ZBZsolt Bagoly

Zsolt Bagoly

*This is an algorithmically generated author record based on publicly available information.

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Previous Organizations / Institutes

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Zsolt Bagoly has a total of 221 co-authors. Here are the top co-authors by number of shared publications:


Latest Publications

  • Open Access

    Quantifying Spatial Discrepancies in Gamma-Ray Bursts with Information Entropy

    by István I. Rácz, Zoltan Benko, Zsolt Bagoly

    Assessing whether different observational selection effects and spectroscopic redshift determination methods introduce spatial biases is critical for reliable cosmological and large-scale structure studies. In this paper, we address the fundamental scientific question of whether Gamma-Ray Burst subsets obtained via rapid optical afterglow follow-ups and host galaxy observations share an identical spatial distribution. These two observational subsets are denoted as A and H, respectively, and correspond to different spectroscopic redshift determination methods acting as virtual detectors. We demonstrate a strict theoretical and statistical framework for testing this spatial invariance hypothesis using Swift Satellite data. The observed events are modeled as realizations of an inhomogeneous Poisson point process on the celestial sphere, applying a comprehensive suite of non-parametric, information-theoretic, and model selection techniques, including spatial relative risk functions, the Syrjala test, parametric bootstrap procedures, and Wasserstein/Jensen–Shannon divergences. Our results demonstrate that the spatial distributions and scale-dependent clustering properties of the two subsets are statistically indistinguishable (p = 0.41 for the Syrjala test, p = 0.76 for model selection, JSD=0.335 nats and W1=0.230 rad. for information and transport metrics, and p = 0.65 for Ripley’s L-function). Although shared large-scale structural residuals appear due to unmodeled background effects (such as the galactic plane), there is no evidence of differential spatial bias between the subsets. Consequently, these findings confirm that data from both determination methods can be reliably combined in future cosmological applications.

  • Open Access

    Spheroidal Resampling Analysis of High-Redshift Gamma-Ray Burst Spatial Densities

    by Istvan Horvath, Zsolt Bagoly, Lajos G. Balazs, Jon Hakkila, Janos Horvath, Sandor Pinter, Istvan I. Racz, Peter Veres, Bendegúz Koncz

    Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are bright transient sources that can be observed at high redshift. They can therefore be used as tracers of the distant large-scale structure, although the GRB redshift sample is sparse and affected by strong selection effects. We analyze the three-dimensional distribution of 542 GRBs with spectroscopic redshifts. The method extends our earlier spherical-window search by replacing spherical counting volumes with axisymmetric spheroids. The angular positions of the observed GRBs are kept fixed in the Monte-Carlo null samples, while the redshifts are shuffled within each Galactic hemisphere. In the Northern Galactic hemisphere, the overdensity associated with the Hercules–Corona Borealis Great Wall remains significant for a range of spheroidal shapes. This supports the stability of the previously reported signal and shows that it is not only a consequence of using spherical counting volumes. In the Southern Galactic hemisphere, the same method finds no structure with comparable significance. A small candidate grouping is present, but its significance is only marginal, and it is sensitive to the small number of events. We conclude that spheroidal resampling is a useful check of GRB overdensity searches, but the physical nature of any candidate structure still requires confirmation with independent tracers such as galaxy or quasar samples.

  • Open Access

    Recovering Gamma-Ray Burst Redshift Completeness Maps via Spherical Generalized Additive Models

    by Zsolt Bagoly, Istvan I. Racz

    We present an advanced statistical framework for estimating the relative intensity of astrophysical event distributions (e.g., Gamma-Ray Bursts, GRBs) on the sky tofacilitate population studies and large-scale structure analysis. In contrast to the traditional approach based on the ratio of Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), which is characterized by numerical instability and bandwidth sensitivity, this work applies a logistic regression embedded in a Bayesian framework to directly model selection effects. It reformulates the problem as a logistic regression task within a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) framework, utilizing isotropic Splines on the Sphere (SOS) to map the conditional probability of redshift measurement. The model complexity and smoothness are objectively optimized using Restricted Maximum Likelihood (REML) and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), ensuring a data-driven bias-variance trade-off. We benchmark this approach against an Adaptive Kernel Density Estimator (AKDE) using von Mises–Fisher kernels and Abramson’s square root law. The comparative analysis reveals strong statistical evidence in favor of this Preconditioned (Precon) Estimator, yielding a log-likelihood improvement of ΔL≈74.3 (Bayes factor >1030) over the adaptive method. We show that this Precon Estimator acts as a spectral bandwidth extender, effectively decoupling the wideband exposure map from the narrowband selection efficiency. This provides a tool for cosmologists to recover high-frequency structural features—such as the sharp cutoffs—that are mathematically irresolvable by direct density estimators due to the bandwidth limitation inherent in sparse samples. The methodology ensures that reconstructions of the cosmic web are stable against Poisson noise and consistent with observational constraints.


  • Open Access

    Scanning the Universe for Large-Scale Structures Using Gamma-Ray Bursts

    by Istvan Horvath, Zsolt Bagoly, Lajos G. Balazs, Jon Hakkila, Bendeguz Koncz, Istvan I. Racz, Peter Veres, Sandor Pinter

    In the past few decades, large universal structures have been found that challenge the homogeneity and isotropy expected in standard cosmological models. The largest of these, identified as the Hercules–Corona Borealis Great Wall, was found in 2014 in the northern galactic hemisphere in the redshift range of 1.6≤z≤2.1. Subsequent studies used an increasing gamma-ray burst database to show that the cluster was unlikely to have been caused by statistical sampling uncertainties. This study re-examines burst clustering in the northern galactic hemisphere using a recently developed methodology. Evidence is provided that the Hercules–Corona Borealis Great Wall cluster is larger than previously thought, with members potentially spanning the redshift range of 0.33≤z≤2.43. The extension of this cluster’s size does not appear to have been due to statistical variations or sampling biases.


  • Open Access

    The two-point correlation function of the GRBs

    by Zsolt Bagoly

    We analysed the spatial distribution of 542 GRBs with measured position and spectroscopic redshift up to 31 Aug 2022. Using kernel smoothing, we determined the GRB’s Sky Exposure Function and used it in the generation of random catalogues. The spatial Two-Point Correlation Function for GRBs was determined by partitioning the data based on the origin of the redshift (afterglow or host galaxy). The resulting ξ(r) Two-Point Correlation functions remain below the 3σ noise level, suggesting no significant differences between the Two-Point Correlation functions of the random and real datasets.


  • Open Access

    The spatial distribution of GRBs

    by Zsolt Bagoly, Lajos G. Balazs, Zsuzsa Horvath, Istvan Horvath

    We analysed the different aspects of the spatial distribution of 542 Gamma-Ray Bursts with precisely determined positions and spectroscopic redshifts. The data were divided according to the origin of the redshift (afterglow or host galaxy). The yearly rate of afterglow and host-based redshift observations are different, with only a few host observations in the recent years. Since the launch of the Swift, the rate of afterglow observations fall exponentially by 50 % in 15 years, potentially affecting all planned GRB missions. We also analysed the rest-frame T90 values from the Swift BAT and FERMI GBM catalogues with the redshift data. The host- and afterglow-based points are separated in the redshift range due to observational effects, but no direct distinction could be made between the rest-frame T90 values. The correlation analysis between the GRB redshift and sky position shows that the GRB distribution could be factorised into a separate sky and radial components.

  • Open Access

    The Spatial Distribution of Gamma-Ray Bursts with Measured Redshifts from 24 Years of Observation

    by Zsolt Bagoly, István Horvath, István I. Racz, Lajos G. Balázs, L. Viktor Tóth

    Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are the most luminous objects known: they outshine their host galaxies, making them ideal candidates for probing large-scale structure. Our aim is to determine the Spatial Two-Point Correlation Function of the GRBs with spectroscopic redshifts. We used all observations till 4 June 2021, and we also split the data according to the origin of the redshift (afterglow or host galaxy). We analyzed the possible correlation between the GRB redshift and sky position. There is only one region, called the Faraway GRB Patch, where nine distant GRBs shows deviation from the randomness with an ≈1% significance, showing that the sky and the radial component of the GRB distribution could be factorized and both can be determined independently. The GRBs’ cumulative monthly distribution was used to show that it is impossible to synthesize the Sky Exposure Function, even from the perfect observational logs. We estimated the Sky Exposure Function using the Gaussian kernel, and with the radial distribution, it was used for the estimation of the Spatial Two-Point Correlation Function. Monte Carlo simulations were used to determine the Poissonian errors. Our result shows that the current Spatial Two-Point Correlation Function estimations are consistent with zero for the full and the afterglow/host galaxy datasets.


  • Open Access

    Does the GRB Duration Depend on Redshift?

    by Istvan Horvath, Istvan I. Racz, Zsolt Bagoly, Lajos G. Balázs, Sandor Pinter

    Several hundred gamma-ray burst (GRB) redshifts have been determined to date. One of the other important properties—besides the distance—of the GRBs is the duration of the burst. In this paper, we analyse these two important quantities of the phenomena. In this paper, we map the two-dimensional distribution and explore some suspicious areas. As it is well known that the short GRBs are closer than the others, we search for parts in the Universe where the GRB duration is different from the others. We also analyse whether there are any ranges in the duration where the redshifts differ. We find some suspicious areas, however, no other significant region was found than the short GRB region.


  • Open Access

    Transient detection capabilities of small satellite gamma‐ray detectors

    by Zsolt Bagoly, Lajos G. Balázs, Gábor Galgóczi, Masanori Ohno, András Pál, Jakub Řípa, L. Viktor Tóth, Norbert Werner

    The new, small satellite‐based gamma‐ray detectors, like Cubesats Applied for MEasuring and Localizing Transients, will provide a new way to detect gamma transients in the multimessenger era. The efficiency and the detection capabilities of such a system will be compared with current missions, for example, Fermi Gamma‐ray Burst Monitor (GBM). We used the Fermi GBM's observed short gamma‐ray burst light curves aggregated from observed discrete detector event for the simulation input. The corresponding direction‐dependent detector response matrices were used to generate photon counts and light curves around a simulated event, enabling to determine the statistics. This method can be used in the future for trigger algorithm and detector system development, and also to estimate the efficiency of the data analysis pipeline regarding the observable gamma‐ray bursts' parameters as well as other electromagnetic transients.


  • Classifying GRB 170817A/GW170817 in a Fermi duration–hardness plane

    by I. Horváth, B. G. Tóth, J. Hakkila, L. V. Tóth, L. G. Balázs, I. I. Rácz, S. Pintér, Z. Bagoly