Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir

Drought monitoring across heterogeneous climate regions requires explicit modeling of drought persistence rather than relying solely on index classification. We develop a Bayesian spatial, duration-augmented framework for drought persistence that captures both temporal memory and spatial dependence. Because persistence estimates depend on the underlying drought index, we also assess the influence of (i) reference evapotranspiration (RET) formulations and (ii) the choice of probability distribution used to standardize the climatic water balance. The framework is applied to a high-resolution (0.25$^\circ \times$ 0.25$^\circ$) dataset over 730 grid cells across Italy.The choice of RET formulation (Penman-Monteith, Hargraves, Thornthwaite) has only a marginal influence on the overall drought signal: spatially averaged SPEI series at the 3-, 6-, and 12-month scales are nearly identical across methods. By contrast, the proposed bulk-and-tails (BATs) distribution substantially improves index estimation, consistently outperforming commonly used alternative models across all RET methods and timescales and achieving normality acceptance rates of 98.4\%--99.9\% compared to 37\%--92\% for the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and 0\%--30\% for others. The spatial duration-augmented model further outperforms a nonspatial counterpart, producing spatially continuous, uncertainty-aware recovery and survival fields. Results reveal a strong south-north gradient in temporal memory: southern peninsular and island regions (Sicily, Sardinia) exhibit pronounced persistence and duration-dependent recovery hazards, whereas northern and Alpine regimes show near-zero duration dependence. Overall, drought characterization is far more sensitive to the distributional and persistence assumptions than to the RET formulation, and duration-insensitive classifications systematically understate extended drought risk in southern Italy.

Reanalysis products such as the ERA5 reanalysis are commonly used as proxies for observed atmospheric conditions. These products are convenient to use due to their global coverage, the large number of available atmospheric variables and the physical consistency between these variables, as well as their relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions. However, despite the continuous improvements in accuracy and increasing spatial and temporal resolutions of reanalysis products, they may not always capture local atmospheric conditions, especially for highly localised variables such as precipitation. This paper proposes a computationally efficient stochastic downscaling of ERA5 temperature and precipitation. The method combines information from ERA5 and surface observations from nearby stations in a non-linear regression framework that combines generalised additive models (GAMs) with regression splines and auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models to produce realistic time series of local daily temperature and precipitation. Using a wide range of evaluation criteria that address different properties of the data, the proposed framework is shown to improve the representation of local temperature and precipitation compared to ERA5 at over 4000 locations in Europe over a period of more than 70 years.

Reanalysis products such as the ERA5 reanalysis are commonly used as proxies for observed atmospheric conditions. These products are convenient to use due to their global coverage, the large number of available atmospheric variables and the physical consistency between these variables, as well as their relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions. However, despite the continuous improvements in accuracy and increasing spatial and temporal resolutions of reanalysis products, they may not always capture local atmospheric conditions, especially for highly localised variables such as precipitation. This paper proposes a computationally efficient stochastic downscaling of ERA5 temperature and precipitation. The method combines information from ERA5 and surface observations from nearby stations in a non-linear regression framework that combines generalised additive models (GAMs) with regression splines and auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models to produce realistic time series of local daily temperature and precipitation. Using a wide range of evaluation criteria that address different properties of the data, the proposed framework is shown to improve the representation of local temperature and precipitation compared to ERA5 at over 4000 locations in Europe over a period of 60 years.

Many natural systems are observed as point patterns in time, space, or space and time. Examples include plant and cellular systems, animal colonies, earthquakes and wildfires. In practice, the locations of the points are not always observed correctly. However, in the point process literature, there has been relatively scant attention paid to the issue of errors in the location of points. In this paper, we discuss how the observed point pattern may deviate from the actual point pattern and review methods and models that exist to handle such deviations. The discussion is supplemented with several scientific illustrations.

Reanalysis products such as the ERA5 reanalysis are commonly used as proxies for observed atmospheric conditions. These products are convenient to use due to their global coverage, the large number of available atmospheric variables and the physical consistency between these variables, as well as their relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions. However, despite the continuous improvements in accuracy and increasing spatial and temporal resolutions of reanalysis products, they may not always capture local atmospheric conditions, especially for highly localised variables such as precipitation. This paper proposes a computationally efficient stochastic downscaling of ERA5 temperature and precipitation. The method combines information from ERA5 and surface observations from nearby stations in a non-linear regression framework that combines generalised additive models (GAMs) with regression splines and auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models to produce realistic time series of local daily temperature and precipitation. Using a wide range of evaluation criteria that address different properties of the data, the proposed framework is shown to improve the representation of local temperature and precipitation compared to ERA5 at over 4000 locations in Europe over a period of 60 years.

Reanalysis products such as the ERA5 reanalysis are commonly used as proxies for observed atmospheric conditions. These products are convenient to use due to their global coverage, the large number of available atmospheric variables and the physical consistency between these variables, as well as their relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions. However, despite the continuous improvements in accuracy and increasing spatial and temporal resolutions of reanalysis products, they may not always capture local atmospheric conditions, especially for highly localised variables such as precipitation. This paper proposes a computationally efficient stochastic downscaling of ERA5 temperature and precipitation. The method combines information from ERA5 and surface observations from nearby stations in a non-linear regression framework that combines generalised additive models (GAMs) with regression splines and auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models to produce realistic time series of local daily temperature and precipitation. Using a wide range of evaluation criteria that address different properties of the data, the proposed framework is shown to improve the representation of local temperature and precipitation compared to ERA5 at over 4000 locations in Europe over a period of 60 years.

Reanalysis products such as the ERA5 reanalysis are commonly used as proxies for observed atmospheric conditions. These products are convenient to use due to their global coverage, the large number of available atmospheric variables and the physical consistency between these variables, as well as their relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions. However, despite the continuous improvements in accuracy and increasing spatial and temporal resolutions of reanalysis products, they may not always capture local atmospheric conditions, especially for highly localised variables such as precipitation. This paper proposes a computationally efficient stochastic downscaling of ERA5 temperature and precipitation. The method combines information from ERA5 and surface observations from nearby stations in a non-linear regression framework that combines generalised additive models (GAMs) with regression splines and auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models to produce realistic time series of local daily temperature and precipitation. Using a wide range of evaluation criteria that address different properties of the data, the proposed framework is shown to improve the representation of local temperature and precipitation compared to ERA5 at over 4000 locations in Europe over a period of 60 years.