Marcelo Melo Ramalho Moreira

Corn is Brazil’s second-most cultivated crop (21 Mha). Second-crop corn (SCC) represents 80% of this area and accounts for 8% of global production, making it a promising feedstock for food, feed, and biofuels with reduced land-use change (LUC) pressure. Assessing the net CO₂ balance (NCB) from direct LUC (dLUC) and soil management practices (SMP) is essential to quantify its decarbonization potential. This study provides the first national-level mapping of SCC in Brazil for 2023, including land-use/-cover transitions over the previous 20 and 10 years and associated NCB. SCC expansion over natural vegetation declined from 13% (2003–2023) to 3.6% (2013–2023). The 20-year dLUC NCB ranged from 0.6 to 0.9 t CO ₂ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, below published values. SMP contributed −0.1 to −0.2 t CO ₂ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, offsetting ~20% of dLUC. Combined dLUC+SMP NCB for SCC ethanol ranged from 2.3 to 5.3 and 0.3 to 1.5 g CO ₂ MJ⁻¹ for the respective periods.

In 2017, Brazil launched its National Biofuel Policy (RenovaBio) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation matrix, aligned with the National Determined Contribution commitments under the Paris Agreement. The authors of this Technical Note formed a working group that structured the methodological framework for RenovaCalc, the computational tool used by producers to quantify the carbon intensity of biofuels certified under RenovaBio. The framework is based on the Life Cycle Assessment approach, in accordance with internationally recognized standards and bioenergy policy guidelines. For the 2025 cycle, 331 production units (75% of Brazil’s total) had their biofuels under certification obtained using RenovaCalc, which is currently available for biodiesel, ethanol, biomethane, and sustainable aviation fuel produced from numerous feedstocks. The calculator is widely adopted and possibly the most important life cycle tool in Brazil.

This paper investigates the relationship between sugarcane ethanol production and food security in Brazil. It presents an original investigation of the multidimensionality of food security through two econometric approaches, using municipal‐level panel data and household‐level microdata. The results do not support the “food versus fuel” hypothesis. Our findings suggest that efficient large‐scale biofuel production can be combined with the population’s food security, aligning with sustainability goals.

This study investigates the relationship between corn prices in Brazil and the international market, considering a rise in corn ethanol production in Brazil's Midwest region since 2017. Did the entry of the corn ethanol industry in Brazil affect the relationship between domestic and international corn prices? A cointegration analysis was made with a monthly time series from May 2005 to August 2023 controlling for different exogenous events or shocks that may have affected global agricultural markets. The study's findings indicate a stable long‐term relationship between the international and Brazilian corn prices, with changes in international prices being predictors of variations in Brazilian domestic prices, while the opposite was not statistically supported. The study also found no evidence to support the claim that the entry of the corn ethanol industry into Mato Grosso state in 2017 impacted the prices paid to local producers. Therefore, the increase in Brazilian corn prices cannot be attributed to additional demand for corn by local mills, an important result that contributes to discussions such as food versus fuel and indirect land use change.

We evaluate the fast-expanding food-energy system of double-cropped corn ethanol in the Brazilian Center-West region using a novel combination of environmental and socio-economic models. Based on this comprehensive approach, we find that this system provides renewable and affordable energy (5 billion liters of ethanol, 600 MWh of electrical power) and feed (4 thousand tonnes of distillers dried grains), reduces greenhouse gas emissions (9.3 million to 13.2 million tons of CO2e), saves land (160 thousand hectares), boosts regional income growth and consumption (0.05% to 0.6% increase in household income), improves food security, and benefits ecosystems and human health. These impacts are amplified when carbon capture and storage is coupled into the process. Key features responsible for this outcome include the integration of feedstock supply into existing practices and the use of sustainable biomass to provide process energy. Future analysis should consider region-specific factors when incorporating these features into other bioenergy systems.

This work brings a refined estimation of the land use change and derived CO₂ emissions associated with sugarcane cultivation, including changes in management practices and refined land-use carbon stocks, over the last two decades for Brazil’s center–south and north regions. The analysis was carried out at the rural property level, considering spatially explicit land conversion data. With the refinements, we found a net carbon removal of 9.8 TgCO₂∙yr⁻¹ in sugarcane cultivation areas in the 2000–2020 period, which was due to the expansion of sugarcane over poor quality pastures (55% of the gross removals), croplands (15%) and mosaic (14%) areas, and the transition from the conventional burned harvesting to unburned (16%). Moreover, 98.4% of expansion was over existent agricultural areas. Considering all the land use changes within sugarcane-producing rural properties, the net removal is even larger, of 17 TgCO₂∙yr⁻¹, which is due to vegetation recovery. This suggests that public policies and private control mechanisms might have been effective not only to control deforestation but also to induce carbon removals associated with sugarcane cultivation. These results indicate sugarcane production system and derived products as contributors to net carbon removals in the land sector in Brazil and should be considered for both bioenergy and agricultural sustainability evaluation.