Baldyrgan Jazykbayeva

Ensuring the financial stability of the regions in the context of global economic instability and changes in the modernization of the economy of Kazakhstan has become the main factor of sustainable development. The objective of the study is to develop a methodological approach to assessing and forecasting the financial sustainability of regional development in the context of economic modernization using the Karaganda region as a case study and to develop practical recommendations. The application of methods of analysis and synthesis, comparative and structural analysis, and dynamic analysis of socio-economic indicators made it possible to use econometric modeling methods to forecast GRP. Within the framework of a unified statistical and econometric approach, a linear trend model of the GRP dynamics of the Karaganda region was created based on official statistical data for 2010-2024, estimated by the least square’s method. The resulting model was used to generate point and interval forecast estimates of GRP for 2025-2027. The forecast results indicate a continued, stable, upward trend in regional economic development; even the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval reflects positive dynamics for the indicator. Furthermore, as the forecast horizon increases, the width of the confidence interval widens, indicating an increase in uncertainty and confirming the scenario-based, predictable nature of the forecast estimate with a limited amount of initial data. The research results can be used by state and local government bodies to adjust territorial development strategies, formulate investment policies, and improve the efficiency of budgetary resource use. Keywords: modernization, financial stability, strategic management, regional economy, gross regional product, forecasting.

The relevance of the study is related to the increasing importance of public-private partnership (PPP) for solving socially significant tasks and implementing large projects in conditions of a limited budget and lack of private investment. The aim of the work is to optimize the management of PPP projects by analyzing the current state, identifying key problems, and developing practical solutions. The research methodology includes the analysis of scientific literature and empirical observations. During the work, it was found that, despite Kazakhstan’s significant achievements in the development of PPP, such systemic problems as bureaucratic obstacles, financial risks, and insufficient readiness of facilities for transfer to private management remain. The main conclusions of the article emphasize the need to increase the competence of PPP participants, improve legislation, and apply new financial instruments (Stepanov et al., 2023). It is expected that the proposed measures will increase the volume of financing of PPP projects from 3,112 million tenge in 2023 to 4,697 million tenge in 2028. The paper highlights the importance of a systematic approach to PPP project management for the sustainable economic development of Kazakhstan (Stepanov & Legostayeva, 2022b).

External labour migration reflects the consequences of the implemented public policy reforms. Kazakhstan, as a country with a vulnerable and extremely unstable economy, demonstrates the high sensitivity of the population to the complication of economic conditions due to public sector reforms. For a long time, the number of emigrants remains high and poses a threat to the country’s labour market. Due to the crisis phenomena in Kazakhstan, work migration processes are intensifying. They are an inevitable consequence of the deterioration of living standards and the difficulty of people’s ability to self-sufficiency in the context of an economic downturn while playing a balancing role and potentially beneficial for each country. However, it is very difficult to assess the real scale of Kazakh migration processes and their impact on the state of the national labour market. The study of migration processes in the context of globalization occupies an important place in the works of both scientists and practitioners in all countries of the world, and is also the subject of the activities of the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the International Labour Organization (ILO), the International Committee on Migration, and the World Health Organization. The aim of this study is to analyze the current situation of immigration from Kazakhstan and its impact on the economic processes in the state from the point of view of public administration. The close relationship between migration and economic development is confirmed in our study by significant historical experience. It is still indisputable today. However, at the present stage, the nature of this relationship is much more complex and multidimensional and quite often is not unambiguous. The versatility of modern migration processes in the context of global development makes it necessary to develop new conceptual approaches to the study of the problem of labour migration, which will allow the evolution of migration policy, neutralize the negative consequences and unlock the development potential inherent in labour migration.

The paper describes the analysis and assessment of non-profit sector development drivers in the Republic of Kazakhstan. The authors identify the most significant factors that influence the nonprofit sector on the basis of multifactor correlation and regression analysis. The scale of the non-profit sector is determined on the basis of two indicators: the number of non-profit sector institutions and Global Venture Alliance (OVA). The authors have estimated two analysis options. The first option assesses the effect of the economy on the number of institutions (inflation, government expenditures on the social sphere, actual fmal consumption) and the effect of the population (employment, income, number of socially vulnerable groups). The most significant factors were income indicators, their correlation with the minimum subsistence level and the number of socially vulnerable groups. The second option considered GVA as a resulting indicator and studied the dependence of the sector's economic results on its potential, and the sector's state support on the population's standard of living and the number of socially vulnerable groups. The influence of the state social contract does not have a positive effect on the sector's GVA volume, which indicates the problem in its priorities and distribution mechanisms. The authors proposed a transition to the consumer subsidy model and infrastructure support for social entrepreneurship development as one of the priority directions of non-profit sector transformation.

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