Peter A. Allison

The Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction, 66 Ma, included the demise of non-avian dinosaurs. Intense debate has focused on the relative roles of Deccan volcanism and the Chicxulub asteroid impact as kill mechanisms for this event. Here, we combine fossil-occurrence data with paleoclimate and habitat suitability models to evaluate dinosaur habitability in the wake of various asteroid impact and Deccan volcanism scenarios. Asteroid impact models generate a prolonged cold winter that suppresses potential global dinosaur habitats. Conversely, long-term forcing from Deccan volcanism (carbon dioxide [CO₂]-induced warming) leads to increased habitat suitability. Short-term (aerosol cooling) volcanism still allows equatorial habitability. These results support the asteroid impact as the main driver of the non-avian dinosaur extinction. By contrast, induced warming from volcanism mitigated the most extreme effects of asteroid impact, potentially reducing the extinction severity. Significance We present a quantitative test of end-Cretaceous extinction scenarios and how these would have affected dinosaur habitats. Combining climate and ecological modeling tools, we demonstrate a substantial detrimental effect on dinosaur habitats caused by an impact winter scenario triggered by the Chicxulub asteroid. We were not able to obtain such an extinction state with several modeling scenarios of Deccan volcanism. We further show that the concomitant prolonged eruption of the Deccan traps might have acted as an ameliorating agent, buffering the negative effects on climate and global ecosystems that the asteroid impact produced at the Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary.

Reef corals are currently undergoing climatically driven poleward range expansions, with some evidence for equatorial range retractions. Predicting their response to future climate scenarios is critical to their conservation, but ecological models are based only on short-term observations. The fossil record provides the only empirical evidence for the long-term response of organisms under perturbed climate states. The palaeontological record from the Last Interglacial (LIG; 125 000 years ago), a time of global warming, suggests that reef corals experienced poleward range shifts and an equatorial decline relative to their modern distribution. However, this record is spatio-temporally biased, and existing methods cannot account for data absence. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to estimate reef corals' realized niche and LIG distribution, based on modern and fossil occurrences. We then make inferences about modelled habitability under two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Reef coral ranges during the LIG were comparable to the present, with no prominent equatorial decrease in habitability. Reef corals are likely to experience poleward range expansion and large equatorial declines under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. However, this range expansion is probably optimistic in the face of anthropogenic climate change. Incorporation of fossil data in niche models improves forecasts of biodiversity responses under global climatic change.

In the lead-up to the Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction, dinosaur diversity is argued to have been either in long-term decline, or thriving until their sudden demise. The latest Cretaceous (Campanian–Maastrichtian [83–66 Ma]) of North America provides the best record to address this debate, but even here diversity reconstructions are biased by uneven sampling. Here we combine fossil occurrences with climatic and environmental modelling to quantify latest Cretaceous North American dinosaur habitat. Ecological niche modelling shows a Campanian-to-Maastrichtian habitability decrease in areas with present-day rock-outcrop. However, a continent-wide projection demonstrates habitat stability, or even a Campanian-to-Maastrichtian increase, that is not preserved. This reduction of the spatial sampling window resulted from formation of the proto-Rocky Mountains and sea-level regression. We suggest that Maastrichtian North American dinosaur diversity is therefore likely to be underestimated, with the apparent decline a product of sampling bias, and not due to a climatically-driven decrease in habitability as previously hypothesised.

Modern mangroves are among the most carbon-rich biomes on Earth, but their long-term (≥10⁶years) impact on the global carbon cycle is unknown. The extent, productivity and preservation of mangroves are controlled by the interplay of tectonics, global sea level and sedimentation, including tide, wave and fluvial processes. The impact of these processes on mangrove-bearing successions in the Oligo–Miocene of the South China Sea (SCS) is evaluated herein. Palaeogeographic reconstructions, palaeotidal modelling and facies analysis suggest that elevated tidal range and bed shear stress optimized mangrove development along tide-influenced tropical coastlines. Preservation of mangrove organic carbon (OC) was promoted by high tectonic subsidence and fluvial sediment supply. Lithospheric storage of OC in peripheral SCS basins potentially exceeded 4,000 Gt (equivalent to 2,000 p.p.m. of atmospheric CO₂). These results highlight the crucial impact of tectonic and oceanographic processes on mangrove OC sequestration within the global carbon cycle on geological timescales.

Turbidity currents are one of the main drivers of sediment transport from the continental shelf to the deep ocean. The resulting sediment deposits can reach hundreds of kilometres into the ocean. Computer models that simulate turbidity currents and the resulting sediment deposit can help us to understand their general behaviour. However, in order to recreate real-world scenarios, the challenge is to find the turbidity current parameters that reproduce the observations of sediment deposits. This paper demonstrates a solution to the inverse sediment transportation problem: for a known sedimentary deposit, the developed model reconstructs details about the turbidity current that produced the deposit. The reconstruction is constrained here by a shallow water sediment-laden density current model, which is discretised by the finite-element method and an adaptive time-stepping scheme. The model is differentiated using the adjoint approach, and an efficient gradient-based optimisation method is applied to identify the turbidity parameters which minimise the misfit between the modelled and the observed field sediment deposits. The capabilities of this approach are demonstrated using measurements taken in the Miocene Marnoso-arenacea Formation (Italy). We find that whilst the model cannot match the deposit exactly due to limitations in the physical processes simulated, it provides valuable insights into the depositional processes and represents a significant advance in our toolset for interpreting turbidity current deposits.

The Balingian Province of NW Borneo is a major hydrocarbon-bearing region with production dominantly from Early Miocene (cycle II) coastal to lower coastal plain deposits. A regional sedimentological synthesis is outlined from the main productive interval of three offshore oilfields, which are representative of the depositional environments and stratigraphic architecture in cycle II. Four types of vertical facies successions are recognized: (1) fluvio-tidal channel; (2) tide-dominated delta front; (3) wave-dominated shoreface; and (4) barrier lagoon. The facies successions demonstrate that cycle II consists of a tide-dominated delta system that is partly analogous to the modern Rajang Delta and Lupar Embayment of southern Sarawak. Fluvio-tidal channel and tide-dominated delta successions represent periods of river-fed progradation. Wave-dominated shoreface and barrier lagoon facies successions represent depositional systems that developed during periods of transgression and/or delta lobe abandonment. Cycle II consists of several high-order sequences stacked together into two lower-order, c. 100–300 m thick fining-upwards, unconformity-bounded megasequences. This stratigraphic architecture reflects a combination of hinterland denudation and long-term eustatic sea-level rise. These trends were interrupted by frequent, higher-order relative sea-level falls, which were a result of movement along the West Balingian Line fault zone. Variations in the thickness of megasequences between the three oilfields reflect fluctuations in tectonically driven subsidence rates. This exerted a fundamental control on the reservoir architecture, zonation and correlation and provides a basis for comparing field behaviour.