of the research without validations in case studies, that optimal supplementary feeding can maintain the economically desired hoverfly density.

For the understanding of human nature, the evolutionary roots of human moral behaviour are a key precondition. Our question is as follows: Can the altruistic moral rule “Risk your life to save your family members, if you want them to save your life” be evolutionary stable? There are three research approaches to investigate this problem: kin selection, group selection and population genetics modelling. The present study is strictly based on the last approach. We consider monogamous and exogamous families, where at an autosomal locus, dominant-recessive alleles determine the phenotypes in a sexual population. Since all individuals’ survival rate is determined by their altruistic family members, we introduce a new population genetics model based on the mating table approach and adapt the verbal definition of evolutionary stability to genotypes. In general, when the resident is recessive, a homozygote is an evolutionarily stable genotype (ESG), if the number of survivors of the resident genotype of the resident homozygote family is greater than that of non-resident heterozygote survivors of the family of the resident homozygote and mutant heterozygote genotypes. Using the introduced genotype dynamics we proved that in the recessive case ESG implies local stability of the altruistic genotype. We apply our general ESG conditions for self-sacrificing life history strategy when the number of new-born offspring does not depend on interactions within the family and the interactions are additive. We find that in this case our ESG conditions give back Hamilton’s rule for evolutionary stability of the self-sacrificing life history strategy. In spite of the fact that the kidney transplantations was not a selection factor during the earlier human evolution, nowadays “self-sacrificing” can be observed in the live donor kidney transplantations, when the donor is one of the family members. It seems that selection for self-sacrificing in family produced an innate moral tendency in modulating social cognition in human brain.

In ecology, if the considered area or space is large, the spatial distribution of individuals of a given plant species is never homogeneous; plants form different patches. The homogeneity change in space or in time (in particular, the related change-point problem) is an important research subject in mathematical statistics. In the paper, for a given data system along a straight line, two areas are considered, where the data of each area come from different discrete distributions, with unknown parameters. In the paper a method is presented for the estimation of the distribution change-point between both areas and an estimate is given for the distributions separated by the obtained change-point. The solution of this problem will be based on the maximum likelihood method. Furthermore, based on an adaptation of the well-known bootstrap resampling, a method for the estimation of the so-called change-interval is also given. The latter approach is very general, since it not only applies in the case of the maximum-likelihood estimation of the change-point, but it can be also used starting from any other change-point estimation known in the ecological literature. The proposed model is validated against typical ecological situations, providing at the same time a verification of the applied algorithms.