Paula Carolina Ciampaglia Nardi

Objective: this study examines how fair value (FV) accounting affects the accuracy of financial analysts’ earnings forecasts and whether this effect varies by legal system (Common Law vs. Civil Law) and International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption.

Objective: This study investigates the impact of biases on the accuracy of financial analysts by distinguishing between analysts with higher and lower levels of accuracy through cluster analysis. Method: The analysis encompassed publicly traded companies in Brazil and the USA during the quarters of 2019, comprising 840 observations from 76 Brazilian firms and 16,402 observations from 880 U.S. firms. The cognitive biases examined included: anchoring, optimism, overconfidence, communal bias, representativeness, and realism, measured using Diction®. Data analysis was conducted using STATA® and SPSS®, employing analysis of variance (ANOVA), post-hoc ANOVA test, cluster analysis and multiple regression models. Results: Among the biases analyzed, anchoring—defined as the tendency to rely on past earnings as a reference point for future forecasts, was the only bias to exhibit consistent patterns across both accuracy groups and countries. This finding suggests that the stochastic effect of past profitability contributes positively to earnings forecasting accuracy. In the U.S. sample, cognitive biases were more strongly associated with analyst accuracy than in the Brazilian sample. Overconfidence and realism were particularly salient among the higher accuracy groups in the U.S. In Brazil, the only statistically significant result indicated a negative effect of optimism on forecasts issued by analysts in the higher accuracy group. The communal bias was found to negatively affect analyst accuracy in the U.S., regardless of accuracy level. Representativeness bias also had detrimental effect on analyst with lower accuracy in the U.S. Contributions: This study emphasizes the relevance of considering biases in the evaluation financial analysts and suggests that awareness of such biases may enhance investment decision-making. Specifically, analysts with overconfidence and realism in the U.S. tend to produce more accurate forecasts, whereas those influenced by optimism in Brazil, and communal or representativeness biases in the U.S., should be approached with caution.

Diante de crises, empresas podem querer manter a atratividade induzindo os usuários da informação contábil por meio do tom dos relatórios financeiros. Nesse contexto, o estudo verificou se as empresas não financeiras dos EUA utilizam um tom otimista no Management's Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) quando enfrentam redução das receitas de vendas em anos de crises. Considerando um período de 2005 a 2022, os resultados da regressão Dif-in-Dif com dados em painel indicaram que, na crise, as empresas com redução nas receitas tendem a adotar um tom otimista no MD&A, sugerindo que esse tom pode ser uma resposta estratégica às quedas de receita. Esse resultado é corroborado ao considerar duas amostras distintas: para médias empresas dos EUA e para o Brasil. A pesquisa ressalta a importância de analistas e investidores acompanharem os dados financeiros, além das análises do MD&A, principalmente em períodos de crise, de modo a reduzirem as incertezas nas decisões de investimento. Além disso, ratifica-se a discussão de reguladores quanto à necessidade de normativas que promovam melhorias no MD&A, bem como se evidencia a necessidade de controle de períodos de crise em determinantes dos tons dos relatórios financeiros divulgados pelas empresas.

Brazil is one of the emerging countries that has adopted the IFRS, and agribusiness plays a relevant role in the Brazilian economy, turning the country into an important player in the review and discussion process of international standards. The objective of this paper is to assess whether IAS 41 contributes to the enhancement of the quality of accounting information, given that the measure that was previously used was historical cost, with no changes in the future economic benefits being disclosured, resulting in low-quality information. To analyse agribusiness companies’ financial statements, five analysis sections were created: disclosure in the notes; value relevance; timeliness of fair value information on biological assets; earnings management; and experts’ opinion of the quality of the information on the biological assets. The results reveal that: there have been improvements in the compulsory disclosure required by IAS 41, but this disclosure is not yet suitable; variations in the fair value of biological assets are value-relevant, but not for bearer plants; the information on biological assets is not timely; there are signs of earnings management by companies with lower disclosure levels; analysts consider that non-financial information may be prepared more useful. No study was found in the literature that considered the combination of the level of disclosure of the notes to the financial statements, the value relevance, the timeliness of the fair value information, earnings management and analysts’ opinions.

Brazil is one of the emerging countries that has adopted the IFRS, and agribusiness plays a relevant role in the Brazilian economy, turning the country into an important player in the review and discussion process of international standards. The objective of this paper is to assess whether IAS 41 contributes to the enhancement of the quality of accounting information, given that the measure that was previously used was historical cost, with no changes in the future economic benefits being disclosured, resulting in low-quality information. To analyse agribusiness companies’ financial statements, five analysis sections were created: disclosure in the notes; value relevance; timeliness of fair value information on biological assets; earnings management; and experts’ opinion of the quality of the information on the biological assets. The results reveal that: there have been improvements in the compulsory disclosure required by IAS 41, but this disclosure is not yet suitable; variations in the fair value of biological assets are value-relevant, but not for bearer plants; the information on biological assets is not timely; there are signs of earnings management by companies with lower disclosure levels; analysts consider that non-financial information may be prepared more useful. No study was found in the literature that considered the combination of the level of disclosure of the notes to the financial statements, the value relevance, the timeliness of the fair value information, earnings management and analysts’ opinions.

O estudo analisou a relação entre otimismo, ancoragem, excesso de confiança, representatividade, realismo, comunalidade e tempo, com a acurácia na previsão de lucro de analistas. Foram consideradas empresas brasileiras de capital aberto em 2019, aplicando teste de correlação, diferença de média e regressão múltipla. Os resultados indicaram que a acurácia é influenciada negativamente pelo otimismo e positivamente pela ancoragem e comunalidade. Ademais, a incerteza presente na distância entre a previsão emitida e a divulgação do lucro por ação também implica negativamente na acurácia dos analistas. Adicionalmente, constatou-se que o valor justo, lucratividade, emissão de ADRs e setor auto regulamentado, são aspectos relacionados com maior acurácia. Desse modo, a pesquisa contribui com a literatura para reflexão quanto à necessidade de concatenar aspectos comportamentais e temporais aos financeiros, bem como para sinalizar a importância de que os modelos de previsão dos analistas considerem os aspectos comportamentais em suas tecnologias de informação.

O analista financeiro possui condições de reduzir a assimetria de informações entre empresas e investidores ao emitir previsões de resultados, contribuindo para o funcionamento do mercado de capitais, peça importante para o crescimento e financiamento das empresas. Nesse contexto, não foram encontrados estudos que relacionassem, de maneira direta, a existência de goodwill nas empresas brasileiras com a acurácia dos analistas financeiros. Portanto, o objetivo do estudo foi analisar a relação entre o goodwill e a acurácia da previsão de resultado por analistas financeiros. O foco foram as empresas brasileiras e norte-americanas de capital aberto, no período trimestral de 2010 a 2019, utilizando como método a regressão com dados em painel. Os resultados indicaram que, no Brasil, a existência de goodwill impacta negativamente na acurácia da previsão dos analistas, mas positivo no mercado norte-americano. Testes de confirmação foram aplicados considerando o grupo de ativo intangível, cujos resultados corroboraram com os encontrados para goodwill. Assim o estudo evidencia que o uso goodwill pode impactar de forma diferente a acurácia dos analistas diante de mercado distintos, especificamente quanto à origem legal, desenvolvimento do mercado de capitais, poder de enforcement, entre outros fatores. Isso deve ser levado em consideração nas decisões de investimento de instituições financeiras e participantes do mercado de capitais. Também contribui com a literatura na linha de pesquisa, ao sinalizar que a subjetividade presente no goodwill pode influenciar de modo distinto a acurácia dos analistas, fato que deve ser controlado em seus modelos de previsão.

Estudos anteriores que associaram a persistência do lucro à presença de ativos mensurados pelo valor justo investigaram empresas financeiras em mercados mais desenvolvidos, os quais encontraram evidências de que, o uso do valor justo melhora a persistência dos lucros. Neste estudo, foi investigada a relação entre a persistência do lucro e a presença de ativos mensurados pelo valor justo de empresas não financeiras da América Latina, conferindo a originalidade da pesquisa. Foram aplicadas regressões com dados em painel para uma amostra de empresas não financeiras de 2010 a 2018. Os resultados deste trabalho indicam que há uma menor persistência do lucro de empresas não financeiras que usam valor justo, independentemente do nível da hierarquia, implicando em perda da capacidade preditiva do lucro quando associado ao valor justo. Esses resultados podem ser úteis para analistas, investidores e outros stakeholders que usam a contabilidade para fins de previsão do desempenho. Finalmente, este estudo pode fomentar ainda mais a discussão acerca do uso do valor justo na contabilidade.

The objective of this study was to jointly analyze the importance of cognitive and financial factors in the accuracy of profit forecasting by analysts. Data from publicly traded Brazilian companies in 2019 were obtained. We used text analysis to assess the cognitive biases from the qualitative reports of analysts. Further, we analyzed the data using statistical regression learning methods and statistical classification learning methods, such as Multiple Linear Regression (MRL),k-dependence Bayesian (k-DB), and Random Forest (RF). The Bayesian inference and classification methods allow an expansion of the research line, especially in the area of machine learning, which can benefit from the examples of factors addressed in this research. The results indicated that, among cognitive biases, optimism had a negative relationship with forecasting accuracy while anchoring bias had a positive relationship. Commonality, to a lesser extent, also had a positive relationship with the analyst’s accuracy. Among financial factors, the most important aspects in the accuracy of analysts were volatility, indebtedness, and profitability. Age of the company, fair value, American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), performance, and loss were still important but on a smaller scale. The results of the RF models showed a greater explanatory power. This research sheds light on the cognitive as well as financial aspects that influence the analyst’s accuracy, jointly using text analysis and machine learning methods, capable of improving the explanatory power of predictive models, together with the use of training models followed by testing.

Objective: This study aimed to examine the relationship between financial restatements and the qualitative characteristics of the information disclosed, namely conservatism, persistence, relevance and timeliness, together with the relationship between the cost of raising funds with banks and investors, by observing the cost of debt and stock returns. Methods: The study considered quarterly data from 2010 to 2018, comparing Brazilian and US companies, using regression analysis of panel data. Results: The study results showed that the companies that need to issue financial restatements present accounting information of low quality. This scenario is evident for both Brazil and the US, whose results indicated non-conservative, non-persistent, non-relevant. As for timeliness, this quality has not worsened in Brazil in the context of restatements because it is not present in financial statements even without the context of restatements. About the USA, banks and investors do not seem to react to restatements, but, in Brazil, companies in need of bank financing should consider that a restatement is related to an increase in the cost of debt. A greater number of restatements was also observed for Brazilian companies, which may be related to a lack of enforcement. Contribution: The study contributes to the literature on the impact of financial restatements, and signals to investors, banks, and analysts the existence of a decrease in the quality of information, a factor that can be considered in their business valuation models.