Joshua Musinguzi

Background: Model-based small area estimation methods can help generate parameter estimates at the district level, where planned population survey sample sizes are not large enough to support direct estimates of HIV prevalence with adequate precision. We computed district-level HIV prevalence estimates and their 95% confidence intervals for districts in Uganda. Methods: Our analysis used direct survey and model-based estimation methods, including Fay-Herriot (area-level) and Battese-Harter-Fuller (unit-level) small area models. We used regression analysis to assess for consistency in estimating HIV prevalence. We use a ratio analysis of the mean square error and the coefficient of variation of the estimates to evaluate precision. The models were applied to Uganda Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment 2016/2017 data with auxiliary information from the 2016 Lot Quality Assurance Sampling survey and antenatal care data from district health information system datasets for unit-level and area-level models, respectively. Results: Estimates from the model-based and the direct survey methods were similar. However, direct survey estimates were unstable compared with the model-based estimates. Area-level model estimates were more stable than unit-level model estimates. The correlation between unit-level and direct survey estimates was (β₁ = 0.66, r² = 0.862), and correlation between area-level model and direct survey estimates was (β₁ = 0.44, r² = 0.698). The error associated with the estimates decreased by 37.5% and 33.1% for the unit-level and area-level models, respectively, compared to the direct survey estimates. Conclusions: Although the unit-level model estimates were less precise than the area-level model estimates, they were highly correlated with the direct survey estimates and had less standard error associated with estimates than the area-level model. Unit-level models provide more accurate and reliable data to support local decision-making when unit-level auxiliary information is available.

Introduction: HIV‐related risks may be exacerbated in humanitarian contexts. Uganda hosts 1.3 million refugees, of which 60% are aged under 18. There are knowledge gaps regarding HIV testing facilitators and barriers, including HIV and intersecting stigmas, among urban refugee youth. In response, we explored experiences and perspectives towards HIV testing strategies, including HIV self‐testing, with urban refugee youth in Kampala, Uganda.Methods: We implemented a qualitative study with refugee cisgender youth aged 16 to 24 living in Kampala's informal settlements from February‐April 2019. We conducted five focus groups with refugee youth, including two with adolescent boys and young men, two with adolescent girls and young women and one with female sex workers. We also conducted five key informant (KI) interviews with government, non‐government and community refugee agencies and HIV service providers. We conducted thematic analyses to understand HIV testing experiences, perspectives and recommendations.Results: Participants (n = 49) included young men (n = 17) and young women (n = 27) originally from the Democratic Republic of Congo [DRC] (n = 29), Rwanda (n = 11), Burundi (n = 3) and Sudan (n = 1), in addition to five KI (gender: n = 3 women, n = 2 men; country of origin: n = 2 Rwanda, n = 2 Uganda, n = 1 DRC). Participant narratives revealed stigma drivers included fear of HIV infection; misinformation that HIV is a “Ugandan disease”; and blame and shame for sexual activity. Stigma facilitators included legal precarity regarding sex work, same‐sex practices and immigration status, alongside healthcare mistreatment and confidentiality concerns. Stigma experiences were attributed to the social devaluation of intersecting identities (sex work, youth, refugees, sexual minorities, people living with HIV, women). Participants expressed high interest in HIV self‐testing. They recommended HIV self‐testing implementation strategies to be peer supported and expressed concerns regarding sexual‐ and gender‐based violence with partner testing.Conclusions: Intersecting stigma rooted in fear, misinformation, blame and shame, legal precarity and healthcare mistreatment constrain current HIV testing strategies with urban refugee youth. Findings align with the Health Stigma and Discrimination Framework that conceptualizes stigma drivers and facilitators that devalue intersecting health conditions and social identities. Findings can inform multi‐level strategies to foster enabling HIV testing environments with urban refugee youth, including tackling intersecting stigma and leveraging refugee youth peer support.

Access to HIV services among men who have sex with men (MSM) and female sex workers (FSWs) remains suboptimal globally. While the reasons for this dismal performance have been documented, limited evidence exists on the experiences, perceptions and readiness of health providers to provide HIV services to MSM and FSWs. This analysis uses data collected from 48 key informants (health providers in public and private health facilities) as part of a larger study conducted in 12 districts of Uganda between October and December 2013. Data were collected on health providers’ experiences and readiness to provide HIV services to MSM and FSWs and their perceptions on the effect of existing legislation on HIV services provision to MSM and FSWs. Data were captured verbatim, transcribed and analyzed following a thematic framework approach. All health providers reported that they had ever provided HIV services to FSWs and a majority of them were comfortable serving them. However, no health provider had ever served MSM. When asked if they would be willing to serve MSM, nearly three-quarters of the health providers indicated that they would be bound by the call of duty to serve them. However, some health providers reported that they “would feel very uncomfortable” handling MSM because they engage in “a culture imported into our country”. A majority of the health providers felt that they did not have adequate skills to effectively serve MSM and called for specific training to improve their clinical skills. There were mixed reactions as to whether existing criminal laws would affect MSM or FSWs access to HIV services but there was agreement that access to HIV services, under the existing laws, would be more constrained for MSM than FSWs since society “does not blame FSWs [as much as it does] with MSM”. A majority of the health providers were generally comfortable serving FSWs but there were strong homophobic tendencies towards MSM. A majority of the health providers lacked skills in how to handle MSM. Interventions aimed at improving health providers’ skills in handling MSM while minimizing the negative attitude towards them are urgently needed.

The World Health Organization recommends that countries conduct two phase evaluations of HIV rapid tests (RTs) in order to come up with the best algorithms. In this report, we present the first ever such evaluation in Uganda, involving both blood and oral based RTs. The role of weak positive (WP) bands on the accuracy of the individual RT and on the algorithms was also investigated. In total 11 blood based and 3 oral transudate kits were evaluated. All together 2746 participants from seven sites, covering the four different regions of Uganda participated. Two enzyme immunoassays (EIAs) run in parallel were used as the gold standard. The performance and cost of the different algorithms was calculated, with a pre-determined price cut-off of either cheaper or within 20% price of the current algorithm of Determine + Statpak + Unigold. In the second phase, the three best algorithms selected in phase I were used at the point of care for purposes of quality control using finger stick whole blood. We identified three algorithms; Determine + SD Bioline + Statpak; Determine + Statpak + SD Bioline, both with the same sensitivity and specificity of 99.2% and 99.1% respectively and Determine + Statpak + Insti, with sensitivity and specificity of 99.1% and 99% respectively as having performed better and met the cost requirements. There were 15 other algorithms that performed better than the current one but rated more than the 20% price. None of the 3 oral mucosal transudate kits were suitable for inclusion in an algorithm because of their low sensitivities. Band intensity affected the performance of individual RTs but not the final algorithms. We have come up with three algorithms we recommend for public or Government procurement based on accuracy and cost. In case one algorithm is preferred, we recommend to replace Unigold, the current tie breaker with SD Bioline. We further recommend that all the 18 algorithms that have shown better performance than the current one are made available to the private sector where cost may not be a limiting factor.

Disclosure of HIV positive status to sexual partners is promoted by HIV prevention programs including those targeting the prevention of mother-to-child transmission. Among other benefits, disclosure may enhance spousal support and reduce stigma, violence and discrimination. HIV status disclosure and associated outcomes were assessed among a cohort of women, newly initiating lifelong antiretroviral therapy in Uganda between October 2013 and May 2014. This was a mixed method study, drawing data from a prospective cohort study of 507 HIV positive pregnant women on lifelong antiretroviral therapy, who were followed for four months to determine disclosure and its outcomes. Women were recruited from three facilities for the cohort study; in addition, fifty-seven women were recruited to participate in qualitative interviews from six facilities. Factors associated with spousal support and negative outcomes were determined using random-effects logistic regression in two separate models, with prevalence ratio as measure of association. In-depth interviews were used to document experiences with disclosure of HIV status. Overall HIV status disclosure to at least one person was high [(375/507), 83.7%]. Nearly three-quarters [(285/389), 73.3%], had disclosed to their spouse by the fourth month of follow up post-enrolment. Among married women, spousal support was high at the first 330/407 (81.1%) and second follow-up 320/389 (82.2%). The majority of women who reported spousal support for either antenatal care or HIV-related care services had disclosed their HIV status to their spouses (adj.PR = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.02–1.34). However, no significant differences were observed in the proportion of self-reported negative outcomes by HIV status disclosure (adj.PR = 0.89; 95% CI: 0.56–1.42). Qualitative findings highlighted stigma and fear of negative outcomes as the major barriers to disclosure. HIV status disclosure to partners by pregnant women on lifelong antiretroviral therapy was associated with increased spousal support, but was impeded by fear of adverse outcomes such as stigma, discrimination and violence. Interventions to reduce negative outcomes could enhance HIV status disclosure.

The successful scale-up of safe male circumcision (SMC) in Uganda has been hinged on client’s safety and quality of services. However, after the recent three tetanus deaths after circumcision a review of all tetanus cases in one of the hospitals where the cases occurred was initiated. This was to ascertain the potential for an association between tetanus infection and circumcision. Routinely collected national data were also reviewed to determine the burden of tetanus in Uganda and contextualize these incidents. A review of medical charts of tetanus cases identified from the inpatients registry at Masafu hospital, Busia district for the period 2009/2010–2013/2014. Data were abstracted from the inpatients registries, charts and HMIS annual reports, and a key informant interview conducted with the in-charge of the ward that treats tetanus patients. All quantitative data were captured in an electronic database. Routine facility data from the National District health Information Software-2 (DHIS-2) for all the 112 districts were also used. Descriptive analysis and Poisson regression models were used for statistical analysis using STATA version 13.0. Data from the routine DHIS-2 showed a high and increasing burden of tetanus from the emergency/out-patient department records over the 4 year period, highest among females aged 5+ years in all the regions. At the Masafa hospital, the chart review revealed a total of 25 tetanus cases and all were males. Nearly a third (32 %) was aged 7–15 years, with no evidence of circumcision apart from only one case. The rate of tetanus infection among male inpatients over the review period was 2–6 per 1000. The case fatality rate was nearly a half (47.4 %) with deaths occurring within 2 days after admission, and rates of patients’ self-discharge against medical advice were high, 36.8 %. The most common tetanus entry wounds were due to road traffic accidents, followed by diabetic foot. Anti-tetanus serum was only not readily available. The burden of tetanus is increasing, especially among females aged 5+ years. Tetanus entry wounds among the inpatients in Masafa hospital were mostly due to road traffic accidents, and young males. The tetanus case fatality was very high (47.4 %) and so was patient requested discharge. There is a need to do more to protect the population against tetanus infection, especially among females, and males who need either initial or booster tetanus immunization as SMC is scaled up.

Adolescents have gained increased attention because they are the only age group where HIV related mortality is going up. We set out to describe the level and factors associated with adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) as well as the 1 year retention in care among adolescents in 10 representative districts in Uganda. In addition, we explored the barriers and facilitators of adherence to ART among adolescents. The study involved 30 health facilities from 10 representative districts in Uganda. We employed both qualitative and quantitative data collection methods in convergent design. The former involved Focus group discussions with adolescents living with HIV, Key informant interviews with various stakeholders and in depth interviews with adolescents. The quantitative involved using retrospective records review to extract the last recorded adherence level from all adolescents who were active in HIV care. Factors associated with adherence were extracted from the ART cards. For the 1 year retention in care, we searched the hospital records of all adolescents in the 30 facilities who had started ART 1 year before the study to find out how many were still in care. Out of 1824 adolescents who were active on ART, 90.4 % (N = 1588) had ≥95 % adherence recorded on their ART cards at their last clinic visit. Only location in rural health facilities was independently associated with poor adherence to ART (P = 0.008, OR 2.64 [1.28 5.43]). Of the 156 adolescents who started ART, 90 % (N = 141) were still active in care 1 year later. Stigma, discrimination and disclosure issues were the most outstanding of all barriers to adherence. Other barriers included poverty, fatigue, side effects, pill burden, depression among others. Facilitators of adherence mainly included peer support groups, counseling, supportive health care workers, short waiting time and provision of food and transport. Adherence to ART was good among adolescents. Being in rural areas was associated with poor adherence to ART and 1 year retention in care was very good among adolescents who were newly started on ART. Stigma and disclosure issues continue to be the main barriers to adherence among adolescents.

HIV programs in generalized epidemics have traditionally relied on antenatal clinic (ANC) sentinel surveillance data to guide prevention and to model epidemic trends. ANC data, however, come from a subset of the population, and their representativeness of the population has been debated. Data from a national population-based Uganda HIV/AIDS Sero-Behavioral Survey (UHSBS) were compared with those from ANC sentinel surveillance. Using geographic information system, UHSBS clusters within a 30 km radius of the ANC sites were mapped. Estimates of HIV prevalence from ANC surveillance were compared with those from UHSBS. The ANC-based HIV prevalence, 6.0% [confidence interval (CI) 5.5% to 6.5%], was similar to that from UHSBS, 5.9% (CI 5.4% to 6.4%). The ANC-based estimate correlated with that of UHSBS catchment area women who were pregnant and those who had given birth in the 2 years preceding the survey. ANC data overestimated prevalence in the 15-year to 19-year age group, were similar to UHSBS for ages 20-29 years, and underestimated prevalence in older respondents. ANC data underestimated HIV prevalence among women (6.0% vs. 7.4%; CI 6.6% to 8.2%) and urban women (7.6% vs. 12.7%) but was similar for rural women (5.3% vs. 4.9%). ANC-based surveillance remains an important tool for monitoring HIV/AIDS programs. ANC and UHSBS data were similar overall and for 15-year to 29-year olds, women who were pregnant, and women who had a birth in the 2 years before the survey. ANC estimates were lower in those > or = 30 years and in urban areas. Periodic serosurveys to adjust ANC-based estimates are needed.