Deana Pennington

In addressing complex water management issues, participatory modeling (PM) and scenario analysis (SA) have emerged as pivotal tools for fostering stakeholder engagement, social learning, and collaborative decision-making. This study explores the efficacy of integrating PM and SA within a series of online workshops focused on the Middle Rio Grande River Basin. Data were collected using a mixed-methods approach, including surveys, workshop transcripts, and participant outputs from workshop activities. Through these workshops, participants from diverse backgrounds engaged in collaborative scenario-building exercises, interactive discussions, and hands-on simulations using the SWIM 2.0 model, fostering shared learning and deeper insights into regional water challenges. Our findings highlight the importance of group-level activities in enhancing participants’ understanding, engagement, and trust in modeling tools, which can lead to more informed decision-making processes. The workshops demonstrated significant improvements in SA completion and a deeper connection between participants and policy discussions. However, challenges remain in bridging the gap between SA and active decision-making, particularly in contexts where participants do not perceive themselves as decision-makers. This study underscores the potential of participatory approaches to address complex environmental issues, while also identifying areas for further refinement to enhance stakeholder empowerment and tool usability in collaborative settings.