Joseph Harari

O presente estudo avaliou a aderência estatística de regimes de ondas obtidos por meio de modelos computacionais de duas bases conhecidas - DOW/SMC-Brasil e ERA5, e uma base empírica (BD-EMOSE), que compila o cadastro e as condições de ocorrência de eventos meteo-oceanográficos severos e extremos com impactos documentados na costa paulista. Por meio de abordagem multivariada, foram comparadas distribuições de altura significativa de onda e direção de propagação, com aplicação de diferentes limiares, clusterização e análise de correspondência entre eventos. Os resultados demonstram que as bases modeladas, especialmente o ERA5, reproduzem com alta fidelidade os padrões energéticos e direcionais captados pelo BD-EMOSE, validando seu uso para diagnóstico e previsão de extremos costeiros. A diferenciação entre regimes de forte agitação marítima (ressacas do mar) e de elevada sobrelevação do nível do mar (marés meteorológicas), assim como a análise de sensibilidade aos limiares, revelou a complexidade e a especificidade dos extremos na região. Embora persistam limitações amostrais e metodológicas, o estudo reforça o papel fundamental de cadastros de eventos que causaram impactos na orla costeira, como referência empírica indispensável para calibração, validação e aprimoramento dos modelos computacionais, consolidando sua importância estratégica para a gestão de riscos, planejamento de infraestrutura e medidas de adaptação frente aos impactos das mudanças climáticas.

Coastal areas are important, due to the great population and activities that occur there. Oceanographic conditions in coastal waters differ in many aspects of those in the open ocean: In general, spatial and temporal variations are greater. Coastal management requires environmental monitoring, commonly done by direct measurements, remote sensing, and the processing of numerical models. This chapter deals with the hydrodynamical numerical modeling of coastal areas, presenting its basic concepts, implementation and use strategies, and examples of model outputs and practical applications. These models aim to reproduce the coastal circulation, by computing the time evolution of the spatial distribution of sea level, currents, temperature, salinity, and density—considering the respective forcing of tides, winds, ocean–atmosphere exchanges and river contributions. Several examples of model outputs and coupling are presented, with maps of the distribution of temperature and salinity, which are important seawater properties; waste discharges by submarine emissaries, giving support to public health service; fate of plastic debris in the ocean, among others. Despite the enormous feasibility and utility of modern high-resolution numerical models, some warning must be considered, such as checking all the inputs and comparing the results to reliable independent information before their dissemination.

The coast of São Paulo, Brazil, is exposed to storm surges that can cause damage and floods. These storm surges are produced by slowly traveling cyclone–anticyclone systems. The motivation behind this work was the need to evaluate high-resolution forecasts of the mean sea-level pressure and 10 m winds, which are the major drivers of the wave model. This work is part of the activity in devising an early warning system for São Paulo coastal storm surges. For the evaluation, four case studies that had a major impact on the coast of São Paulo in 2020 were selected. Because storm surges that reach the coast may cause coastal flooding, precipitation forecasts were also evaluated. The mesoscale Eta model produces forecasts with a 5 km resolution for up to an 84 h lead time. The model was set up in a region that covers part of southeast and south Brazil. The ERA5 reanalysis was used to describe the large-scale synoptic conditions and to evaluate the weather forecasts. The cases showed a region in common between 35° S, 40° S and 35° W, 45° W where the low-pressure center deepened rapidly on the day before the highest waves reached the coast of São Paulo, with a mostly eastward, rather than northeastward, displacement of the associated surface cyclone and minimal or no tilt with height. The winds on the coast were the strongest on the day before the surge reached the coast of São Paulo, and then the winds weakened on the day of the maximum wave height. The pattern of the mean sea-level pressure and 10 m wind in the 36 h, 60 h, and 84 h forecasts agreed with the ERA5 reanalysis, but the pressure was slightly underestimated. In contrast, the winds along the coast were slightly overestimated. The 24 h accumulated precipitation pattern was also captured by the forecast, but was overestimated, especially at high precipitation rates. The 36 h forecasts showed the smallest error, but the growth in the error for longer lead times was small, which made the 84 h forecasts useful for driving wave models and other local applications, such as an early warning system.

Este livro aborda praticamente todos os temas mais importantes da Oceanografia moderna, com a finalidade de possibilitar a apreciação de um grande número de áreas de atuação desta ciência. Os leitores encontrarão textos muito bem elaborados e ilustrados sobre o início e o desenvolvimento da Ciência Oceanográfica, a composição do interior da Terra, o relevo oceânico, sedimentos no assoalho marinho, Geofísica marinha, a dinâmica de fluidos e a circulação marinha, ondas e marés, características físicas do Oceano Austral, a composição da água do mar, a poluição orgânica e por metais, a bioluminescência marinha, a vida no mar, seus habitantes e ecossistemas, o perfil e a atuação do oceanógrafo, dentre outros. O livro contempla 37 capítulos, totalizando mais de 900 páginas, distribuídos em: Histórico da Oceanografia, Oceanografia Geológica, Oceanografia Física, Oceanografia Química, Oceanografia Biológica, Oceanografia na Prática e o Profissional Oceanógrafo. Esta obra também representa os 75 anos – "Jubileu de Brilhante" do IOUSP comemorado neste ano de 2017. Outro marco importante é a "Década das Nações Unidas de Ciência Oceânica para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável", também conhecida como Década do Oceano, declarada pelas Nações Unidas em 2017, que está em curso entre 2021 e 2030.

Wetlands are ecosystems at the interface between terrestrial and aquatic environments, whether continental or coastal, natural or artificial, permanently or periodically flooded or with waterlogged soils and, as a result, they consist of a special system of multiple interest. In these areas, the waters can be fresh, brackish or salty, with plant and animal communities adapted to their water dynamics ( Ministério do Meio Ambiente, 2015 MINISTÉRIO DO MEIO AMBIENTE. 2015. Recomendação nº 7, 11 de junho de 2015. Dispõe sobre a definição de áreas úmidas brasileiras e sobre o sistema de classificação destas áreas. Brasília, DF : CNZU. Available on: https://www.gov.br/mma/pt-br/assuntos/ecossistemas-1/arquivos/recomendacao-cnzu-no-7.pdf https://www.gov.br/mma/pt-br/assuntos/ec... ). It is very important to understand the abiotic and biological properties of wetlands in order to develop integrated strategies for the management and conservation of these areas and their associated biodiversity. These regions are among the most productive environments in the world and are essential for human survival, as they generate various ecosystem services of provision, regulation, support and culture ( Ramsar, 2023a RAMSAR. 2023a. The importance of wetlands. Glamd, Ramsar. Available on: https://www.ramsar.org/about/our-mission/importance-wetlands https://www.ramsar.org/about/our-mission... ). One of the most effective strategies for the conservation of coastal or tidal wetlands is the establishment of Marine Protected Areas (MPA), as they are important for the development of species and maintenance of ecosystem dynamics. The Convention on Wetlands or Ramsar Convention on Wetlands (Ramsar Convention Secretariat, 2016) currently includes over 2,400 Ramsar Sites around the world, which cover more than 2.5 million square kilometers ( Ramsar, 2023a RAMSAR. 2023a. The importance of wetlands. Glamd, Ramsar. Available on: https://www.ramsar.org/about/our-mission/importance-wetlands https://www.ramsar.org/about/our-mission... ). In Brazil there are 27 Ramsar sites, which are priority wetlands areas for international conservation ( Ramsar Sites Information Service, 2023 RAMSAR. 2023b. Ramsar Sites Information Service. Gland, Ramsar. Available on: https://rsis.ramsar.org/ https://rsis.ramsar.org/... ). In São Paulo State, the Cananéia-Iguape Estuarine-Lagoon Complex (CIELC) integrates the Cananéia-Iguape-Peruíbe Environmental Protection Area (CIP-EPA) as a Biosphere Reserve (UNESCO) ( ICMBio, 2020 ICMBio (Instituto Chico Mendes de Conservação da Biodiversidade). 2020. Plano de Manejo Área de Proteção Ambiental Cananeia-Iguape-Peruíbe, SP. Projeto Manguezais do Brasil – Projeto PNUD BRA/07/G32, Iguape. ) and, in 2017, it was included in the Ramsar list of wetlands of international importance ( Ramsar, 2017 RAMSAR. 2017. Environmental protection Area of Cananéia-Iguape-Peruíbe. Gland, Ramsar Information Sheet. Available on: https://www.ramsar.org/sites/default/files/documents/library/handbook1_5ed_introductiontoconvention_e.pdf https://www.ramsar.org/sites/default/fil... ), which makes it a priority area for conservation.

Sea Level Rise (SLR) poses a range of threats to natural environments and built infrastructure in coastal zones around the world. Coastal cities in Brazil are vulnerable to the effects of SLR and to the intensity of storms that induce more storm surges and coastal inundation. Studies on vulnerability of coastal cities in Brazil have been developed by multidisciplinary and multinational collaboration between teams of natural and social scientists. Perhaps the best example is the METROPOLE Project (An Integrated Framework to Analyze Local Decision Making and Adaptive Capacity to Large-Scale Environmental Change), a partnership between Brazil, United States and United Kingdom developed to evaluate how local government, stakeholders and citizens may decide about adaptation options related to SLR and extreme events projections. In this paper we show how some results of the METROPOLE project have been considered in the definition of public polices of climate change adaptation and for practical actions to increase resilience of Santos by reducing beach erosion, to reduce climate risk.