Aizhan Iskakova

Ensuring the financial stability of the regions in the context of global economic instability and changes in the modernization of the economy of Kazakhstan has become the main factor of sustainable development. The objective of the study is to develop a methodological approach to assessing and forecasting the financial sustainability of regional development in the context of economic modernization using the Karaganda region as a case study and to develop practical recommendations. The application of methods of analysis and synthesis, comparative and structural analysis, and dynamic analysis of socio-economic indicators made it possible to use econometric modeling methods to forecast GRP. Within the framework of a unified statistical and econometric approach, a linear trend model of the GRP dynamics of the Karaganda region was created based on official statistical data for 2010-2024, estimated by the least square’s method. The resulting model was used to generate point and interval forecast estimates of GRP for 2025-2027. The forecast results indicate a continued, stable, upward trend in regional economic development; even the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval reflects positive dynamics for the indicator. Furthermore, as the forecast horizon increases, the width of the confidence interval widens, indicating an increase in uncertainty and confirming the scenario-based, predictable nature of the forecast estimate with a limited amount of initial data. The research results can be used by state and local government bodies to adjust territorial development strategies, formulate investment policies, and improve the efficiency of budgetary resource use. Keywords: modernization, financial stability, strategic management, regional economy, gross regional product, forecasting.

In the context of global turbulence and structural transformations of Kazakhstan’s economy, the stability of the financial base of regions acquires strategic importance. Karaganda region, as a major industrial center, demonstrates significant economic results; however, it remains vulnerable due to sectoral concentration, weak diversification, and infrastructure deterioration. The purpose of the study is to identify the socio-economic determinants influencing the financial stability of the region and to propose a practice-oriented approach to its assessment based on factor analysis. Comparative, structural analysis and economic-mathematical modeling methods were applied. The factor model identified the priority drivers of GRP growth: investments in fixed capital, development of SMEs, employment, and the index of industrial production. The proposed approach can be applied in the development of regional strategies and the optimization of investment policy. The analysis revealed that strengthening investment activity, supporting entrepreneurship, and modernizing the production base are key conditions for the long-term sustainability of the Karaganda region.