Matthew L. Trumper

In anticipation for increased funding made possible by the Water Resources Development Act of 2020, the Upper Mississippi River Restoration (UMRR) Program identified a need to conduct river-wide assessments of floodplain vegetation. In January 2025, we assembled a group of subject matter experts to perform the following tasks:Review Upper Mississippi River Restoration’s current floodplain vegetation research portfolio,Identify important features and goals for long-term floodplain vegetation monitoring,Evaluate the suitability of existing datasets for system-wide vegetation assessments, andDiscuss emerging opportunities to learn about floodplain vegetation dynamics from local-scale restoration and management projects.This document is a summarization of what occurred at the meeting and provides suggested next steps toward developing the capacity to conduct routine long-term monitoring and assessment of floodplain vegetation as part of the Upper Mississippi River Restoration Program.

Context: Floodplain forests are being transformed by multiple pressures, prompting widespread management and restoration efforts. It is uncertain how disturbances, including hydrologic change, and management actions will interact to influence the ecology of these threatened forests. Objectives: This study examined the effects of alternative management and hydrologic regimes on forest succession at an Upper Mississippi River floodplain site with a restoration project in planning. Methods: We used the spatially explicit forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, to simulate forest succession for 100 years under four hydrogeomorphic management scenarios, three forest management scenarios, and two scenarios of future hydrologic conditions. We evaluated changes in forest biomass and composition over time and assessed the relative importance of management actions and hydrologic change on succession. Results: Forest aboveground biomass decreased in all management-hydrology scenarios, especially in the wetter hydrological scenario. Intensified hydrogeomorphic and forest management scenarios reduced the magnitude and extent of biomass declines; however, they were unable to prevent overall declines in biomass or cause large shifts in tree species composition. Silver maple ( Acer saccharinum ) was projected to decrease in biomass, while increases in biomass were projected for several late-successional species including swamp white oak ( Quercus bicolor ). Among the factors influencing variation in biomass, forest management had the largest influence in the first 50 years of our simulations, but hydrological regime became the most important factor by the end of the century. Conclusions: Our simulations indicate that management actions could play an important role in the conservation of floodplain forests, but their effectiveness will likely be limited if recent upward trends in flooding conditions in this system continue in the future. Thus, our results highlight both the potential benefits and limitations of management actions in the face of hydrologic change.

Future climate change will exacerbate drought stress in water-limited ecosystems. However, topography can alter the fine-scale climatic and hydrologic conditions that mediate plant response to meteorological drought. Here, with six new valley oak (Quercus lobata) tree-ring width chronologies, we assess how topography acts as a mediating factor on tree growth and drought sensitivity. Because valley oaks are known to be highly dependent on subsurface water, we predicted that trees growing in riparian sites would be less sensitive to precipitation variability due to greater access to groundwater. Trees were sampled in the Tehachapi Mountains of California across a landscape gradient of sites ranging from 375–1650 m elevation and across upland (55–69 m mean height above nearest drainage) and riparian (2–6 m mean height above the nearest drainage) hillslope positions. Interannual tree growth patterns and drought sensitivity varied substantially in association with hillslope position and elevation. Valley oak radial growth showed a consistently weaker response to precipitation at riparian sites. The influence of hillslope position on drought sensitivity varied with elevation, such that the riparian buffering effect was weakest at sites higher in the watershed and strengthened, progressively, toward the lower elevation sites with greater climatic water deficit. Upland tree growth exhibited a strong response to high-frequency interannual precipitation variability at the high elevation site, whereas trees at lower elevation upland sites responded more to low-frequency decadal trends in precipitation, possibly reflecting hydrogeological processes by which precipitation feeds groundwater lower in the watershed. Our results are consistent with groundwater-dependence of valley oak and indicate that riparian habitats are the most likely refugia for the species during prolonged drought.

Fire frequency exerts a fundamental control on productivity and nutrient cycling in savanna ecosystems. Individual fires often increase short-term nitrogen (N) availability to plants, but repeated burning causes ecosystem N losses and can ultimately decrease soil organic matter and N availability. However, these effects remain poorly understood due to limited long-term biogeochemical data. Here, we evaluate how fire frequency and changing vegetation composition influenced wood stable N isotopes (δ¹⁵N) across space and time at one of the longest running prescribed burn experiments in the world (established in 1964). We developed multiple δ¹⁵N records across a burn frequency gradient from precisely dated Quercus macrocarpa tree rings in an oak savanna at Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve, Minnesota, USA. Sixteen trees were sampled across four treatment stands that varied with respect to the temporal onset of burning and burn frequency but were consistent in overstory species representation, soil characteristics, and topography. Burn frequency ranged from an unburned control stand to a high-fire-frequency stand that had burned in 4 of every 5 years during the past 55 years. Because N stocks and net N mineralization rates are currently lowest in frequently burned stands, we hypothesized that wood δ¹⁵N trajectories would decline through time in all burned stands, but at a rate proportional to the fire frequency. We found that wood δ¹⁵N records within each stand were remarkably coherent in their mean state and trend through time. A gradual decline in wood δ¹⁵N occurred in the mid-20th century in the no-, low-, and medium-fire stands, whereas there was no trend in the high-fire stand. The decline in the three stands did not systematically coincide with the onset of prescribed burning. Thus, we found limited evidence for variation in wood δ¹⁵N that could be attributed directly to long-term fire frequency in this prescribed burn experiment in temperate oak savanna. Our wood δ¹⁵N results may instead reflect decadal-scale changes in vegetation composition and abundance due to early- to mid-20th-century fire suppression.

Fire frequency exerts a fundamental control on productivity and nutrient cycling in savanna ecosystems. A single fire event often increases short-term nitrogen (N) availability to individual plants, but repeated burning causes ecosystem carbon and N losses and can ultimately decrease soil organic matter and N availability. However, these effects remain poorly understood due to limited long-term biogeochemical data. Here, we leveraged one of the longest running prescribed burn experiments (established in 1964) to evaluate how fire frequency and changing vegetation composition influenced wood stable N isotopes (δ¹⁵N) across space and time. We developed multiple δ¹⁵N records across a burn frequency gradient from precisely dated Quercus macrocarpa tree-rings in an oak savanna at Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve, Minnesota, USA. Sixteen trees were sampled across four treatment stands that varied in temporal onset of burning and burn frequency, but were consistent in overstory species representation, soil characteristics, and topography. Burn frequency ranged from an unburned control stand to a high fire-frequency stand that burned in four of every five years during the past 55 years. Because N stocks and net N mineralization rates are currently lowest in frequently burned stands, we hypothesized that wood δ¹⁵N trajectories would have declined over time in all burned stands, but at a rate proportional to fire frequency. We found that wood δ15N records within each stand were remarkably coherent in their mean state and trend through time. A gradual, temporally synchronous decline in wood δ¹⁵N occurred in the mid 20th century in the no-, low-, and medium-fire stands, whereas there was no trend in the high-fire stand. The decline in the three stands did not systematically coincide with the onset of prescribed burning. Thus, we found limited evidence for variation in wood δ¹⁵N that could be attributed directly to long-term fire frequency in this prescribed burn experiment in temperate oak savanna. Our wood δ¹⁵N results may instead reflect decadal-scale changes in vegetation composition and abundance due to early to mid 20th century fire suppression.