Sumeet Lal

Inflation expectations are central to monetary policy transmission, yet relatively little is known about whether individuals’ own investment experiences are associated with how they form such expectations across different forecast horizons. This study examines the association between self-reported past investment performance and horizon-specific expected cumulative consumer price changes at the one-, three-, and five-year horizons using a large-scale online survey of 157,523 active Japanese investors. Because the survey asks respondents how consumer prices will change over each horizon, the three- and five-year responses are interpreted as expected cumulative price changes rather than annualized inflation rates. Ordered probit models are estimated while controlling for demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral characteristics. The results show a horizon-dependent conditional association: self-reported investment performance is not significantly associated with one-year expectations in the full specification, whereas it is positively and significantly associated with three- and five-year expectations. Formal stacked OLS interaction tests indicate that the association differs significantly across horizons, and additional threshold-specific probit models show that the pattern is most evident for moderate inflation-expectation thresholds. The economic magnitudes are statistically precise but modest. Heterogeneity analyses further suggest that the association is weaker among respondents with higher financial literacy and higher assets, and stronger among respondents with a more myopic view of the future. Because the analysis relies on cross-sectional observational data and subjective performance measures, the findings should be interpreted as conditional associations rather than causal effects.

Inflation expectations play an important role in monetary transmission, yet little is known about whether digital financial literacy (DFL) is associated with how individuals form such expectations across different forecasting horizons. This study examines the association between DFL and inflation expectations at the one-, three-, and five-year horizons using a large-scale online survey of more than 150,000 Japanese investors. DFL is measured as a multidimensional construct capturing digital and financial knowledge, awareness and use of digital financial services, financial attitudes and behaviors, and self-protection capabilities. Ordered probit models are employed to estimate the association between DFL and horizon-specific inflation expectations while controlling for demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral characteristics. The results indicate a clear horizon-dependent pattern. Higher DFL is negatively associated with one-year-ahead inflation expectations but positively associated with inflation expectations at the three- and five-year horizons. Marginal-effects estimates indicate that higher DFL shifts the short-run distribution toward lower inflation categories, but shifts the medium- and long-run distributions toward higher inflation categories. These findings are consistent with the possibility that individuals with higher DFL process short-term and longer-term inflation-related information differently. However, because the analysis is based on cross-sectional observational data, the results should be interpreted as conditional associations rather than causal effects.

Investors’ ability to retain investments during bearish and uncertain market periods is a crucial behavioral trait for long-term wealth accumulation and reduces market instability. Nevertheless, little is understood about how digital financial literacy (DFL) shapes the capacity of increasingly digitalized financial environments. This study investigates the links between DFL and investment grip among Japanese active investors—defined here, following conventional Japanese regulatory and research practice, as individuals who maintain a securities account and have engaged with an online brokerage within the past year—building on several theoretical perspectives from behavioral science. Using survey data from 149,261 individuals with an active account at Rakuten Securities, we estimated ordered probit regression models as the main specification. The findings showed a strong positive association between DFL and investment grip, even after accounting for demographic, socioeconomic, as well as cognitive attributes. These results are supported by robustness tests employing a probit model with a binary outcome. The sample consists exclusively of digitally active retail investors; the findings are therefore most directly applicable to this subpopulation. Overall, the evidence suggests that DFL fosters investors’ capacity to endure market volatility by promoting rational decision-making and reducing panic-driven selloffs. This study offers new empirical findings that will help promote financial resilience in technology-driven markets.

The digitalization of financial systems has intensified risks such as cyber fraud, data breaches, and financial exclusion, particularly for individuals with low digital financial literacy (DFL). As digital finance becomes ubiquitous, DFL has emerged as a critical competency. However, the determinants of DFL remain insufficiently explored. This study aims to validate a comprehensive, theory-driven model that identifies the key sociodemographic, economic, and psychological factors that influence DFL acquisition among investors. Drawing on six established learning and behavioral theories—we analyze data from 158,169 active account holders in Japan through ordinary least squares regression. The results show that higher levels of DFL are associated with being male, younger or middle-aged, highly educated, and unemployed and having greater household income and assets. In contrast, being married, having children, holding a myopic view of the future, and high risk aversion are linked to lower DFL. Interaction effects show a stronger income–DFL association for males and a diminishing return for reduced education with age. Robustness checks using a probit model with a binary DFL measure confirmed the OLS results. These findings highlight digital inequalities and behavioral barriers that shape DFL acquisition. This study contributes a validated framework for identifying at-risk groups and supports future interventions to enhance inclusive digital financial capabilities in increasingly digital economies.

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted global health, particularly influencing healthcare-seeking behavior in rural areas where infrastructure and literacy are limited. However, empirical studies on the role of knowledge of COVID-19 symptoms in health facility visits remain scarce. Applying the Health Belief Model, this study hypothesizes that greater knowledge of symptoms of COVID-19 enhances the likelihood of visiting healthcare facilities in rural India due to increased perceived susceptibility and severity, thereby encouraging a timely medical visit. Utilizing a dataset of 1,950 respondents from the 2020 Round 1 of the COVID-19 Related Shocks Survey in Rural India, conducted by the World Bank and its collaborators, mean comparison tests and probit regression analysis were employed to investigate this relationship. The findings indicate that greater knowledge of the symptoms of COVID-19 significantly increases the likelihood of visits to the health facility. Additional factors influencing healthcare utilization include age, age squared, female gender, rich states, higher household consumption expenditure, no schooling and few interaction terms. The robustness of these findings was confirmed through Maximum Likelihood Estimation. The results underscore the importance of targeted health education and awareness campaigns to enhance health literacy and promote timely healthcare-seeking behavior during pandemics, especially in resource-limited rural settings.

Introduction: Under the profound impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, loneliness has become a major public health concern worldwide. This study is conducted to systematically evaluate existing literature on loneliness during the pandemic to identify research trends and knowledge gaps for future studies and policy developments. Methods: Original articles and reviews related to COVID-19 loneliness, published from 2020 to 2023, were retrieved from the Web of Science database. Research collaboration and keyword co-occurrence analyses were performed using VOSviewer software. Latent Dirichlet Allocation algorithm from STATA was used to analyze common topics and research trends. Results: From 2020 to 2023, a total of 3,817 publications on COVID-19 loneliness were extracted. Regarding international collaboration, the United States and England produced the largest research output and had the most extensive network collaboration with other countries in the field. Main research topics included the risk factors for loneliness during the pandemic, its impacts on people’s well-being, and social support interventions. However, there is a lack of research on adolescents, children, and behavioral changes such as increased smoking, unhealthy alcohol consumption, and substance use due to loneliness during the pandemic. Conclusions: Our study highlights an increasing interest in research on loneliness during the pandemic and suggests the need for enhanced global cooperation between developed and developing countries. Moreover, researchers and policymakers should focus more on the long-term effects of COVID-19 loneliness on adolescents and children, behavioral lifestyle changes, as well as targeted social support programs using family-based interventions and communication technologies.

Asset accumulation in later life is a pressing issue in Japan due to the growing gap between life expectancy (87.14 years for women, 81.09 years for men in 2023) and the retirement age (65 or less). This gap heightens financial insecurity, emphasizing the need to meet asset goals by 65. Hyperbolic discounting, driven by present-biased preferences, often hinders this process, but empirical evidence for those aged 65 and older remains limited. Moreover, prior research has overlooked the varying impacts of hyperbolic discounting across different wealth levels. This study addresses these gaps by analyzing data from 6709 active Japanese investors aged over 65 (2023 wave) using probit regression. Wealth thresholds are categorized into four levels: JPY 20 million, JPY 30 million, JPY 50 million, and JPY 100 million. The results show that hyperbolic discounting significantly impairs asset accumulation at the JPY 100 million level but not at lower thresholds. This effect likely reflects the complex nature of hyperbolic discounting, which primarily affects long-term savings and investments. The findings underscore the importance of addressing hyperbolic discounting in later-life financial planning. Recommendations include implementing automatic savings plans, enhancing financial literacy, and incorporating behavioral insights into planning tools to support better asset accumulation outcomes.

Hyperbolic discounting is a psychological phenomenon in which individuals prioritize smaller immediate rewards over larger future rewards. Time-inconsistent behavior is deemed irrational as it negatively impacts savings and investment, investment in financial knowledge, and long-term financial and personal well-being. This study hypothesizes that improving financial knowledge, promoting positive financial behavior, and fostering a future-oriented financial attitude can mitigate hyperbolic discounting bias and that these three components of financial literacy enable investors to make long-term economic decisions maximizing utility. We analyzed the responses of 114,170 active investors in Japan to examine the interactions between financial knowledge, behavior, and attitude. Our findings reveal a strong negative relationship between these dimensions and hyperbolic discounting, underscoring their crucial role in shaping individuals’ intertemporal preferences. For researchers, our results highlight the need to integrate multidimensional aspects of financial literacy into investigations of intertemporal discounting behaviors. Policymakers should implement holistic financial education programs that improve knowledge, transform behavior, and shape attitudes. Financial institutions and advisors should prioritize programs that mitigate hyperbolic discounting tendencies among clients. This study represents a significant advancement in the research on financial literacy, offering a comprehensive framework for future studies and practical applications aimed at improving financial decision-making outcomes.

In financial markets, irrational behaviors such as hyperbolic discounting and panic selling are prevalent. However, their widespread empirical associations remain unexplored. Numerous behavioral theories discuss how cognitive biases exacerbate panic selling through the lens of immediate loss aversion, a phenomenon in which individuals exhibit impulsive decision-making tendencies due to an intense fear of financial loss during market upheaval. Despite the theoretical elucidation, empirical investigations of these dynamics are lacking. Using a robust dataset comprising 121,293 active investors sourced from a collaborative effort between Hiroshima University and Rakuten Securities Inc., this study used mean comparison tests and probit regression to analyze hyperbolic discounting’s role in panic selling behavior on the global COVID-19 financial crisis. The findings reveal that hyperbolic discounting plays a central role in triggering investors’ impulsive panic selling behavior, which is driven primarily by fear of potential losses. Other factors that influence panic selling behavior include age, male gender, low education level, financial literacy, household income, household assets, risk aversion, and overconfidence in financial knowledge. Our study explicates the need to address cognitive biases in financial decision making during market crises through strategies such as targeted financial education, regulatory interventions against market manipulation, and the provision of professional advice to investors.

Although the traditional sources of financial knowledge in Japan are financial advisors and investment groups, the digital era and artificial intelligence have made other sources of information, such as social media and mass media, more influential. As such, it has become important to examine the socioeconomic, demographic, and psychological factors influencing the use of these information sources in the context of investment decisions. However, little research has been carried out to examine such associations using a large-scale nationwide dataset. We fill this gap by utilizing a dataset comprising almost 65,000 active investors from one of the largest online security companies in Japan, ensuring the representativeness and generalizability of our results. We show that active investors are more inclined to use social media and mass media than financial advisors and investment groups. The probit regression model shows that the use of each of the four sources of information is strongly shaped by an individual’s characteristics, which, to some extent, are not mutually exclusive for each source type. The study results imply that the government should regulate and monitor the quality and accuracy of the information disseminated by mass media and social media and educate investors on how to critically evaluate and verify the information that they receive.