Eliza Kalbarczyk

The growing popularity of climate change adaptation planning in cities raises questions regarding its effectiveness in mitigating climate-related threats to urban areas. This study aimed to assess the extent to which adaptation measures included in municipal adaptation plans address identified climate threats. The attempt to categorize planned adaptation measures according to their potential links to mitigating selected climate threats represents a new approach to categorizing these measures. This study uses 44 municipal adaptation plans (MAPs) for climate change for the largest cities in Poland, developed between 2015 and 2020. The main types of climate hazards identified and included in the MAPs are heat waves, heavy rainfall, urban flooding, droughts, and strong winds. A comparison of the types of planned measures and identified threats in individual MAPs reveals a partial discrepancy and, a predominance of indirect, preparatory measures. Once implemented, measures classified as indirect do not directly reduce climate threats or decrease their frequency and/or intensity. However, they support adaptation and enable the achievement of the expected adaptation out-comes once subsequent measures are implemented. A positive effect is only possible at a later stage, after implementing subsequent measures. The preparation process is necessary and unavoidable; however, it should be shortened to the absolute minimum to prioritize the physical implementation of adaptation measures in urban areas.

Celem pracy było określenie wzorców reakcji miast na zidentyfikowane zagrożenia klimatyczne i ich zróżnicowanie przestrzenne. Wzorce struktury działań wobec zagrożeń klimatycznych wyłoniono za pomocą hierarchicznej analizy skupień. Zidentyfikowano cztery wzorce adaptacji miejskiej w Polsce. W miastach położonych w strefie wybrzeża Bałtyku największej liczbie zagrożeń klimatycznych towarzyszył duży udział działań reaktywnych. W miastach wschodniej i północno-wschodniej Polski podejmowane były głównie działania adaptacyjne, południowej i centralnej Polski – antycypacyjne i mitygacyjne. W miastach na zachodzie kraju częściej planowane były działania łączące adaptację z mitygacją. Wykazano, że strategie adaptacyjne miast nie były przypadkowe, lecz powiązane z liczbą zagrożeń i położeniem geograficznym.

Oddawany do rąk czytelniczek i czytelników nr 80 czasopisma „Rozwój Regionalny i Polityka Regionalna” ma szczególny charakter. Został przygotowany z okazji jubileuszu Zakładu Ekonometrii Przestrzennej Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, utworzonego ponad 25 lat temu z inicjatywy profesora Waldemara Ratajczaka. Od dawna Zakład jest rozpoznawalnym ośrodkiem badań nad analizą przestrzenną, rozwojem regionalnym oraz zastosowaniami metod ilościowych w geografii społeczno-ekonomicznej i gospodarce przestrzennej. Biogram Pana Profesora, jednej z najwybitniejszych postaci polskiej geografii społeczno-ekonomicznej, przygotowany przez Panią Profesor Teresę Czyż oraz doktora Tomasza Kossowskiego, obecnego kierownika Zakładu Ekonometrii Przestrzennej, zamieszczony został na wstępie niniejszego tomu.

Dotychczasowe planowanie adaptacji w polskich miastach było fakultatywne i ukierunkowane głównie na największe miasta. Wejście w życie ustawy z dnia 27 listopada 2024 r. o zmianie ustawy – Prawo ochrony środowiska oraz niektórych innych ustaw, wprowadza obowiązek posiadania planu adaptacji do zmiany klimatu przez miasta liczące 20 tys. mieszkańców i więcej. Powstaje pytanie, czy nowy obowiązek planistyczny będzie stanowił duże wyzwanie dla miast w województwie wielkopolskim? W pracy zbadano stan planowania adaptacji do zmiany klimatu we wszystkich 119 miastach województwa wielkopolskiego. Ustalono, że obowiązek posiadania miejskiego planu adaptacji do zmiany klimatu (MPA) do 2 stycznia 2028 r. dotyczy 17 miast (14% wszystkich miast). W tej grupie 2 miasta spełniły już wymogi ustawy, 14 ma opracowany dokument dotyczący adaptacji lub jest w trakcie jego przygotowania, jedno miasto nie rozpoczęło przygotowania planu.

Extreme precipitation of a minimum daily value of >30 mm often initiates natural hazards such as floods, which in turn may not only lead to property damage but also present a danger to people’s health and lives. This paper mainly focuses on examining the trends and frequency of extreme daily precipitation (EDPr) in Poland. Also, it determines natural risk zones caused by EDPr of >30 mm, >50 mm, >70 mm, and >100 mm. In Poland, a significant positive trend was found for EDPr > 30 mm, >50 mm, and >70 mm in September, and for EDPr >100 mm in May. The most frequently recorded EDPr in Poland was >30 mm, the frequency of which ranged from 0.04% in February to nearly 3% in July. EDPr of >100 mm was recorded in 4 months, from May to August. An increase in the frequency of monthly EDPr in Poland occurred mainly in the southwestern and western parts. In Poland, three hazard zones of various frequencies of EDPr events were determined. In Zone III, which is in the southwestern and southern parts of the country, EDPr events occurred far more often than in Zone I; on average, four times more in the spring–summer season and slightly more than five times more in the autumn–winter season. The obtained results may help in the building of modern management and monitoring systems for the prevention of natural hazards caused by extreme precipitation.

Urban adaptation to climate change is necessary. However, this process occurs mainly in big cities. In less populated areas, climate change adaptation actions are conducted and investigated less frequently.The goal of the study was to examine whether and what type of climate adaptation actions are planned in small and medium-size towns and whether town size is related to the advancement of adaptation planning. The research was carried out in 5 differently sized towns in southern Wielkopolska Region: Żerków, Koźmin Wielkopolski, Pleszew, Jarocin, and Ostrów Wielkopolski. The analysed materials were the minutes of town council sessions in 2017–2021 and the resolutions adopted by town councils. The resolutions were analysed in terms of reference to pro-climate actions. It was found that climate-related topics were addressed by 4-6% of the resolutions adopted by town councils. In most cases, the planned actions were related to the following sectors: transport, power engineering, and water management. The study found a link between town size and the number of documents addressing pro-climate actions.

Meteorological drought (MDr) causes considerable economic losses in many countries, including in relation to agriculture. To examine the diversity of seasonal meteorological drought in Poland, the study uses monthly precipitation sums in the period from March to November, collected from 74 ground-based meteorological stations in 1951–2020. The paper defines meteorological drought on the basis of the standardized precipitation index in three seasons (SPI-3) and differentiates three degrees of drought intensity: extreme, severe and moderate. The study also calculates the size of Poland’s area affected by meteorological drought (AAMDr) and determines the relationship between AAMDr and SPI-3. MDr in Poland occurred more frequently in spring and autumn (every 4–5 years) than in summer (every 7 years). In the areas affected by extreme drought, precipitation was below the average, mainly ≤50% of the climatic norm, and air temperature values were below or above the average of the climatic norm, mainly ranging from −1.0 to 1.0 °C. A significant negative correlation between AAMDr and SPI-3 indices was found. The obtained results could be useful for managing climatic risk and developing regional and local agriculture adaptation plans aimed at mitigating the effects of climate change.

Deficient precipitation (dPr) in the growing season, especially in critical periods, affects plant condition and determines the quality and quantity of obtained yields. Knowledge about the variability and distribution of dPr is essential to mitigate its effect on agricultural soils and on crop and livestock production. The goal of the work is to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of spring precipitation deficiency and also to indicate the zones of risk and variability of its occurrence in Poland. It was assumed that dPr occurred when total monthly precipitation in a given year accounted for ≤75% of the total multi-year mean (1951–2018). In the spring season, the multi-year mean of the area covered by deficient precipitation (ACDP) amounted to 33% and fluctuated between approximately 31% in May and approximately 35% in March. The study distinguished four zones in Poland that vary in terms of the risk and variability of spring precipitation deficiency. The obtained results may be used, for example, to assess the needs for irrigation in the changing climate conditions, to model the growing season and yields of cultivated plants, and to select adaptation measures for agriculture in response to climate change.