Martha G. Nielsen

A Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model for the Mississippi embayment region in Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Louisiana was constructed and calibrated to gain insight into potential recharge patterns for the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer, which has had substantial drawdown under intense pumping stress over the last several decades. An analysis of the net infiltration term from the SWB model combined with newly gathered airborne electromagnetic geophysical data on the surficial sediments in a calibrated modular three-dimensional finite-difference (MODFLOW 6) groundwater flow model of one area in the alluvial plain found that the distribution of net infiltration was significantly different from the recharge that gets to the water table through the complicated silt and clay stratigraphy of the unsaturated zone. The net infiltration of water through the rooting zone as simulated by SWB ranges from 5.7 to 12.3 inches per year in the alluvial plain part of the model domain, and is fairly evenly distributed within local areas. Recharge to the underlying aquifer is less and is much more focused in particular zones where the connectivity through the upper layers of the unsaturated zone above the water table is greater, indicating possible horizontal flow and perched water table conditions in the unsaturated zone. Runoff and net infiltration together account for 32 percent of the incoming precipitation overall and somewhat higher percentages in the alluvial plain area on an annual basis. These terms are much higher in the fall and winter than in the summer. Actual evapotranspiration accounts for between 62 and 72 percent on average of the annual precipitation but dominates all other terms in the summer months. Without irrigation, summertime net infiltration and runoff would be near zero in the crop-dominated alluvial plain area. The SWB model reproduced reported irrigation rates for corn, soybeans, rice, and cotton on an annual basis fairly well. The SWB model for the Mississippi embayment region was calibrated using more than 15,000 observations representing four parts of the calculated water budget: actual evapotranspiration, surface runoff, net infiltration, and irrigation. Using a Monte Carlo approach to determine the uncertainty in the model results stemming from the uncertainty in the model parameters used in the calibration, the uncertainty in the annual actual evapotranspiration values was around 5 percent, whereas the uncertainty in the irrigation, net infiltration, and runoff was around 20 percent.

A pilot workflow to refine the principal aquifers of the United States as defined in the Ground Water Atlas of the United States and create a new version of the principal aquifers (referred to as “version 2”) is documented in this report. The workflow incorporates decision points for creating finer scale spatial data for the principal aquifers and refining the original principal aquifer definitions if warranted. This workflow was applied to four principal aquifers in the upper Midwest region of the United States that were not previously refined as part of a U.S. Geological Survey regional groundwater availability study: the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system, the Jacobsville aquifer, the Silurian-Devonian aquifer, and the upper carbonate aquifer. The refinement resulted in the consolidation of two of these aquifers (the Silurian-Devonian and upper carbonate aquifers), an expansion of the Jacobsville aquifer into a larger newly defined Midcontinent Rift sandstone aquifers unit, and a slight refinement of the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system to exclude Precambrian units. The U.S. Geological Survey State Geologic Map Compilation geodatabase provided the base data used in the refined version 2 dataset, which are published in an accompanying U.S. Geological Survey data release as a prototype version 2 shapefile and include attributes describing the aquifer, data lineage, and source of the originally defined principal aquifer.

To help support remedial efforts at the former Badger Army Ammunition Plant the U.S. Geological Survey built and calibrated a transient groundwater flow model using the Newton Raphson formulation (MODFLOW–NWT) of the U.S. Geological Survey’s modular three-dimensional finite-difference code. The model simulates the groundwater flow system at the site from 1984 to 2020. The former Badger Army Ammunition Plant is a 7,275-acre site in Sauk County, Wisconsin. The plant produced smokeless gunpower and solid rocket propellent as munitions components. Peak production periods were during World War II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War. Subsequent groundwater contamination investigations have found four plumes at the site. A health risk assessment identified at least one contaminant of concern for human health risk present in three of the plumes: the propellant burning ground plume, the deterrent burning ground plume, and the central plume. A cooperative study began between the U.S. Army Environmental Command and U.S. Geological Survey to better understand the groundwater flow system at the former Badger Army Ammunition Plant. Field data, including aquifer tests, streamflow measurements, continuous groundwater elevations, and groundwater gradients with the Wisconsin River were collected and used to inform and calibrate the groundwater flow model. The model was used to assess the variability of the groundwater system over the study period, the components of the groundwater budget, and groundwater flow directions from identified source areas towards the Wisconsin River. Model performance assessment focused on using particle tracking to compare groundwater flowpaths that originate in the contaminant source areas to the observed plume footprints. This focus on plume behavior geometry should help constrain the advective component of a future groundwater transport model of the site.

First posted May 26, 2021 Director, Upper Midwest Water Science Center U.S. Geological Survey 8505 Research Way Middleton, WI 53562 The Mississippi embayment encompasses about 100,000 square miles and covers parts of eight States. In 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey began updating previous work for a part of the embayment known as the Mississippi Alluvial Plain to support informed water use and agricultural policy in the region. Groundwater, water use, economic, and other related models are being combined with field surveys and observations to create a quantitative framework for evaluating regional groundwater withdrawals and their effects on long-term water availability in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain. As part of this effort, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Soil-Water-Balance code (version 2.0) is being used to model potential groundwater recharge and irrigation water use, as necessary inputs to the long-term groundwater modeling efforts. The Soil-Water-Balance code is designed to estimate the distribution and timing of net infiltration leaving the root zone. Soil-Water-Balance makes use of gridded datasets of elevation, soils, land use (including specific crop types), and daily weather datasets to calculate other components of the root-zone water balance, including soil moisture, reference, actual evapotranspiration, snowfall, snowmelt, and canopy interception. Parameters on plant height and growing-season water needs are used to estimate crop-water demand and potential irrigation water use. This report documents the initial construction, calibration, and application of a Soil-Water-Balance model of the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study area for simulations running from 1915 to 2017. Further refinements of the model calibration for an expanded model area are planned.

In 2015, about 84,600 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) of groundwater were withdrawn in the United States for various uses including public supply, self-supplied domestic, industrial, mining, thermoelectric power, aquaculture, livestock, and irrigation. Of this total, about 94 percent (79,200 Mgal/d) was withdrawn from principal aquifers, which are defined as regionally extensive aquifers or aquifer systems that have the potential to be used as sources of water of suitable quality and quantity to meet various needs. The remaining 6 percent (5,400 Mgal/d) was withdrawn from other, nonprincipal aquifers in the United States.Sixty-six principal aquifers belonging to 5 major lithologic groups have been identified and delineated in the United States, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Of the water withdrawn from principal aquifers in 2015, 81 percent (63,900 Mgal/d) was from the unconsolidated and semiconsolidated sand and gravel lithologic group, 7.1 percent (5,630 Mgal/d) was from the igneous and metamorphic-rock lithologic group, 6.8 percent (5,360 Mgal/d) was from the carbonate-rock lithologic group, 3.4 percent (2,680 Mgal/d) was from the sandstone lithologic group, and 2.2 percent (1,710 Mgal/d) was from the sandstone and carbonate-rock lithologic group.The most heavily pumped of the 24 principal aquifers and aquifer systems within the unconsolidated and semiconsolidated sand and gravel lithologic group were the High Plains aquifer (12,300 Mgal/d), Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer (12,100 Mgal/d), Central Valley aquifer system (11,100 Mgal/d), and Basin and Range basin-fill aquifers (7,390 Mgal/d). Withdrawals for irrigation were 48,100 Mgal/d and accounted for 75 percent of the total withdrawals from this lithologic group. Although unconsolidated sand and gravel aquifers are widely distributed and were used as sources of water in all States except Hawaii and the U.S. Virgin Islands, 56 percent of the total withdrawn from unconsolidated and semiconsolidated sand and gravel aquifers was in just four States: California (15,600 Mgal/d), Arkansas (9,560 Mgal/d), Nebraska (5,570 Mgal/d), and Texas (4,830 Mgal/d).The most heavily pumped of the seven principal aquifers within the igneous and metamorphic-rock lithologic group were the Snake River Plain (2,930 Mgal/d) and Columbia Plateau basaltic-rock aquifers (1,080 Mgal/d), which are located in the northwestern United States and together accounted for 71 percent of the water withdrawn from this lithologic group. Withdrawals for irrigation were 4,190 Mgal/d and accounted for more than 74 percent of the total withdrawals from this lithologic group. Seventy-eight percent of the withdrawals from igneous and metamorphic-rock aquifers were in three States: Idaho (3,230 Mgal/d), Washington (614 Mgal/d), and Oregon (528 Mgal/d).The most heavily pumped of the 15 principal aquifers and aquifer systems within the carbonate-rock lithologic group were the Floridan aquifer system (3,180 Mgal/d) and the Biscayne aquifer (679 Mgal/d), which are in the southeastern United States and together accounted for almost 72 percent of the withdrawals from this lithologic group. Withdrawals for public supply (2,440 Mgal/d) and irrigation (1,610 Mgal/d) together accounted for almost 76 percent of the total withdrawals from this lithologic group. Although water was withdrawn from carbonate-rock aquifers in 35 States, 71 percent of the total withdrawn was in Florida (3,020 Mgal/d) and Georgia (785 Mgal/d).The most heavily pumped of the 15 principal aquifers within the sandstone lithologic group was the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system (921 Mgal/d), which is in the north-central United States and accounted for 34 percent of the water withdrawn from this lithologic group. Withdrawals for public supply were 1,030 Mgal/d and accounted for 38 percent of the total withdrawals from this lithologic group. Although sandstone aquifers were used as sources of water in 32 States, 45 percent of the total withdrawn from sandstone aquifers was in five States: Minnesota (321 Mgal/d), Wisconsin (319 Mgal/d), Kansas (193 Mgal/d), Illinois (187 Mgal/d), and Pennsylvania (179 Mgal/d).The most heavily pumped of the five principal aquifers and aquifer systems within the sandstone and carbonate-rock lithologic group were the Edwards-Trinity aquifer system (661 Mgal/d) in the south-central United States and the Valley and Ridge aquifers (551 Mgal/d) of the eastern United States, which together accounted for 71 percent of total withdrawals from this lithologic group. Withdrawals from sandstone and carbonate-rock aquifers for public-supply (713 Mgal/d), irrigation (469 Mgal/d), and self-supplied domestic (253 Mgal/d) uses accounted for about 84 percent of the total withdrawals from this lithologic group. Although water was withdrawn from sandstone and carbonate-rock aquifers in 25 States, 65 percent of the total withdrawn was in Texas (651 Mgal/d), Pennsylvania (238 Mgal/d), and Florida (223 Mgal/d).

To address the lack of information on the spatial and temporal variability of recharge to groundwater systems in Maine, a study was initiated in cooperation with the Maine Geological Survey to use the U.S. Geological Survey Soil-Water-Balance model to evaluate annual average potential recharge across the State over a 25-year period from 1991 to 2015. The Maine Soil-Water-Balance model was calibrated using annual observations of recharge, runoff, and evapotranspiration for 32 calibration watersheds in the State during 2001–12 (902 total observations). Observations of recharge, runoff, and evapotranspiration were developed for each watershed to reduce the possibility of nonunique combinations of model parameters during the calibration. The Maine Soil-Water-Balance model was run using an optional evapotranspiration calculation method that provides more control for calibration than the standard method. The model was calibrated using the Parameter ESTimation software suite.The overall mean model error (average of all annual residuals for recharge, runoff, and precipitation) was 0.39 inch. The mean of the absolute value of the residuals, or the mean absolute error, was 2.32 inches. The root mean squared error for the calibrated model overall was 3.14 inches. Statistical tests indicated that the model residuals are normally distributed. To determine the potential uncertainty in the median annual potential recharge that results from uncertainty in the parameters as they relate to information contained in the observations, 300 alternate model realizations were run, and the standard deviation of the median potential recharge value at every pixel was calculated.Simulated 25-year median potential recharge across the State is widely variable; this variability closely follows patterns of precipitation, with additional variability contributed by the patchwork nature of the combinations of land-use class and hydrologic soil group inputs, and distribution of available water capacity in the soil across the State. Overall, the 25-year median annual potential recharge across the State is 7.5 inches, ranging from a low of about 5 inches to over 30 inches. The statewide range in the 25-year minimum values is from just over 2 inches to just over 20 inches. The statewide range in the 25-year maximum potential recharge is between 15 and 48 inches per year.The model areas with the highest simulated median potential recharge include areas underlain by type A soils (sandy and well drained), particularly those that also have land uses with low or little vegetation (blueberry barrens, developed, open space, scrub/shrub, and cropland, for example). The potential recharge values for these areas are similar to previously published values for comparable soil types.The 25-year average potential recharge grids were compared to recharge evaluated through groundwater-flow models or other methods in four hydrogeologic settings at six study areas in the State. A key factor in the ability of the Soil-Water-Balance model to reproduce the earlier study results was whether the available water-capacity data were an appropriate match for the hydrologic soil groups. The Maine Soil-Water-Balance model does a good job in representing an accurate potential recharge under circumstances where the surficial mapped soils extend below the surface to the water-table aquifer and where the available water-capacity data are in an appropriate range for the hydrologic soil group. One hydrogeologic setting that was challenging for the model was where a silt and clay layer was below a shallow soil unit that did not have available water-capacity data that were appropriate for the hydrologic soil group. In these cases, typically the available water-capacity data were very low, not accounting for the impedance of water flow provided by the underlying soil. The model also does not simulate well areas where bedrock surfaces are above the water table but below the plant rooting zone.The data products accompanying this report are intended to be used to provide first-cut estimates of recharge for geographic areas no smaller than the smallest watersheds used in the calibration of the model—or about 1.5 square miles. It is recommended that the grids are used to calculate an area-wide average potential recharge for any given area of study, and an uncertainty around the mean should be calculated from the standard deviation grid at the same time.

Freshwater streams in Connecticut are subject to many competing demands, including public water supply; agricultural, commercial, and industrial water use; and ecosystem and habitat needs. In recent years, drought has further stressed Connecticut’s water resources. To sustainably allocate and manage water resources among these competing uses, Federal, State, and local water-resource managers require data and modeling tools to estimate the water availability at a variety of temporal and spatial scales for planning purposes. The Connecticut Streamflow and Sustainable Water Use Estimator (CT SSWUE), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection, is a decision-support tool for estimating daily unaltered streamflow and sustainable water use at ungaged sites in Connecticut.The CT SSWUE estimates unaltered daily mean streamflow and water-use-adjusted streamflow for the period from October 1, 1960, to September 30, 2015, and the monthly sustainable net withdrawal at ungaged sites in Connecticut. Unaltered streamflow is the estimated daily mean streamflow in a drainage basin in the absence of any water withdrawals or wastewater discharges and with minimal human development. Sustainable net withdrawal is the maximum net withdrawal (withdrawal minus wastewater discharges) that can be drawn from a basin without critically depleting the water available through natural streamflow patterns. Sustainable net withdrawal is defined for this study as the difference between the unaltered daily mean streamflow and a user-defined target minimum streamflow.Weighted least squares and Tobit regression techniques were used to develop equations for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites at 19 streamflow quantiles with exceedance probabilities ranging from 0.005 to 99.995 percent. Regressions were based on streamflow quantiles and basin characteristics from 36 reference streamgages in and around Connecticut. Four basin characteristics—drainage area, mean of the soil permeability, mean of the average annual precipitation, and ratio of the length of streams that overlay sand and gravel deposits to the total length of streams in the basin—are used as explanatory variables in the equations. At an ungaged site, interpolation between the streamflow quantiles estimated from the regression equations produces a continuous flow-duration curve. A time series of daily mean streamflow at an ungaged site is then estimated by assuming that for each day, the streamflow quantile occurs on the same date at both a reference streamgage and the ungaged site.In a remove-one cross validation, estimated unaltered daily mean streamflow agreed well with observed values at reference streamgages, with a few exceptions. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from −0.43 to 0.97 with a median value of 0.88. The normalized root-mean-square error ranged from 16.6 to 120.4 percent with a median value of 34.5 percent.An empirical method for estimating 95-percent prediction intervals for unaltered daily and monthly mean streamflow was developed and tested by using the cross-validation data. Prediction intervals for unaltered daily mean streamflow at the cross-validation reference streamgages performed well in most cases. Gaged streamflow values from the cross-validation data fell within the prediction intervals a median 96.6 percent of the time for daily mean time series and 93.9 percent of the time for monthly mean time series.The CT SSWUE computes water-use-adjusted streamflow using spatially referenced water-use information provided by the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection. Available water-use information included permitted and registered water withdrawals and permitted wastewater discharges during 1998 to 2015 for the Thames River Basin and central coastal drainage basins. Water-use information was incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats web application for Connecticut and can be used for computing water-use-adjusted streamflow and sustainable net withdrawal at selected points of interest. Altered daily streamflow is computed by applying average daily withdrawals and wastewater discharges to the water balance equation. Average daily surface water withdrawals and wastewater discharges are applied directly to the daily water balance equation. Time-lagged alterations on streamflow from groundwater withdrawals or wastewater discharges are estimated by using a response-coefficient method developed from results of previously published, calibrated groundwater models.