David Romero

The consequences of tropical forest cover loss for regional hydrometeorology and global ecosystem function represent one of the most pressing environmental challenges of our time. The Yucatán Peninsula (YP) has experienced unprecedented deforestation pressure over recent decades, yet the effects of vegetation loss on precipitation dynamics remain poorly understood and uncharacterized. This study examines the 30-year relationship (1993–2022) between land-cover change and precipitation trends in the YP using satellite-derived coverage indices from LANDSAT and monthly precipitation data from the CHIRPS dataset. We applied multi-scale buffer analysis, combined with Spearman’s ρ statistic for precipitation trend detection and Pearson correlation for annual and seasonal time series. The results reveal a persistent positive correlation between two-epoch mean vegetation biomass and precipitation availability, consistent with regional water recycling mechanisms. Using directional (upwind-sector) buffers and a pre-comparison-period NDVI baseline, extended to 250 km, Adjcor_sp_ΔNDVI, the partial correlation between vegetation loss and precipitation trend, net of NDVI baseline and water surface proportion, is season- and scale-dependent rather than a single degradation signal: negative (wetter-with-loss, opposing the hypothesis) at small scales for Annual (≤55 km, not significant) and at small-to-medium scales for MAM (≤95 km), and positive (drier-with-loss, the hypothesized direction) at large scales for Annual and MAM and throughout for JJA and SON. Under Tjostheim’s coefficient, the association is significant across most of the tested range for every series (108 of 135 cells, 80.0%, unchanged after Benjamini–Hochberg FDR correction): consistently in the hypothesized direction for JJA (24/27 scales, 15–250 km) and SON (20/27, 35–250 km); predominantly in the opposite direction for MAM (20 of 26 significant scales, ≤95 km) with a hypothesis-consistent minority at its largest scales (6/26, 125–250 km); and sign-dependent on scale for Annual (15/27, all hypothesis-consistent, 60–250 km) and DJF (23/27, 12 opposite-direction at small scales and 11 hypothesized-direction at large scales); this threshold marks the magnitude at which forest cover loss, driven by agriculture, urbanization, and infrastructure development, disrupts the vegetation–precipitation association. Seasonal decomposition under this revised method shows the hypothesized (positive) direction throughout both summer and fall, with summer’s signal detectable from a shorter buffer radius (15 km) than fall’s (35 km), consistent with direct, locally triggered convection during the wet-season core giving way to a longer-range moisture-recycling pathway by fall. Mean ΔNDVI does not differ between federal protected areas and the rest of the study area, a balance between coastal-ANP forest loss and weak-signal interior recovery; independent land-cover classification shows a net gain within protected areas that this vegetation-index comparison alone does not detect. These findings provide a quantitative, multiscale basis for conservation policy, highlighting priority zones for conservation intervention.

Heatwaves have intensified across many regions due to ongoing warming, leading to significant environmental and societal impacts. The present study characterizes heatwave regimes across two contrasting subtropical regions of Mexico: the arid‐to‐semiarid northwest and the humid tropical Yucatán Peninsula. Using a station‐based percentile framework that enables consistent inter‐regional comparison, we identify marked differences in heatwave occurrence, intensity, and seasonal timing. In northwestern Mexico, heatwaves were characterized by higher peak temperatures occurring at a mean annual rate of approximately 0.16 events per year, with events clustering between June and August. In contrast, the Yucatán Peninsula exhibited a relatively higher occurrence rate (~0.33 events per year), with events concentrated between April and June before the onset of the rainy season. Station‐averaged event duration was concentrated in the 3–4‐day interval in NW and in the 4–5‐day interval in YP. These contrasts are further quantified through station‐based probabilities of heatwave occurrence derived from annual event counts, supporting the identification of two distinct heatwave regimes and providing a quantitative baseline for comparative climatological analyses and monitoring.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are associated with significant and destructive natural disasters, making the assessment and analysis of the resulting damage essential for effective disaster risk management. The main objectives of this research are to estimate the annual probability of Tropical Cyclones (TCs), analyse four socioeconomic damage variables (fatalities, affected population, damaged houses, and economic losses) related to TCs in Mexico from 1970 to 2023, and construct a composite socioeconomic damage index. Time series analyses were conducted to evaluate the four socioeconomic damage variables extracted from the damage databases. CENAPRED database was selected for a temporal-spatial analysis of cumulative data at the state level, covering the period from 1980 to 2023. A bootstrap PCA analysis was performed to assess the stability of the weights assigned to each variable in the index. At least one hurricane is expected to have socio-economic effects on the national territory each year. Discrepancies in the information from the three databases reveal differences in the reported data and time periods. According to the composite index, states like Guerrero, Veracruz, Oaxaca, and Nuevo León exhibit the highest levels of accumulated damage. However, it’s important to note that in Nuevo León, much of this damage is attributed to indirect impacts, such as extreme precipitation. The discussion emphasizes that cyclone intensity by itself, is not the reason for the damage magnitude, as factors like precipitation levels, and regional vulnerability are crucial drivers.

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is widely used to determine drought severity worldwide. However, inconsistencies exist regarding its application in warm, humid tropical climatic zones. Originally developed for temperate regions with a continental climate, the index may not adequately reflect drought conditions in tropical environments where rainfall regimes differ substantially. This study identifies the following two principal reasons why the traditional calculation method fails to characterize drought severity in tropical domains: first, the marked humidity contrast between the consistently humid rainy season and the rest of the year, and second, the diverse drought types in tropical regions, which include both long-term and short-term events. Using data from meteorological stations in Mexico’s humid tropics and comparing them with temperate regions, the study demonstrates significant discrepancies between SPI-based drought classifications and actual precipitation patterns. Our analysis shows that the abundant precipitation during the rainy season causes biases in longer time scales integrated into multivariate drought indices. Considerations are established for adapting the SPI for decision makers who monitor drought in humid tropics, with specific recommendations on time scale limits to avoid biases. This work contributes to more accurate drought monitoring in tropical regions by addressing the unique climatic characteristics of these environments.

The rainfall regime is a critical factor in the Yucatan Peninsula, as the spatial and multiannual variability of rainfall is a major concern, particularly for crops. Variability in the rainy season was examined considering the onset and demise of the annual rainy season, the total rain volume, the rainfall season duration and the intense precipitation events recorded in meteorological stations (1978–2020). We analysed individual time series and calculated the long‐term trend. Additionally, we explored the relationship between each summer rainfall characteristic and several oceanographic indices using multivariate techniques. We also developed a Trans‐Isthmic Index from the relationship between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. This index allows for determining the effect of the overall influence of the ocean on climate. The timeseries analysis revealed a high interannual variability and long‐term positive trends concerning the duration of the rainy season with earlier onset and later demise, and the total rainfall volume and also a positive trend for the occurrence of heavy precipitation suggesting a shift in intra‐annual patterns. Spatially, the analysis revealed clusters of stations with a similar variation, probably related to the AMO, NIÑO3.4 or TII indices. The spatial pattern was confirmed by analysing CHIRPS gridded precipitation data. Our results show that wetter conditions are associated with lower temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and warmer conditions in the Atlantic.

This geographic study on the epidemiology of Chagas disease (CD) highlights the importance of analyzing its spatial distribution to understand its spread. Factors such as sociodemography and the environmental and economic contexts are considered to identify high-prevalence areas. Given the transmission through triatomine insects, the study also includes entomological aspects. The study focused on the state of Yucatan, hypothesizing differences at the municipal level in the distribution of populations and the socioeconomic conditions that influence new infections with Trypanosoma cruzi. The period studied was established based on the analysis of the official statistics available about new cases of infection with T. cruzi from 2003 and the entomological indicators from 2015, both until 2022. The methodology included data by municipality loaded into a geographic information system per unit of time, followed by calculating incidence and prevalence rates. The nominal municipal marginalization index was used to assess poverty dimensions. The information was integrated with socio-demographic data from Mexico’s National Institute of Geography and Statistics (Instituto Nacional de Geografía y Estadística, INEGI) and the National Population Council (Consejo Nacional de Población, CONAPO). Finally, we conducted a correlation analysis applying a non-parametric test between entomological and socio-demographic variables, estimating the interdependence of entomological and epidemiological variables and their relationship with social factors. CD is ubiquitous in Yucatán, being more prevalent in the city of Mérida and its metropolitan area, as well as in the main urban centers and surrounding municipalities with a high population density to the south and east of the state (mainly in the municipalities of Ticul and Valladolid). The temporal distribution of the triatomine insects varied seasonally, with greater detection and collection in May 2016 and 2017. A time series analysis found no relationship between epidemiological and entomological variables. The significant correlation of epidemiological variables with the number of triatomine insects indicates the medical importance of vector transmission of the parasite in Yucatán. The evidence found suggests that living conditions — the most important socioeconomic and demographic variables at the municipal level as drivers for the vector transmission of T. cruzi and CD — were unpaved floor in houses, percentage of illiterate population aged 15 years and older, and overcrowding in households, all of them proxies of the nominal marginalization index, which was also significantly correlated with the infection rate in humans. Similarly, the correlation analysis suggests the effect of the interaction of urbanization processes, environmental modification, and the increasing human population density on the epidemiology of CD in Yucatán. In the Discussion, we argue that urbanization might influence the exposure of people to triatomine insects and affect the social vulnerability to face the threat of T. cruzi, either because it affects the household space, as well as the prevention and the availability of assets and inputs related to access to comprehensive healthcare. We also discuss the marked differences in epidemiological and entomological aspects between adjacent or similar municipalities, beyond the ecological characteristics, based on differences in the operation efficacy of monitoring programs and the urban location of technical-administrative units, and the main clinical centers and laboratories of the healthcare sector in the interior of the state. The main limitations of the study were the complexity of considering poverty as a dynamic and multidimensional process and the underreporting of CD cases due to its political and institutional neglect. This study provided a first approach to answering questions about the epidemiological situation of CD as a public health problem in Yucatán and knowing its spatial distribution. Furthermore, the present study challenges the geographically focused vision of government actions, which have addressed mainly vector control, and suggests that, due to the relationship of CD with the living conditions and socio-demographic and urbanization phenomena, this issue should be understood and approached from a broader and comprehensive perspective in public policy, including health aspects, given the complexity of the phenomenon, in parallel with the urgent need to provide access to comprehensive healthcare for those affected. En este estudio geográfico sobre la epidemiología de la enfermedad de Chagas (EC), se destaca la importancia de analizar su distribución espacial para comprender su propagación. Se consideran factores como la sociodemografía, el entorno ambiental y económico en la identificación de áreas de mayor prevalencia. Dada la transmisión a través de insectos triatominos, el estudio incluye aspectos entomológicos. La investigación se centró en el estado de Yucatán, hipotetizando diferencias a nivel municipal en la distribución poblacional y condiciones socioeconómicas que podrían influir en nuevas infecciones con Trypanosoma cruzi. La delimitación temporal se sustentó en el análisis de la estadística oficial disponible de los casos nuevos de infección con T. cruzi a partir del año 2003 y de indicadores entomológicos a partir del año 2015, ambos hasta el 2022. La metodología abarcó la agregación de datos por municipio en un sistema de información geográfica y por unidad de tiempo, seguida del cálculo de tasas de incidencia y prevalencia. Se utilizó el índice de marginación nominal municipal para evaluar...