Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel

William Shakespeare's Tragedy of King Richard III, written approximately in 1592, is the story of evil acts by the detested and misshapen hunchback, Richard, who plots to sow discontent among his brother, the King, and others, and has his brother murdered along with other wicked deeds in order to gain the throne. It opens with the line, “Now is the winter of our discontent” (p. 111, ed. Wright 1936). “The Winter of Our Discontent” is also the title of John Steinbeck's (1961) novel of a man who trades his moral convictions to reclaim lost family wealth. “Globalization and Its Discontents” is the title of Joseph Stiglitz's (2002) book that critiques rigid adherence by major economic institutions—such as the International Monetary Fund—to economic orthodoxy in the promotion of globalization. (JEL F6, D72, D3, O23, O24, L17, K33)

The literature has argued that developing countries are unable to adopt countercyclical monetary and fiscal policies due to financial imperfections and unfavourable political‐economy conditions. Using a world sample of up to 112 industrial and developing countries for 1984–2008, we find that the level of institutional quality plays a key role in countries’ ability and willingness to implement countercyclical macroeconomic policies. Countries with strong (weak) institutions adopt countercyclical (procyclical) macroeconomic policies, reflected in extended monetary policy and fiscal policy rules. The threshold levels of institutional quality at which policies are acyclical are found to be similar for monetary and fiscal policy.