Fulya Aydin-Kandemir

This study aims to reveal the relationship of the expansion of the salt-covered area of Lake Tuz in Turkey with the drought in the region and the change of the groundwater storage. The changes in the salt-covered area in Lake Tuz between 1985 and 2021 (37 years), which have been obtained by August satellite images, are compared with those in groundwater and the 12-month Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) variations in the lake. The results show that the salt-covered area on the lake surface was most strongly correlated with the SPEI spring (−0.78, t test; p < 0.01) during the period of August 1985–2021, implying that the drought conditions in spring determines 62% of the salt-covered area on the lake in August. The groundwater storage (GWS) in June and July and the salt-covered area in August in Lake Tuz also depict a moderate correlation of −0.60 at 1% significance level from 1985 to 2021. The results illustrate that the SPEI and GWS values decreased, while the salt-covered area on the lake surface expanded in the Lake Tuz Basin over the past 37 years. The trends of the salt-covered area, SPEI, and GWS became especially pronounced after 1999, during which the SPEI change and similar changing trends appeared in the GWS and salt-covered area. These patterns of increase in drought severity and decreasing groundwater storage are expected to increasingly compromise the future of Lake Tuz and cause ecological and environmental problems in the near future.

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) is considered one of the major drivers of climate change, although climate change can also foster direct or indirect influences leading to LULCC. The objective of the presented study is to offer a strategic observation frame as the land use and land cover (LULC) transitions are grouped to define the cover flows (CFs). The Küçük Menderes River Basin (KMRB), which is located in the west of Turkey was examined as the case study. Through LULCC modelling via the employment of multi-layer perceptron (MLP), cellular automata (CA), and Markov Chain methods, future LULC maps were projected up to the horizon of 2050. Hydrologic responses of the basin to LULCC were determined by the developed hydrologic model, which is generated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The superimposed impacts of the examined effects of LULCC have been investigated by the CF types. This way, the individual impacts of the CFs have been assessed. In the case of the KMRB, projected annual runoffs for the year 2050 cover map represent a 9.06% reduction and the major responsible CF type for this reduction is the conversion from forest to non-irrigated agricultural land cover by 22.90%.

This study examines the drying in the Sultan Marshes and the spatio-temporal change of different land cover classes. Corine land cover change outputs were examined for four periods (1990–2000; 2000–2006; 2006–2012; and 2012–2018). During these analyses, the period when the water area changes in the lakes occur the most was determined. Moreover, other land cover changes occurring in the region were defined. The LCC results were compared and discussed in terms of some human factors (i.e., human development index and terrestrial human footprint). According to the results of this study, it was observed that there was a severe decline in the lake surface water located in the Sultan Marshes National Park Area. The water’s surface in the lakes decreased by 50% in the 2000s compared to previous years and decreased until 2006. This withdrawal was prominent especially in Lake Yay and Lake Çöl. Considering the human factors (Human Development Index) and variables (terrestrial Human Footprint) in terms of the spatio-temporal land cover change, it is seen that the human development in the region increased from 0.54 to 0.81 from 1990 to 2018, and the human footprint increased the most in 1993. Water area changes occurred at a high rate between 1990–2000 and 2000–2006. It results from the growing demand for basic needs (such as water consumption and food diversity) with increasing human development and expanded agricultural practices in the region and overuse of the ground and aboveground waters that are the source of the lakes. Especially between 1990 and 2000, the high number of human interventions in the region caused the human footprint to be higher in 1993 than in 2009. Unless the Sultan Marshes have the proper planning and policies, it faces the danger of complete drying up with the effects of climate change in the future.

Fritillaria imperialis is a bulbous plant that has increased commercial value and contributes to rural development in Turkey. It is widely utilized in traditional medicine and pharmacy, and has great potential for use in modern pharmaceuticals in the future. As the effects of climate change on this plant have not been documented, this study aimed to understand how climate change might affect F. imperialis . The methodology of the study was divided into three steps: ( i ) database development, including the current distribution zones of F. imperialis and climatic parameters such as temperature and precipitation data; ( ii ) determination of the plant’s temperature and precipitation requirements; and ( iii ) Ecocrop’s plant climate suitability modeling (PCSM). As a result of the study, it was determined that climatic suitability would decrease below 20% in the plant’s current distribution area between 2,000 m and 3,000 m altitude. For the zones between 500–1,000 m altitude, the climatic suitability will be as high as 100%. Although there are zones where climatic suitability will increase by 2070, the general trend shows that suitability will decrease. This change in the plant ecosystem is explained by the decreased winter precipitation and snowfall but increased temperature and evaporation at higher altitudes. Fritillaria imperialis is expected to shift its geographic distribution to lower altitudes because of climate change.

Habitatlar üzerinde devam eden baskı ile artan nüfus, endüstriyel ve kentsel gelişim, artan tarım uygulamaları, istilacı türlerin artan tehditleri ve iklim değişikliğinin etkileri ile birlikte bugün tehlike altında olmayan birçok tür, gelecekte büyük olasılıkla tehdit altına girecektir. Bu nedenle tehdit altında olan ya da olmayan tüm türler için yaşayabilir popülasyonların sürdürülmesini sağlamak amacı ile ortaya koyulan eylemler, türlerin yerinde korunmasını esas almalı ve bu eylem planları gerekli müdahale derecesine bağlı olarak tür yönetimi, eylem, koruma veya kurtarma planları olarak sınıflandırılmalıdır. Bu çalışmada, gelecekte gerçekleştirilmesi önerilen tür yönetimi planlarındaki ilk adım olması amacı ile Dünya Doğa ve Doğal Kaynakları Koruma Birliği (IUCN) Kırmızı Listesi’nde yer alan ve ülkemizde soyu tükenme tehlikesi altında bulunan Fabaceae familyasına ait türlerin (Lathyrus, Astragalus, Vicia, Lotus, Thermopsis) detaylı bir araştırması gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışmada, (1) Fabaceae familyasına ait türlerin yayılış gösterdiği biyocoğrafik bölgelere, (2) yetiştiği habitatlara, (3) ekolojik özelliklerine, (5) karşı karşıya oldukları tehditlere, (6) ekonomik önemlerine, (7) etnobotanik özelliklerine ve halk arasındaki kullanım olanaklarına ilişkin detaylara yer verilmiştir. Ayrıca bu çalışma ile, türlerin lokasyonlarına ait güncel kayıtlar da değerlendirilmiştir. Yapılan değerlendirmeler sonucunda familyaya ait türlerin doğal yaşam alanlarına yönelik en önemli tehdit unsurlarının iklim değişikliği, aşırı otlatma, arazi ıslahı, saman yapma ve erozyon, baraj yapımı ve kentleşmenin neden olduğu bozulmalar olduğu görülmüştür. Tarımsal faaliyetler ve insan kaynaklı habitat kaybı ve bozulmaları da önemli tehdit unsurlarındandır. Bu çalışmaya göre ülkemizin önemli genetik zenginliklerinden olan ve IUCN Kırmızı Liste’sindeki Fabaceae familyasına ait türlerin nesillerini devam ettirebilmeleri amacı ile gerekli koruma önlemlerinin alınması ve koruma bilincinin geliştirilmesi gerekmektedir. Ayrıca, bu türlerin kullanım alanlarının belirlenmesi, ekolojik ve ekonomik önemlerinin saptanması son derece önemlidir. Türlerin korunmasına yönelik eylem planlarının hazırlanması ve genetik çeşitliliğin de içinde yer aldığı sürdürülebilir koruma ve kullanım stratejilerinin geliştirilmesi ise bu türlerin tüm yönleriyle araştırılmasına bağlıdır.