Aliyu Ali Bawalle

Inflation expectations play an important role in monetary transmission, yet little is known about whether digital financial literacy (DFL) is associated with how individuals form such expectations across different forecasting horizons. This study examines the association between DFL and inflation expectations at the one-, three-, and five-year horizons using a large-scale online survey of more than 150,000 Japanese investors. DFL is measured as a multidimensional construct capturing digital and financial knowledge, awareness and use of digital financial services, financial attitudes and behaviors, and self-protection capabilities. Ordered probit models are employed to estimate the association between DFL and horizon-specific inflation expectations while controlling for demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral characteristics. The results indicate a clear horizon-dependent pattern. Higher DFL is negatively associated with one-year-ahead inflation expectations but positively associated with inflation expectations at the three- and five-year horizons. Marginal-effects estimates indicate that higher DFL shifts the short-run distribution toward lower inflation categories, but shifts the medium- and long-run distributions toward higher inflation categories. These findings are consistent with the possibility that individuals with higher DFL process short-term and longer-term inflation-related information differently. However, because the analysis is based on cross-sectional observational data, the results should be interpreted as conditional associations rather than causal effects.

This study builds on the concept of loss tolerance by introducing investment grip, a behavioral interpretation that captures investors’ commitment to long-term objectives under adverse market conditions. While loss tolerance traditionally measures the maximum financial loss an investor can withstand, investment grip focuses on the behavioral and psychological dimensions of maintaining long-term investment objectives when facing short-term setbacks, thus providing a more behaviorally grounded and operationalizable approach for evaluating client risk profiles. The investment grip framework integrates insights from self-control theory, emotional regulation research, and goal-commitment models. Using data from 92,792 Japanese retail investors in the 2025 “Survey on Life and Money,” we examine how gain-framed and loss-framed messages are associated with investment grip, controlling for digital financial literacy and demographic, socioeconomic, and psychological factors. Our findings reveal that loss framing is robustly associated with stronger investment grip, whereas gain framing demonstrates no statistically meaningful effect. These findings offer new insights into Japanese household financial behavior, explaining why conservative savings patterns persist despite the availability of better investment alternatives. The results underscore the role of information framing in shaping household investment behavior, with implications for investor protection and financial communication policy.

Investors’ ability to retain investments during bearish and uncertain market periods is a crucial behavioral trait for long-term wealth accumulation and reduces market instability. Nevertheless, little is understood about how digital financial literacy (DFL) shapes the capacity of increasingly digitalized financial environments. This study investigates the links between DFL and investment grip among Japanese active investors—defined here, following conventional Japanese regulatory and research practice, as individuals who maintain a securities account and have engaged with an online brokerage within the past year—building on several theoretical perspectives from behavioral science. Using survey data from 149,261 individuals with an active account at Rakuten Securities, we estimated ordered probit regression models as the main specification. The findings showed a strong positive association between DFL and investment grip, even after accounting for demographic, socioeconomic, as well as cognitive attributes. These results are supported by robustness tests employing a probit model with a binary outcome. The sample consists exclusively of digitally active retail investors; the findings are therefore most directly applicable to this subpopulation. Overall, the evidence suggests that DFL fosters investors’ capacity to endure market volatility by promoting rational decision-making and reducing panic-driven selloffs. This study offers new empirical findings that will help promote financial resilience in technology-driven markets.

Hyperbolic discounting, a key determinant of intertemporal behavior, captures individuals’ preferences for smaller immediate rewards over larger delayed ones. This study examined how hyperbolic discounting influences investment loss tolerance using a large-scale dataset of Japanese investors. Loss tolerance is defined as the extent of financial loss that an investor is willing to endure before changing their investment strategy. Although hyperbolic discounting shapes intertemporal investment decisions, its role in explaining loss tolerance remains largely unknown. Using a large dataset from the “Survey on Life and Money” comprising 107,294 observations and employing ordered probit regression, we found a significant negative relationship between hyperbolic discounting and investment loss tolerance: investors exhibiting stronger hyperbolic discounting are more likely to exit positions prematurely during market downturns, despite potential long-term recovery. The estimated marginal effect (−0.070 ***) underscores the economic significance of the association between hyperbolic discounting and loss tolerance. These results provide evidence that time-inconsistent preferences not only shape intertemporal choices but also reduce resilience to financial losses. The findings carry important implications for investors, highlighting the value of commitment mechanisms and education programs to counteract short-termism, and for policymakers seeking to design behavioral interventions that promote stable, long-term participation in financial markets.

The digitalization of financial systems has intensified risks such as cyber fraud, data breaches, and financial exclusion, particularly for individuals with low digital financial literacy (DFL). As digital finance becomes ubiquitous, DFL has emerged as a critical competency. However, the determinants of DFL remain insufficiently explored. This study aims to validate a comprehensive, theory-driven model that identifies the key sociodemographic, economic, and psychological factors that influence DFL acquisition among investors. Drawing on six established learning and behavioral theories—we analyze data from 158,169 active account holders in Japan through ordinary least squares regression. The results show that higher levels of DFL are associated with being male, younger or middle-aged, highly educated, and unemployed and having greater household income and assets. In contrast, being married, having children, holding a myopic view of the future, and high risk aversion are linked to lower DFL. Interaction effects show a stronger income–DFL association for males and a diminishing return for reduced education with age. Robustness checks using a probit model with a binary DFL measure confirmed the OLS results. These findings highlight digital inequalities and behavioral barriers that shape DFL acquisition. This study contributes a validated framework for identifying at-risk groups and supports future interventions to enhance inclusive digital financial capabilities in increasingly digital economies.

This study investigates the phenomenon of panic selling, in which investors rapidly sell financial securities due to fear or uncertainty, often causing asset prices to plummet. Despite the significance of this behavior during market crises, there is limited understanding of the factors that drive panic selling. To address this gap, we applied the overreaction hypothesis, integrating financial literacy to explore whether investor sentiment influences trading decisions even when financial knowledge is present. We analyzed individual investor level data from a survey conducted by Rakuten Securities Company and Hiroshima University in Japan, covering the period between November and December 2023. Using probit regression models, we examined the relationship between panic selling, financial literacy, and overconfidence, while controlling for demographic, socioeconomic, and psychological factors. Our findings reveal that overconfident investors are more likely to engage in panic selling during market downturns, even when financial literacy reduces such tendencies. This relationship persists across various degrees of selling, including partial and full divestment of stocks and mutual funds. The results underscore the importance for policymakers to monitor the dissemination of negative information during crises to mitigate panic selling. At the household level, the findings highlight the need for investors to acquire financial knowledge and seek reliable information to make informed decisions, thereby reducing their susceptibility to panic selling.

Despite government efforts, the uptake of screening for breast and cervical cancers among Japanese women remains low. This study employs financial literacy and financial education as proxies for rational decision-making to explore their potential to enhance cancer screening practices in Japan. Using data from Osaka University’s Preference Parameters Study, mean comparison tests and probit regression models are utilized to examine the association between breast and cervical cancer screening and financial literacy and financial education. The results of probit regression show that individuals with higher levels of financial education tend to participate in both breast and cervical cancer screening. In contrast, individuals with higher financial literacy are likely to participate in breast cancer screening, whereas no significant impact is observed for cervical cancer screening. Furthermore, our findings reveal that financial education positively influences both breast and cervical cancer screening. Factors such as employment, marriage, higher education, increased household income, and greater assets demonstrate robust positive relationships with breast and cervical cancer screening. Meanwhile, psychological factors including happiness, a myopic view of the future, anxiety about later life, and perceived health status have no significant associations, except for a positive association between anxiety about life and cervical cancer screening. Our study suggests the development of targeted educational programs that leverage financial literacy and financial education to raise awareness about the importance of breast and cervical cancer screening.

Hyperbolic discounting is a psychological phenomenon in which individuals prioritize smaller immediate rewards over larger future rewards. Time-inconsistent behavior is deemed irrational as it negatively impacts savings and investment, investment in financial knowledge, and long-term financial and personal well-being. This study hypothesizes that improving financial knowledge, promoting positive financial behavior, and fostering a future-oriented financial attitude can mitigate hyperbolic discounting bias and that these three components of financial literacy enable investors to make long-term economic decisions maximizing utility. We analyzed the responses of 114,170 active investors in Japan to examine the interactions between financial knowledge, behavior, and attitude. Our findings reveal a strong negative relationship between these dimensions and hyperbolic discounting, underscoring their crucial role in shaping individuals’ intertemporal preferences. For researchers, our results highlight the need to integrate multidimensional aspects of financial literacy into investigations of intertemporal discounting behaviors. Policymakers should implement holistic financial education programs that improve knowledge, transform behavior, and shape attitudes. Financial institutions and advisors should prioritize programs that mitigate hyperbolic discounting tendencies among clients. This study represents a significant advancement in the research on financial literacy, offering a comprehensive framework for future studies and practical applications aimed at improving financial decision-making outcomes.

In financial markets, irrational behaviors such as hyperbolic discounting and panic selling are prevalent. However, their widespread empirical associations remain unexplored. Numerous behavioral theories discuss how cognitive biases exacerbate panic selling through the lens of immediate loss aversion, a phenomenon in which individuals exhibit impulsive decision-making tendencies due to an intense fear of financial loss during market upheaval. Despite the theoretical elucidation, empirical investigations of these dynamics are lacking. Using a robust dataset comprising 121,293 active investors sourced from a collaborative effort between Hiroshima University and Rakuten Securities Inc., this study used mean comparison tests and probit regression to analyze hyperbolic discounting’s role in panic selling behavior on the global COVID-19 financial crisis. The findings reveal that hyperbolic discounting plays a central role in triggering investors’ impulsive panic selling behavior, which is driven primarily by fear of potential losses. Other factors that influence panic selling behavior include age, male gender, low education level, financial literacy, household income, household assets, risk aversion, and overconfidence in financial knowledge. Our study explicates the need to address cognitive biases in financial decision making during market crises through strategies such as targeted financial education, regulatory interventions against market manipulation, and the provision of professional advice to investors.