Matthew Gray

This paper presents an analysis of Indigenous employment trends in Australia from 1981 to 2021, using nine iterations of 5-yearly Census data. It offers the most consistent long-term estimates available and situates these trends within broader shifts in the Australian labour market. Three key findings emerge. First, the overall increase in Indigenous employment over the 40-year period is primarily driven by the substantial rise in employment among Indigenous women, accounting for over 93% of the total growth. Second, employment rates for Indigenous men have remained largely stagnant, highlighting persistent structural barriers. Third, geographic and educational disparities continue to constrain Indigenous labour market participation, particularly in remote areas. From a long-term perspective, existing data sources offer valuable insights into employment trends and provide a foundational platform for understanding systemic patterns over time. At the same time, this long-term view invites critical reflection on the evolving nature of data collection and interpretation, particularly in relation to complex, identity-based variables. Recognizing both the contributions and limitations of current datasets underscores the importance of developing innovative, culturally responsive methodologies that can more accurately capture the multifaceted drivers of employment. This includes attending to dynamic factors such as the increasing visibility and self-determination of Indigenous identity, which may influence statistical representations and policy responses in nuanced ways.

Objectives: To systematically assess whether economic, social and community resources can protect against the impact of the Australian “ Black Summer” bushfires on adolescent psychological distress. Using 16 years of longitudinal data, we also test whether history of mental health problems, history of economic hardship puts youth at risk and whether a history of high parental warmth and low harsh parenting protects young people. Study design: Prospective, population-based cohort study; analysis of Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC) survey data Setting, participants: Adolescents in the nationally representative cross-sequential sample of Australian children recruited in 2004 for the Birth and Kindergarten cohort (aged 0-1 and 4-5 years at enrolment). Survey data from waves 9 (16-17 and 18-19 years for B and K Cohort) and waves 1 to 8 Main outcome measures: Psychological distress measured by the Kessler 10-item questionnaire, K10. Results: There were 2,726 respondents from the B and K Cohorts who had psychological distress information and demographic characteristics in Wave 9. We did not find that a history of financial hardship, unemployment, being partnered, high social support, household harmony and additional stressful life events moderated the association between fires and psychological distress. Family financial hardship or capacity to raise $2000 in an emergency in the previous wave, or over the prior 16 years did not increase or reduce the risk. Community collective efficacy, and history of positive parenting (high warmth, low harshness) was also not significant. History of high anxiety but not depressed mood was the only significant risk or protective factor. Those with a significant history of high anxiety had elevated distress levels when exposed to fire in the last 12 months compared to those with none or some history of high anxiety. Conclusions: Additional targeted support for youth for those with prior history of anxiety through the Better Access initiative may be particularly important. However, our findings do underscore that leaving prior mental health history aside, how robust the impacts of bushfires were on youth mental health and that being exposed to the Black Summer bushfires affected all youth irrespective of privilege or social address.

Objectives: To assess the impact of the Australian “Black Summer” bushfires and other disasters of 2019-2020 on adolescent psychological distress. For those exposed to a disaster test the types of disaster impacts associated with worse psychological distress. Study design: Prospective, population-based cohort study; analysis of Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC) survey data Setting, participants: Adolescents in the nationally representative cross-sequential sample of Australian children recruited in 2004 for the Birth and Kindergarten cohort (aged 0-1 and 4-5 years at enrolment). Survey data from waves 9 (16-17 and 18-19 years for B and K Cohort) and waves 4 to 8 (8-10 and 10-11 years ). Main outcome measures: Psychological distress measured by the Kessler 10-item questionnaire, K10. Results: There were 2,726 respondents from the B and K Cohorts who had psychological distress information and demographic characteristics in Wave 9. At wave 9 10% were exposed to bushfires in the 12-months prior, 9% to a storm or cyclone, 18% to at least one disaster and, 7% exposed to more than one disaster. In the previous 10 years 28% had a disaster exposure (waves 4 to 8). The most common disaster impacts were threats to property (40%), impacts on holiday plans (31 %) and advised to evacuate (17%). Exposure to bushfires and storm/cyclone were associated with higher distress in a linear regression model controlling for both demographic characteristics and previous exposure to disasters. For those exposed to a disaster or bushfire those who were advised to evacuate had significantly higher distress in a linear regression model with the same covariates. Conclusions: One-in-ten Australian adolescents were exposed to bushfires in 2019-2020 putting them at risk of a prolonged period of elevated psychological distress. For those who were advised to evacuate distress was even more pronounced and it is important to recognise that further mental health support may still be required.

The COVID-19 pandemic was the most severe global health crisis for a century. Most advanced democracies introduced restrictions on social interaction to reduce community infection. This article examines how public confidence in Australia’s federal system of government was affected by these restrictions. We use a longitudinal dataset collected nationally between 2020 and 2022 to evaluate how public confidence in both federal and state governments varied with the level of government-imposed COVID-19 restrictions. The results show that confidence in both levels of government surged in the initial stages of the pandemic and remained high for the first year, gradually declining thereafter. Variations in the level of restrictions had a significant longitudinal association with confidence, with a negative relationship with confidence in state governments and a positive relationship with confidence in the federal government. The public clearly distinguished between the responsibilities of the different levels of government in managing the health crisis.

The ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods ANU COVID-19 Impact Monitoring Survey Program asked the same group of respondents about their vaccine intentions in August 2020 and January 2021. The paper provides data on the vaccine willingness in Australia as of January 2021 and how this changed since August 2020 both at the national level and for particular individuals. The paper provides estimates of how vaccine willingness has changed for different population sub-groups and the individual level characteristics which are associated with changes in vaccine willingness. We find an overall decrease in vaccine willingness, with the biggest decline being those who would definitely get a vaccine as of August 2020 but said they would only probably get a vaccine as of January 2021. We also look at the factors associated with vaccine willingness, as well as the factors associated with change through time. Executive summary: The paper provides data on the vaccine willingness in Australia as of January 2021 and how this changed since August 2020 both at the national level and for particular individuals. There has been a substantial increase in vaccine resistance and hesitancy and a large decline in vaccine likeliness between August 2020 and January 2021 Combined, 21.7 per cent of Australians said they probably or definitely would not get a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine in January 2021, a significant and substantial increase from the 12.7 per cent of Australians who gave the same responses in August 2020. At the individual level, 31.9 per cent of Australians became less willing to get the vaccine between August 2020 and January 2021 in that they moved from a more to a less willing category. There were still some Australians who became more willing over the period to get vaccinated (9.9 per cent). The largest single flow across willingness categories was the 18.7 per cent of Australians who went from being definitely willing to get a COVID-19 vaccination to only probably willing to get one . There was a large decline in vaccine certainty, alongside increases in vaccine resistance. We found three attitudinal factors that were particularly important in explaining the decline in willingness. Those Australians who think too much is being made of COVID-19, those who have low confidence in hospitals and the health care system, and those who are not optimistic about the next 12 months had all decreased in terms of their willingness to get vaccinated once a vaccine is available. In addition to campaigns targeting vaccination directly, those programs that improve confidence, remind people of the dangers of COVID-19, but importantly highlight the potential for a much better 2022 all have the potential to improve vaccination rates . Females, Indigenous Australians, those who speak a language other than English at home and those who have not completed Year 12 have all became less willing to get a vaccine since August 2020 compared to the rest of the Australian population. These population groups are arguably the most urgent focus of any public health campaigns to improve willingness, both because they have low willingness to start with, but also because there is the potential opportunity to bring their willingness back to what it was in August 2020 when there was a smaller gap with the rest of the Australian population. There is a real need to consider a significantly enhanced public health campaign in languages other than English There is a need to convey information to the general public in a way that is informative, reassuring and salient for those without a degree

Background: High levels of vaccination coverage in populations will be required even with vaccines that have high levels of effectiveness to prevent and stop outbreaks of coronavirus. The World Health Organisation has suggested that governments take a proactive response to vaccine hesitancy ‘hotspots’ based on social and behavioural insights. Methods: Representative longitudinal online survey of over 3000 adults from Australia that examines the demographic, attitudinal, political and social attitudes and COVID-19 health behavior correlates of vaccine hesitance and resistance to a COVID-19 vaccine. Results: Overall, 59% would definitely get the vaccine, 29% had low levels of hesitancy, 7% had high levels of hesitancy and 6% were resistant. Females, those living in disadvantaged areas, those who reported that risks of COVID-19 was overstated, those who had more populist views and higher levels of religiosity were more likely to be hesitant or resistant while those who had higher levels of household income, those who had higher levels of social distancing, who downloaded the COVID-Safe App, who had more confidence in their state or territory government or confidence in their hospitals, or were more supportive of migration were more likely to intend to get vaccinated. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that vaccine hesitancy, which accounts for a significant proportion of the population can be addressed by public health messaging but for a significant minority of the population with strongly held beliefs, alternative policy measures may well be needed to achieve sufficient vaccination coverage to end the pandemic.

An underlying tension exists between the fundamental elements of accountability, government decision-making, performance management, evidence-based policy and the measurement of results. This article considers this through three lenses: evaluation of government policies and programs; program structures and performance indicators; and the challenges of big data. While use of new technologies and big data opens up opportunities for strengthened evidence-based policy, this does not address the tension between a disciplined results-based approach to government decision-making and the inherently political nature of these decisions. There remain also important challenges to the effective development and use of big data in government.