John P. Masterson

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a transient, groundwater-flow model that simulates hydrologic conditions in the Long Island aquifer system as part of an ongoing (since 2016) multiyear, cooperative investigation with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. The goals of this investigation are to assist stakeholders and resource managers to evaluate the response of the hydrologic system to changes in future hydraulic stresses. Responses in the hydrologic system include changes in water levels in the hydrogeologic units; discharge to streams, coastal waters, and subsurface infrastructure; and the extent of saline groundwater in the aquifers. Hydraulic stresses include future water-supply management and changes in land use and infrastructure.The numerical model synthesizes a diverse set of physiographic, geologic, climatic, land-use, and historical population, water use, and infrastructure data to physically represent the Long Island aquifer system from land surface to bedrock and to simulate annual hydrologic conditions between 1900 and 2019. A three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework was developed from existing and recently collected borehole geologic and geophysical data collected as part of a companion drilling program. Water-transmitting properties of the principal aquifer sediments were defined in three dimensions from new and existing lithologic logs. The distribution of recharge from precipitation was estimated from landscape characteristics and climate data. Anthropogenic recharge from wastewater, leaky infrastructure, and storm runoff were estimated from population, infrastructure, and pumping data.Water-use data, including well locations, depths, and pumping rates, were obtained from historical sources and records and used to estimate pumping stresses continuously in time and space, at an annual average time scale. The data were incorporated into a three-dimensional numerical model using the U.S. Geological Survey finite difference modeling code MODFLOW 6; the model encompassed all of Long Island and surrounding surface waters and simulated historical hydrologic conditions from 1900 to 2019.The calibration process involved trial and error adjustments using prior knowledge to improve general fit to observations followed by an inverse calibration to update and optimize input parameters, using an iterative ensemble smoother algorithm implemented in PEST++ version 5.0. This resulted in a model that generally was in good agreement with observed, dynamically varying hydrologic conditions from 1900 to 2019. The calibrated model was used to develop two base-case models for scenario testing of future, hypothetical conditions where one represented average-annual conditions, and one represented average-seasonal conditions from 2010 to 2019. The model representing average-annual conditions was modified further to represent an alternate sea-level position of 6 feet above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988, and the model representing average-seasonal conditions was modified to represent the average seasonal effects of a 5-year drought imposed upon current hydrologic conditions.Recharge is the sole source of water to the aquifer system; groundwater discharges to coastal water and streams and is withdrawn by pumped wells. Model-estimated annual recharge ranged from about 11 inches in 1965 to 41 inches in 1983. On average, from 2010 to 2019, about 23 percent of water was pumped from wells, and about 47 and 27 percent discharged to coastal waters and streams, respectively; the remaining 4 percent was water that moved into storage in the aquifer matrix.Water levels on Long Island vary naturally during time in response to changes in recharge; the amount of variation is largest in the interior of the island, in areas with highest water table altitudes near groundwater divides and lowest near streams and the coastal waters. The total range of water table altitudes on Long Island between 1900 and 2019 ranged from near 0 to more than 70 feet in western parts of Long Island. The largest range in altitudes is in New York City and is associated with areas of large historical withdrawals between the 1920s and the late 1980s. Water table altitudes generally varied by less than 10 feet in eastern Suffolk County, where the aquifer is under more natural conditions.Saltwater intrusion is of great concern on Long Island, particularly in western Long Island where both the unconfined and confined parts of the aquifer system have been intruded in response to large-scale groundwater withdrawals; however, the volume of freshwater in the islandwide aquifer system only has changed by about 5 percent between 1900 and 2019. The decadal change in the freshwater volume was largest during the early and mid-20th century, corresponding to the largest historical pumping, but that volume change did not exceed 1 percent.The negligible change in freshwater volume suggests that saltwater intrusion as of 2019 was limited at an islandwide scale but continues to occur in local areas of Queens and Nassau Counties, adversely affecting current water supplies and limiting future water supplies for affected communities. The regional groundwater model developed for this investigation is a tool that can be used to help determine the viability of current and future water supplies at a regional scale and can be used to support development of additional models at finer scale to support more focused assessments of groundwater sustainability.

Freshwater is a vital natural resource. Although New York is a water-rich State, the wise and economical use of water resources is needed to ensure that there is enough water of adequate quality for both human and ecological needs—both for today and for tomorrow. Nowhere in New York is this more evident than in Nassau and Suffolk Counties on Long Island, where the public water supply is obtained from the sole-source aquifers located directly beneath the nearly 3 million people who live there. In 2023, in eastern Long Island’s Suffolk County, groundwater was pumped from these aquifers by more than 1,100 public water-supply wells to meet the needs of about 1.5 million people.

Freshwater is a vital natural resource. New York is a water-rich State; however, even here, the economical use of water resources is needed to ensure there is enough water of adequate quality for human and ecological needs—now and into the future. Nowhere in New York is this more evident than on Long Island where public-water supply is obtained from the sole-source aquifers directly beneath the 3 million people that live there. The U.S. Geological Survey works in partnership with the Nassau County Department of Public Works and Department of Health to monitor streamflow, groundwater, water quality, and water use.

A soil-water-balance (SWB) model was developed for Long Island, New York, to estimate the potential amount of annual groundwater recharge to the Long Island aquifer system from 1900 to 2019. The SWB model program is a computer code based on a modified Thornthwaite-Mather SWB approach and uses spatially and temporally distributed meteorological, land-cover, and soil properties as input to compute potential daily groundwater recharge. Simulated outputs indicate that island-wide potential groundwater recharge trends, as a percentage of precipitation, have increased approximately 3 percent during the 120-year period. The simulated results account for both climatic and land-cover changes that have occurred during the period. A change from undeveloped (forested land cover) to low- and medium-density residential land cover or land use increased potential groundwater recharge because of a decrease in evapotranspiration. During the 30-year period from 1900 to 1930, the simulated potential average groundwater recharge rate on Long Island was estimated to be 18.50 inches per year (in/yr), or a total of 1,243 million gallons per day, during the 30-year period from 1985 to 2015, the simulated potential average groundwater recharge rate estimate increased to 20.73 in/yr (a total of around 1,393 million gallons per day).During the 1900–2019 simulation period, the potential average annual groundwater recharge rate was about 19.24 in/yr. The data for that period included values for a 3-year meteorological drought from 1963 to 1965, where the mean precipitation was about 26.5 percent lower than the long-term average of 46.7 in/yr, and the potential groundwater recharge rate was about 12.3 in/yr. During a 3-year wet period from 1982 to 1984, where mean precipitation was about 19.6 percent higher than the long-term average, the estimated potential groundwater recharge rate was about 26.8 in/yr.

First posted September 24, 2021 Director, New York Water Science Center U.S. Geological Survey 425 Jordan Road Troy, NY 12180–8349 Nutrients, harmful algal blooms, and synthetic chemicals like per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and 1,4-dioxane threaten Long Island’s water resources by affecting the quality of drinking water and ecologically sensitive habitats that support the diverse wildlife throughout the island. Understanding the occurrence, fate, and transport of these potentially harmful chemicals is critical to protect these vital resources. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is collecting and analyzing data to support informed water-resource management decisions. This fact sheet introduces ongoing efforts and future areas of study aimed to help water professionals develop a comprehensive science strategy to address contamination of the Long Island aquifer system, the sole source of drinking water for nearly 3 million people. These studies include surface and groundwater collection and groundwater flow modeling. Funding for the data collection has been provided by the USGS, New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, New York City Department of Environmental Protection, Suffolk County Water Authority, Nassau County Department of Public Works, State and local agencies, and Tribal and Federal partners. Without the foresight and long-term commitment of these funding partners, evaluating sustainability and planning for future water needs would not be possible.

First posted July 16, 2021 Director, Maryland-Delaware-D.C. Water Science Center U.S. Geological Survey 5522 Research Park Drive Catonsville, MD 21228 The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed a three-dimensional groundwater-flow model for Assateague Island in eastern Maryland and Virginia to assess the effects of sea-level rise on the groundwater system. Sea-level rise is expected to increase the altitude of the water table in barrier island aquifer systems, possibly leading to adverse effects to ecosystems on the barrier islands. The potential effects of sea-level rise were evaluated by simulating groundwater conditions under sea-level-rise scenarios of 20 centimeters (cm), 40 cm, and 60 cm. Results show that as sea level rises, low-lying areas of the island originally represented as receiving freshwater recharge in the baseline scenario are inundated by saltwater. This change from freshwater recharge to saltwater decreases the overall amount of freshwater recharging the system. As the water table rises in response to the higher sea levels, freshwater flow out of the system changes, with more freshwater leaving as submarine groundwater discharge and less freshwater leaving as seeps and evapotranspiration. At the current land-surface altitude, as much as 50 percent of the island may be inundated with a 60-cm rise in sea level, and the low-lying marshes may change from freshwater to saltwater. Groundwater levels at 32 wells were monitored for as long as 12 months between October 2014 and September 2015 on Assateague Island. Results from objective classification analysis of 14 shallow monitoring wells show two dominant processes affecting groundwater levels in two different settings on the island. On the western side of the island, between the primary dune and the inland bays, water levels clearly respond to precipitation events. This side of the island is more protected from ocean tides and typically is more vegetated than the eastern side. On the eastern side of the island, between the Atlantic Ocean and the primary dune, water levels clearly respond to tidal events. Specific conductance was measured at four wells, two on the western part of the island and two on the eastern part of the island. Specific conductance values in the two wells west of the primary dune show episodic decreases, coinciding with precipitation events. Specific conductance values in the two wells on the eastern side of the primary dune show episodic increases, coinciding with high-tide events. These high frequency monitoring data are intended to aid in designing a monitoring network that can document both short-term and long-term hydrologic processes on Assateague Island National Seashore. This study uses a modeling approach consistent with models developed for Gateway National Recreation Area, Sandy Hook Unit (New Jersey) and Fire Island National Seashore (New York). Combined, these models are meant to improve the regional capabilities for predicting climate-change effects on barrier islands and provide resource managers with a common set of tools for adaptation and mitigation of potentially adverse effects of sea-level rise.

A three-dimensional groundwater-flow model was developed for the aquifer system of Long Island, New York, to evaluate (1) responses of the hydrologic system to changes in natural and anthropogenic hydraulic stresses, (2) the subsurface distribution of groundwater age, and (3) the regional-scale distribution of groundwater travel times and the source of water to fresh surface waters and coastal receiving waters. The model also provides the groundwater flow components used to define model boundaries for possible inset models used for local-scale analyses.The three-dimensional, groundwater flow model developed for this investigation uses the numerical code MODFLOW–NWT to represent steady-state conditions for average groundwater pumping and aquifer recharge for 2005–15. The particle-tracking algorithm MODPATH, which simulates advective transport in the aquifer, was used to estimate groundwater age, delineate the areas at the water table that contribute recharge to coastal and freshwater bodies, and estimate total travel times of water from the water table to discharge locations.A three-dimensional, 1-meter (3.3-foot) topobathymetric model was used to determine land-surface altitudes for the island and seabed altitudes for the surrounding coastal waters. The mapped extents and surface altitudes of major geologic units were compiled and used to develop a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework of the aquifer system, including aquifers and confining units. Lithologic data from deep boreholes and previous aquifer-test results were used to estimate the three-dimensional distribution of hydraulic conductivity in principal aquifers. Natural recharge from precipitation was estimated for 2005–15 using a modified Thornthwaite-Mather methodology as implemented in a soil-water balance model. Components of anthropogenic recharge—wastewater return flow, storm water inflow, and inflow from leaky infrastructure—also were estimated for 2005–15. Groundwater withdrawals for various sources, including public water supply, industrial, remediation, and agricultural, were compiled or estimated for the same period.These data were incorporated into the model development to represent the aquifer system geometry, boundaries, and initial hydraulic properties of the regional aquifers and confining units within the Long Island aquifer system. Average hydraulic conditions—water levels and streamflows—for 2005–15 were estimated using existing data from the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System database. Model inputs were adjusted to best match average hydrologic conditions using inverse methods as implemented in the parameter-estimating software PEST. The calibrated model was used to simulate average hydrologic conditions in the aquifer system for 2005–15.About 656 cubic feet per second of water was withdrawn on average annually for 2005–15 for water supply and an average of about 349 cubic feet per second of water recharged the aquifer annually from return flow and leaky infrastructure. Parts of New York City have drawdowns exceeding 25 feet, mostly because of urbanization and associated large decreases in recharge rates. Large areas in the western part of the island have drawdowns exceeding 10 feet, mostly from large groundwater withdrawals and sewering, which largely eliminates wastewater return flow. Water-table altitudes in eastern parts of the island increased by more than 2 feet in some areas as a result of wastewater return flow in unsewered areas and changes in land use. Changes in streamflows show a similar pattern as water-table altitudes. Streamflows generally decrease in western parts of the island where there are large drawdowns and increase in eastern parts of the island where water-table altitudes increase.

Do you ever wonder where your water comes from? If you live in Nassau or Suffolk County, the answer is, groundwater. Groundwater is water that started out as precipitation (rain and snow melt) and seeped into the ground. This seepage recharges the freshwater stored underground, in the spaces between the grains of sand and gravel in what are referred to as aquifers. Long Island has three primary aquifers—the upper glacial, Magothy, and Lloyd—which are part of the Long Island aquifer system. Currently [2019], this aquifer system contains about 50 trillion gallons of freshwater....

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in support of the Massachusetts Estuaries Project (MEP), delineated groundwater-contributing areas to various hydrologic receptors including ponds, streams, and coastal water bodies throughout southeastern Massachusetts, including portions of the Plymouth-Carver aquifer system and all of Cape Cod. These contributing areas were delineated over a 6-year period from 2003 through 2008 by using previously published regional USGS groundwater-flow models for the Plymouth-Carver region (Masterson and others, 2009), the Sagamore (western) and Monomoy (eastern) flow lenses of Cape Cod (Walter and Whealan, 2005), and lower Cape Cod (Masterson, 2004). The original USGS groundwater-contributing areas were subsequently revised in some locations by the MEP to remove modeling artifacts or to make the contributing areas more consistent with site-specific hydrologic conditions without further USGS review. This report describes the process used to create the USGS groundwater-contributing areas and provides these model results in their original format in a single, publicly accessible publication.

The U.S. Geological Survey developed a groundwater flow model for the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to northeastern North Carolina as part of a detailed assessment of the groundwater availability of the area and included an evaluation of how these resources have changed over time from stresses related to human uses and climate trends. The assessment was necessary because of the substantial dependency on groundwater for agricultural, industrial, and municipal needs in this area. The three-dimensional, groundwater flow model developed for this investigation used the numerical code MODFLOW–NWT to represent changes in groundwater pumping and aquifer recharge from predevelopment (before 1900) to future conditions, from 1900 to 2058. The model was constructed using existing hydrogeologic and geospatial information to represent the aquifer system geometry, boundaries, and hydraulic properties of the 19 separate regional aquifers and confining units within the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system and was calibrated using an inverse modeling parameter-estimation (PEST) technique. The parameter estimation process was achieved through history matching, using observations of heads and flows for both steady-state and transient conditions. A total of 8,868 annual water-level observations from 644 wells for the 1986 to 2008 period were combined into 29 water-level observation groups that were chosen to focus the history matching on specific hydrogeologic units in geographic areas in which distinct geologic and hydrologic conditions were observed. In addition to absolute water-level elevations, the water-level differences between individual measurements were also included in the parameter estimation process to remove the systematic bias caused by missing hydrologic stresses prior to 1986. The total average residual of –1.7 feet was normally distributed for all head groups, indicating minimal bias. The average absolute residual value of 12.3 feet is about 3 percent of the total observed water-level range throughout the aquifer system. Streamflow observation data of base flow conditions were derived for 153 sites from the U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrography Dataset Plus and National Water Information System. An average residual of about –8 cubic feet per second and an average absolute residual of about 21 cubic feet per second for a range of computed base flows of about 417 cubic feet per second were calculated for the 122 sites from the National Hydrography Dataset Plus. An average residual of about 10 cubic feet per second and an average absolute residual of about 34 cubic feet per second were calculated for the 568 flow measurements in the 31 sites obtained from the National Water Information System for a range in computed base flows of about 1,141 cubic feet per second. The numerical representation of the hydrogeologic information used in the development of this regional flow model was dependent upon how the aquifer system and simulated hydrologic stresses were discretized in space and time. Lumping hydraulic parameters in space and hydrologic stresses and time-varying observational data in time can limit the capabilities of this tool to simulate how the groundwater flow system responds to changes in hydrologic stresses, particularly at the local scale.