Marco Noro

The evaluation of the effectiveness and sustainability of decarbonization measures, especially but not only through electrification, is not trivial. Combustion technologies improve by small amounts year to year and as the emission factors of fuels can be considered constant across European countries; however, the emission factors of electricity generation are not uniform among countries and do not share a common trend in their evolution over time. These two aspects, the different evolution trends of electricity emission factors and the non-uniformity of these factors among countries, can lead to unexpected results: under/overestimation of carbon savings and sustainability in the long-term forecast in the massive technologic transition in both the civil and industrial sectors. This paper, using trend observations and the Myopic model, highlights possible biases in the long-term projection of CO₂ emissions savings in the industrial sector. This study focuses on a comprehensive investigation of the integration of a high-temperature heat pump into a combined cooling, heating, and power plant. A detailed assessment of the system’s energy performance is conducted through steady-state simulations under both fixed boundary conditions and annual operational scenarios, addressing building heating, cooling, and electrical requirements across varying electricity emission factors for different European countries and evolution trends until 2050, with the results compared with conventional energy production systems.

The European Union has set an ambitious goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, and 90% reduction by 2040, through its Green Deal policy. A promising solution to this challenge lies in the adoption of Fifth-Generation District Heating Networks (5GDHNs) that operate at low temperatures, collecting and distributing heat from diverse sources (energy geostructures, asphalt pavement solar thermal collectors, industrial waste heat and waste heat from buildings’ cooling plants). The system’s design allows for heat storage underground, primarily during summer months, with distribution occurring via pipelines during winter. As part of the REHEAT project, a study has been conducted focusing on a simulation model developed using TRNSYS software. This model incorporates solar thermal collectors installed beneath the parking area asphalt pavements as a thermal energy source, coupled with a borehole thermal energy storage system. The setup is designed to meet the heating and cooling demands of a multiplex cinema situated in Northern Italy. The study presents the optimization of the system, reporting the monthly and annual data on energy balances and system efficiency. The findings demonstrate significant energy savings when compared to traditional heating and cooling systems (50.6% non-renewable primary energy reduction) and even greater CO₂ emission reduction (63.2%). Also, the economic analysis reveals positive results both from the point of view of operating costs and taking into account investment costs, highlighting the potential of 5GDHN as a sustainable solution for urban energy needs for a real case as the main novelty of this study.

The assessment of energy savings is not a trivial matter, as we have direct meters for consumption, but not for the absence of consumption. Calculating a simple difference between consumption before and after the implementation of an energy saving measure is also an incomplete assessment. The only way to determine energy savings is to compare the consumption that would have occurred in the absence of the saving measure with the actual consumption, with reference to the same external conditions and the same period. This is what the international IPMVP^® protocol establishes. This study, based on two case studies of industrial energy saving measures, explores the aspects of the calculation related to decarbonization and economic evaluation. In particular, sensitivity analyses of energy and economic indicators are carried out based on factors that evolve over time, such as the rate of inflation and discounting of investments and the variation in the carbon dioxide emission factor for electricity production. The main results highlight that the assumption of a constant electricity emission factor leads to an overestimation of the total CO₂ savings from energy efficiency interventions that can be more than 40%. The uniqueness of this paper is the application of a standardized savings evaluation procedure (IPMVP^®) in order to analyze the sensitivity of economic savings towards some key financial parameters, and the specific fitting of an electricity emission model to the Italian power sector in order to correct the carbon savings evaluation to the projected emission factor evolution.

District heating (DH) systems offer a sustainable solution to local energy needs by improving energy efficiency, reducing emissions, and fostering economic development. Despite their growing technological relevance, DH systems remain underexplored in the economics, business, and management literature. This study addresses this gap by conducting a bibliometric analysis of DH research at the intersection of these fields, using data extracted from the Web of Science. We identify major theoretical foundations, including the resource-based view, stakeholder theory, and institutional economics, and explore key themes such as economic viability, business model innovation, regulatory frameworks, and sustainability strategies. By framing DH systems within broader economic and managerial discourses, our findings highlight the interdisciplinary nature of DH research and suggest critical avenues for future investigation, including the role of emerging technologies, consumer behavior, and policy design, and contribute to low-carbon, sustainable development.