Robert L. Jenkins

Numerical simulation of sediment transport and subsequent morphological evolution rely on accurate parameterizations of sediment characteristics. However, these data are often not available or are spatially and/or temporally limited. This study approaches the problem of limited sediment grain-size data with a series of simulations assessing model sensitivity to sediment parameters and initial bed composition configurations in Delft3D, leading to improved modeling practices. A previously validated Delft3D sediment transport and morphology model for Dauphin Island, Alabama, USA, is used as the benchmark case. A method for the generation of representative sediment grain sizes and their spatially varying distributions is presented via end-member analysis of in situ surficial sediment samples. Derived sediment classes and their spatial distributions are applied to two sensitivity case simulations with increasing bed composition complexity. First, multiple sediment classes are applied in a single fully mixed layer, regardless of sediment type. Second, multiple sediment classes are applied in a thin, fully mixed transport layer with underlayers containing only the non-cohesive sediment classes below. Simulations were carried out in a probabilistic, Delft3D MorMerge configuration to capture long-term morphology change for 10 years. We found there is sensitivity to the inclusion of additional sediment classes and sediment distribution made evident in bed level and morphology change. Inclusion of highly mobile fine sediments altered model results in each sensitivity case. The model was also found to be sensitive to initial bed composition in terms of bed level and morphology change, with notable differences between sensitivity cases on decadal timescales, indicating an armoring effect in the second sensitivity case, which used the transport and underlayer bed configuration. The results of this study offer guidance for numerical modelers concerned with sediment behavior in coastal and estuarine environments.

The effects of interior headland restoration on estuarine sediment transport processes were assessed through process-based numerical modeling. Three proposed interior headland restoration scenarios in the Grand Bay estuary (Mississippi/Alabama) were modeled using Delft3D to understand impacts on suspended sediment concentrations, bed level morphology, and sediment fluxes under present-day conditions and a sea level rise (SLR) of 0.5 m, representing a high projection of SLR by the year 2050. Model results showed localized differences in bed levels near the restored features after a year of simulated morphologic change. The restored headland features acted as a sediment source to the immediate surroundings while also providing some non-significant sheltering effect of backshore shoals and marsh shorelines. Sediment fluxes were sensitive to wind directions and the presence of the restored headlands. However, regardless of wind direction, mean sea level, or restoration action, the greatest sediment fluxes were always export fluxes from the estuary, which were further increased with increased sea level. Suspended sediment concentrations were highly influenced by SLR in a non-linear manner. Sediment concentrations both increased and decreased depending on depth under SLR. Furthermore, SLR allowed for the suspension and deposition of sediments on the marsh platform. Overall, the influence of SLR was more impactful to changing sediment dynamics than the influence of the restoration features.

Models of alongshore sediment transport during quiescent conditions, storm‐driven barrier island morphology, and poststorm dune recovery are integrated to assess decadal barrier island evolution under scenarios of increased sea levels and variability in storminess (intensity and frequency). Model results indicate barrier island response regimes of keeping pace, narrowing, flattening, deflation (narrowing and flattening), and aggradation. Under lower storminess scenarios, more areas of the island experienced narrowing due to collision. Under higher storminess scenarios, more areas experienced flattening due to overwash and inundation. Both increased sea levels and increased storminess resulted in breaching when the majority of the island was not keeping pace and deflation was the dominant regime due to increased overtopping. Under the highest storminess scenario, the island was unable to recover elevation after storms and drowned in just 10 years.

Forecasting barrier island evolution provides coastal managers and stakeholders the ability to assess the resiliency of these important coastal environments that are home to both established communities and existing natural habitats. This study uses an established coupled model framework to assess how Dauphin Island, Alabama, responds to various storm and sea-level change scenarios, along with a suite of restoration measures, over the course of a decade. The coupled model framework uses validated models for long-term alongshore sediment transport (Delft 3D), short-term storm induced impacts (XBeach), as well as dune building and recovery (empirical dune growth model). This model framework was simulated with the various storm and sea-level change scenarios on a non-restored Dauphin Island, then a subset of the storm and sea-level change scenarios were applied to a suite of seven different restoration measures to determine how they would influence the morphologic evolution over a decadal period. Topographic and bathymetric changes captured in post-simulation digital elevation models were then passed on to partners for various simulations to determine the effects on habitat evolution and water quality as it relates to oyster reef and submerged aquatic vegetation.

First posted March 2, 2020 St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center U.S. Geological Survey 600 4th Street South St. Petersburg, FL 33701 Predicting the decadal evolution of barrier island systems is important for coastal managers who propose restoration or preservation alternatives aimed at increasing the resiliency of the island and its associated habitats or communities. Existing numerical models for simulating morphologic changes typically include either long-term (for example, longshore transport under quiescent conditions) or short-term (for example, storm-driven waves) processes, with limited capacity to predict the decadal time-scale that is often most relevant in coastal planning. As part of the Alabama Barrier Island Restoration Assessment, a methodology was developed to predict barrier island evolution on decadal time scales. The developed modeling scheme uses multiple models including (1) Delft3D; (2) the empirical dune growth model (EDGR); and (3) XBeach that run sequentially to simulate evolution of barrier island geomorphology. The model framework was developed and applied to hindcast the evolution of Dauphin Island, Alabama, between 2004 and 2015, and was assessed using lidar data over the same period.

Dauphin Island, Alabama, located in the Northern Gulf of Mexico just outside of Mobile Bay, is Alabama’s only barrier island and provides an array of historical, natural, and economic resources. The dynamic island shoreline of Dauphin Island evolved across time scales while constantly acted upon by waves and currents during both storms and calm periods. Reductions in the vulnerability and enhancements to the resiliency of Dauphin Island—through offshore sand placement, breach closure, berm construction, and other means—have been used to protect the island and its vital resources. Planning for a resilient Dauphin Island requires predicting the long-term evolution of the barrier island system and the dominant, temporally varying processes that influence it, including littoral alongshore sediment transport under typical wave conditions, beach and dune erosion, the island overwash and breaching that occur rapidly during storm events, and the recovery of primary sand dunes through Aeolian transport over decadal time scales. Littoral sediment transport within the Dauphin Island decadal-scale framework was simulated using the Delft-3D modeling software suite. The influences of wind, waves, water levels, and sediment transport are incorporated into the model. Model skill in the prediction of waves, water levels, currents, volumetric flow rates through inlets, and shoreline position was assessed by using a set of deterministic and statistical hindcast simulations. The Delft-3D modeling application described here can be coupled with validated models of storm-response and dune recovery to predict the evolution of Dauphin Island on decadal time scales.