Stephen M. Westenbroek

In 2011–13, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a study of the hydrogeomorphic setting and hydrodynamic conditions of the lower Sheboygan River and island complex within the backwater zone of Lake Michigan. Analyses of historical aerial photographs from 1938–2010 indicated that the Wildwood Islands complex had experienced mainly erosion and what was mainly one island in 1938 had eroded into about ten smaller islands and bars by 2010. Water levels, velocity and sedimentation patterns in the Sheboygan River mouth are affected by Lake Michigan water levels and seiche-related flow reversals for a potential river length of over 7 km. During the summer of 2012, when water levels in Lake Michigan were below the low water datum, seiche-related water-level fluctuations had a general range of 0.2 m and extended to just upstream of the Wildwood Islands complex, with greater variability in amplitude and frequency in the spring and fall months than in the summer. The low water level associated with the trough of a 60-90-minute seiche-related oscillation was sometimes 0.6 m lower than the low water datum. Runoff events produced river water levels during spring melt or storms that were 0.6 m above coincident Lake Michigan water levels. Frequent ice jams in the winter and early spring of 2012-13 raised river water levels to near the Lake Michigan ordinary high-water mark even though Lake Michigan water levels were at near record lows. Results from trends analyses from 1916 through 2008 indicated average annual streamflow and low flows were increasing in the Sheboygan River, but floods with an annual exceedance probability of 1 percent did not change. Simulations of a range of combinations of Lake Michigan water levels with river flows indicated that a variety of velocity patterns and water levels are possible near the Wildwood Islands complex. Simulated velocities ranged from 0 m/s during high lake levels and small river flows to 2 m/s during high lake levels and floods with an annual exceedance probability of 0.01. Silt deposition recorded in sediment cores matched locations of flow divergence in the model simulations. Time lapse photography confirmed flow reversals in the vicinity of the Wildwood Islands complex from frequent seiche oscillations. The study illustrates the large range in variability in water levels and velocities over short periods of time, and that the lake-effect zone can be greatly extended upstream during high lake levels for low-gradient rivermouth environments.

In many places, coldwater ecosystems are facing increasing pressure from anthropogenic warming. This study examined stream temperatures and the water balance in the Beaver Creek watershed on the Kenai Peninsula in south-central Alaska—an area that is experiencing rapid warming. Low-gradient streams near the Kenai coast provide important spawning and rearing habitat for salmon but may be especially vulnerable to rising temperatures, because of long residence times, inflows from abundant riparian wetlands, and reliance on groundwater discharge that may also warm, or decrease in volume with rising evapotranspiration. In recent decades, observed maximum 7-day temperatures have consistently exceeded statistical (regression-based) projections. Here we simulate total streamflows and temperatures with a physics-based model that links the Soil Water Balance, MODFLOW 6 and SNTEMP simulation codes on a 7-day timestep. The model is based on existing data and groundwater levels, instream flows, and stream temperatures collected during 2019–23. Future climate scenarios were developed for 2023–50 from downscaled climate projections.Results indicate that groundwater discharge is about 64 percent of the total streamflow during the months of May through September. Total streamflow and groundwater discharge are expected to remain similar to current conditions through 2050. Stream temperatures are expected to rise; by midcentury, near the Beaver Creek mouth the model predicts 34 to 63 additional days per year with average weekly temperatures above 13 degrees Celsius, 14 to 81 additional days with average weekly temperatures above 15 degrees Celsius, and routine exceedances of 20 degrees Celsius during the warmest periods. Projected stream temperatures vary spatially. Areas of high groundwater inflows in the lower main stem and some tributaries may be most resilient to warming air temperatures during dry conditions. During storm events, groundwater-dominated tributaries may have the coolest stream temperatures.

A Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model for the Mississippi embayment region in Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Louisiana was constructed and calibrated to gain insight into potential recharge patterns for the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer, which has had substantial drawdown under intense pumping stress over the last several decades. An analysis of the net infiltration term from the SWB model combined with newly gathered airborne electromagnetic geophysical data on the surficial sediments in a calibrated modular three-dimensional finite-difference (MODFLOW 6) groundwater flow model of one area in the alluvial plain found that the distribution of net infiltration was significantly different from the recharge that gets to the water table through the complicated silt and clay stratigraphy of the unsaturated zone. The net infiltration of water through the rooting zone as simulated by SWB ranges from 5.7 to 12.3 inches per year in the alluvial plain part of the model domain, and is fairly evenly distributed within local areas. Recharge to the underlying aquifer is less and is much more focused in particular zones where the connectivity through the upper layers of the unsaturated zone above the water table is greater, indicating possible horizontal flow and perched water table conditions in the unsaturated zone. Runoff and net infiltration together account for 32 percent of the incoming precipitation overall and somewhat higher percentages in the alluvial plain area on an annual basis. These terms are much higher in the fall and winter than in the summer. Actual evapotranspiration accounts for between 62 and 72 percent on average of the annual precipitation but dominates all other terms in the summer months. Without irrigation, summertime net infiltration and runoff would be near zero in the crop-dominated alluvial plain area. The SWB model reproduced reported irrigation rates for corn, soybeans, rice, and cotton on an annual basis fairly well. The SWB model for the Mississippi embayment region was calibrated using more than 15,000 observations representing four parts of the calculated water budget: actual evapotranspiration, surface runoff, net infiltration, and irrigation. Using a Monte Carlo approach to determine the uncertainty in the model results stemming from the uncertainty in the model parameters used in the calibration, the uncertainty in the annual actual evapotranspiration values was around 5 percent, whereas the uncertainty in the irrigation, net infiltration, and runoff was around 20 percent.

Improved simulations of streamflow and base flow for selected sites within and adjacent to the Mississippi River Alluvial Plain area are important for modeling groundwater flow because surface-water flows have a substantial effect on groundwater levels. One method for simulating streamflow and base flow, random forest (RF) models, was developed from the data at gaged sites and, in turn, was used to make monthly mean streamflow and base-flow predictions at 162 ungaged sites in the study area. Daily streamflow observations and computed base flow from 247 streamgages were used as the basis for the development of these RF models. RF models were constructed from basin and climatic characteristics and related to observed monthly mean streamflow values; models were used to compute monthly base-flow estimates from selected streamgages in and adjacent to the Mississippi River Alluvial Plain extent, which includes streamflows from parts of Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, New Mexico, Tennessee, and Texas. The explanatory variables for the models were selected to represent physical characteristics and climatic time series for the contributing drainage basins to the streamgages and ungaged locations of interest. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency between observed and simulated monthly mean streamflow was greater than 0.80 for 155 of the 247 streamgages, with a median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value of 0.83. The streamflow and base-flow simulations can be used to improve inflow values and to verify the Mississippi River Alluvial Plain groundwater flow model. The statistical model, input data, and response data (simulated monthly mean streamflows) are available as a U.S. Geological Survey software release and a U.S. Geological Survey data release.

A multiscale, multiprocess modeling approach was applied to the Wisconsin Central Sands region in central Wisconsin to quantify the connections between the groundwater system, land use, and lake levels in three seepage lakes in Waushara County, Wisconsin: Long and Plainfield (The Plainfield Tunnel Channel Lakes), and Pleasant Lakes. A regional groundwater-flow model, the Newton Raphson formulation of the U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference flow model groundwater-modeling package (MODFLOW-NWT), centered on the lakes, was used to extend regional surface-water boundaries to provide boundary conditions for two focused inset models, in the hydrologic simulation modeling package (MODFLOW 6), at higher resolution around the lakes. Land use and groundwater use were simulated at a regional scale using the Soil Water Balance model, which provided recharge and water-use boundary conditions for the MODFLOW models. Agricultural irrigation is the primary groundwater use in the area. Land and groundwater-use scenarios representing no irrigation, current (2018) irrigation, and potential future irrigation were simulated with the groundwater-flow model and the lake levels over a 38-year representative climate period.

First posted May 26, 2021 Director, Upper Midwest Water Science Center U.S. Geological Survey 8505 Research Way Middleton, WI 53562 The Mississippi embayment encompasses about 100,000 square miles and covers parts of eight States. In 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey began updating previous work for a part of the embayment known as the Mississippi Alluvial Plain to support informed water use and agricultural policy in the region. Groundwater, water use, economic, and other related models are being combined with field surveys and observations to create a quantitative framework for evaluating regional groundwater withdrawals and their effects on long-term water availability in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain. As part of this effort, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Soil-Water-Balance code (version 2.0) is being used to model potential groundwater recharge and irrigation water use, as necessary inputs to the long-term groundwater modeling efforts. The Soil-Water-Balance code is designed to estimate the distribution and timing of net infiltration leaving the root zone. Soil-Water-Balance makes use of gridded datasets of elevation, soils, land use (including specific crop types), and daily weather datasets to calculate other components of the root-zone water balance, including soil moisture, reference, actual evapotranspiration, snowfall, snowmelt, and canopy interception. Parameters on plant height and growing-season water needs are used to estimate crop-water demand and potential irrigation water use. This report documents the initial construction, calibration, and application of a Soil-Water-Balance model of the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study area for simulations running from 1915 to 2017. Further refinements of the model calibration for an expanded model area are planned.

To address the lack of information on the spatial and temporal variability of recharge to groundwater systems in Maine, a study was initiated in cooperation with the Maine Geological Survey to use the U.S. Geological Survey Soil-Water-Balance model to evaluate annual average potential recharge across the State over a 25-year period from 1991 to 2015. The Maine Soil-Water-Balance model was calibrated using annual observations of recharge, runoff, and evapotranspiration for 32 calibration watersheds in the State during 2001–12 (902 total observations). Observations of recharge, runoff, and evapotranspiration were developed for each watershed to reduce the possibility of nonunique combinations of model parameters during the calibration. The Maine Soil-Water-Balance model was run using an optional evapotranspiration calculation method that provides more control for calibration than the standard method. The model was calibrated using the Parameter ESTimation software suite.The overall mean model error (average of all annual residuals for recharge, runoff, and precipitation) was 0.39 inch. The mean of the absolute value of the residuals, or the mean absolute error, was 2.32 inches. The root mean squared error for the calibrated model overall was 3.14 inches. Statistical tests indicated that the model residuals are normally distributed. To determine the potential uncertainty in the median annual potential recharge that results from uncertainty in the parameters as they relate to information contained in the observations, 300 alternate model realizations were run, and the standard deviation of the median potential recharge value at every pixel was calculated.Simulated 25-year median potential recharge across the State is widely variable; this variability closely follows patterns of precipitation, with additional variability contributed by the patchwork nature of the combinations of land-use class and hydrologic soil group inputs, and distribution of available water capacity in the soil across the State. Overall, the 25-year median annual potential recharge across the State is 7.5 inches, ranging from a low of about 5 inches to over 30 inches. The statewide range in the 25-year minimum values is from just over 2 inches to just over 20 inches. The statewide range in the 25-year maximum potential recharge is between 15 and 48 inches per year.The model areas with the highest simulated median potential recharge include areas underlain by type A soils (sandy and well drained), particularly those that also have land uses with low or little vegetation (blueberry barrens, developed, open space, scrub/shrub, and cropland, for example). The potential recharge values for these areas are similar to previously published values for comparable soil types.The 25-year average potential recharge grids were compared to recharge evaluated through groundwater-flow models or other methods in four hydrogeologic settings at six study areas in the State. A key factor in the ability of the Soil-Water-Balance model to reproduce the earlier study results was whether the available water-capacity data were an appropriate match for the hydrologic soil groups. The Maine Soil-Water-Balance model does a good job in representing an accurate potential recharge under circumstances where the surficial mapped soils extend below the surface to the water-table aquifer and where the available water-capacity data are in an appropriate range for the hydrologic soil group. One hydrogeologic setting that was challenging for the model was where a silt and clay layer was below a shallow soil unit that did not have available water-capacity data that were appropriate for the hydrologic soil group. In these cases, typically the available water-capacity data were very low, not accounting for the impedance of water flow provided by the underlying soil. The model also does not simulate well areas where bedrock surfaces are above the water table but below the plant rooting zone.The data products accompanying this report are intended to be used to provide first-cut estimates of recharge for geographic areas no smaller than the smallest watersheds used in the calibration of the model—or about 1.5 square miles. It is recommended that the grids are used to calculate an area-wide average potential recharge for any given area of study, and an uncertainty around the mean should be calculated from the standard deviation grid at the same time.

The glacial aquifer system, which is a collection of aquifers within Quaternary sediments in the glaciated conterminous United States, is a principal aquifer that supplies groundwater that serves about 42 million people and accounts for about 5 percent of the Nation’s drinking water. This aquifer system (the area of maximum glacial advance) underlies parts of 25 States and covers 1.87×106 square kilometers. A hydrogeologic framework is presented that divides the glaciated United States into 17 distinct hydrogeologic terranes using a geologic approach based on previous mapping. Each hydrogeologic terrane contains Quaternary sediment that is derived from a common depositional history and can be characterized by similar texture and thickness. Characteristics of Quaternary sediments are described using attributes computed from a lithologic database of well logs compiled from 24 States (excluding Kentucky). The hydrogeologic framework presents a nationwide picture of the glacial aquifer system and provides generalizations concerning the nature of aquifers within it (for example, whether the aquifers are shallow or deep, and unconfined or confined). In this way insights can be gained from understanding the similarities and differences in distinct parts of the glacial aquifer system and how they relate to water use and quality and to aquifer vulnerability.Delineation of hydrogeologic terranes was based on an interpretation of existing geologic mapping of Quaternary sediments and the thickness of unconsolidated material. Overall thickness of Quaternary sediment was used to qualitatively rank the generalized complexity of the hydrogeologic framework in each terrane: “lower” complexity (assigned a terrane code 1), “moderate” complexity (terrane code 2), and “higher” complexity (terrane code 3). Letter designations appended to the terrane codes (for example, 1A, 1B, or 1C) differentiate terranes of similar complexity. Two unique areas, where thick, stratified, coarse-grained sediment dominates, were assigned terrane code 4.Elements of this hydrogeologic framework include a glacial environments and surficial sediments geodatabase, which includes lithologic, geomorphic, and stratigraphic characterization of Quaternary sediments based on previous mapping; a gridded database of sediment and aquifer characteristics computed from lithologic logs obtained from water-well driller records; a water-use database with information on public-water supply systems and sources of groundwater; and estimated recharge computed from a geologically based soil-water balance model. A generalized map of the bedrock geology based on previous State-level mapping is included as well.Quaternary sediment in the glaciated United States includes glacial, postglacial (Holocene) and nonglacial sediments. At land surface, 60 percent of the glacial sediment is till. Large areas of outwash and ice contact sediments are extensive throughout the Midwest but generally are confined to valleys in the Northeast and the Northwest. Lacustrine sediments were deposited in proglacial lakes adjacent to the present Great Lakes and in glacial Lake Agassiz in the eastern Dakotas and northwestern Minnesota. The median thickness of Quaternary sediment ranges from 6 to 45 meters across the 17 hydrogeologic terranes, but the maximum thickness is more than 500 meters in some areas. Quaternary sediments generally contain less than 10 percent coarse material; the median range is near zero percent under till to about 50 percent under ice contact and outwash sediments. About 80 percent of the coarse material lies within 25 to 40 meters of land surface.In most of the glaciated United States, there is a small likelihood of penetrating an aquifer-material interval containing coarse material at least 3 meters thick. A single aquifer-material interval was recorded in about 44 percent of lithologic logs, whereas about 11 percent of the logs penetrated multiple intervals. About 44 percent of water wells in the lithologic database are completed in Quaternary sediment, and many of these Quaternary water wells (42 percent) are confined by at least 7.5 meters of fine materials. About 33 percent of these Quaternary water wells are unconfined—the remainder are where only thin layers (less than 3 meters) of coarse material are present. The median depths of Quaternary water wells range from 13 to 40 meters among the 17 hydrogeologic terranes.Recharge ranges from more than 400 millimeters per year in the Northeast to 11 millimeters or less per year in the Dakotas and Montana (median value of 136 millimeters per year). Annual groundwater withdrawals compiled by county range on an areal basis from less than 1 to 370 millimeters per year, and the mean is 7.4 millimeters per year. About 36 percent of the withdrawals are for public-water supply, of which 70 percent are derived from Quaternary sediments. Groundwater withdrawals are less than 10 percent of recharge throughout most of the glaciated conterminous United States but are a larger proportion of recharge near urban areas in the Northeast and the Midwest, and in counties throughout drier parts of the Midwest.The salient characteristics of the 17 hydrogeologic terranes are presented through maps and a set of descriptive plots to facilitate visual comparisons between selected sediment and aquifer characteristics. The thickness of Quaternary sediment generally increases from the lower complexity terranes through the higher complexity terranes, consistent with their delineation. Median proportions of coarse material in Quaternary sediment and depths to aquifer-material intervals are highly variable (less than 10 to 50 percent, and 0 to 30 meters, respectively). Median thicknesses of aquifer-material intervals generally fall within a narrow range (10 to 20 meters), except in two terranes that contain thick coarse-grained sediment (30 to 35 meters). The source of water in...

The U.S. Geological Survey’s Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) code was developed as a tool to estimate distribution and timing of net infiltration out of the root zone by means of an approach that uses readily available data and minimizes user effort required to begin a SWB application. SWB calculates other components of the water balance, including soil moisture, reference and actual evapotranspiration, snowfall, snowmelt, canopy interception, and crop-water demand. SWB is based on a modified Thornthwaite-Mather soil-water-balance approach, with components of the soil-water balance calculated at a daily time step. Net-infiltration calculations are computed by means of a rectangular grid of computational elements, which allows the calculated infiltration rates to be imported into grid-based regional groundwater-flow models. SWB makes use of gridded datasets, including datasets describing hydrologic soil groups, moisture-retaining capacity, flow direction, and land use. Climate data may be supplied in gridded or tabular form. The SWB 2.0 code described in this report extends capabilities of the original SWB version 1.0 model by adding new options for representing physical processes and additional data input and output capabilities. New methods included in SWB 2.0 allow for direct gridded input of externally calculated water-budget components (fog, septic, and storm-sewer leakage), simulation of canopy interception by several alternative processes, and a crop-water demand method for estimating irrigation amounts. New input and output capabilities allow for grids with differing spatial extents and projections to be combined without requiring the user to resample and resize the grids before use.

First posted July 18, 2018 Director, Upper Midwest Water Science Center U.S. Geological Survey 2280 Woodale Drive Mounds View, MN 55112 An understanding of the spatial and temporal extent of groundwater recharge is critical for many types of hydrologic assessments involving water quality, contaminant transport, ecosystem health, and sustainable use of groundwater. Annual potential groundwater recharge was simulated at a 1-kilometer resolution with the Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model for the glacial aquifer system east of the Rocky Mountains, from central Montana east to Maine, for calendar years 1980–2011. The SWB model used high resolution meteorological, land cover, and soil hydrology datasets that are nationally consistent and publicly available. The SWB model computed daily potential groundwater recharge as precipitation in excess of interception, runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil-water storage capacity. Daily potential recharge values within each year of the simulation were summed to produce annual potential recharge rates. Potential recharge as described in this report is water that infiltrates vertically below the plant rooting zone and is assumed to reach the water table. The calibrated SWB model in this report is called the glacial SWB model. Model calibration assumed that the area contributing to groundwater discharge equaled the surface watershed. The model was calibrated to stream base flows from 39 watersheds throughout the model domain that had hydrologic conditions appropriate for hydrograph separation. Base flows were calculated from daily streamflow records with the HYSEP local minimum hydrograph separation method The glacial SWB model reproduced the mean annual base-flow calibration targets well; the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient was 0.94, and the root mean squared error was 1.28 inches per year. The glacial SWB model provides insight into the spatial and temporal variability in potential annual recharge across the glacial aquifer system. About 20 percent of the active model area had an average potential recharge rate of less than 1 inch per year. Total precipitation, total recharge, and recharge as a percentage of precipitation increased from west to east. A substantial amount of the recharge water (39 percent) entering the glacial aquifer system travels through developed (urbanized) and agricultural landscapes, which are known to cause water-quality impairments. Regional climatic events, such as the 1988 to 1989 drought, are apparent in the potential recharge time series. Potential recharge generally increased across the glacial aquifer system between 2001 and 2011. A comparison of the potential recharge from the glacial SWB model to previous broad-scale recharge estimates reveals several important considerations for future SWB modeling applications. Shifts in the overall distribution of potential recharge between separate models can be explained by methods used to generate base-flow calibration target datasets. Spatial patterns in potential recharge simulated by SWB models are strongly dependent on the data and assumptions used to assign model cells to hydrologic soil groups. A review of several SWB models used to estimate groundwater recharge (and not surface runoff) revealed that model results are most sensitive to input climatic data, followed by surface runoff (curve number) and root-zone depth parameters.