Nahid Sultana

Food security is considered as the most important global challenge. Therefore, identifying long-term drivers of food security and their connections is essential to steer policymakers determining policies for future food security and sustainable development. Given the complexity and uncertainty of multidimensional food security, quantifying the extent of uncertainty is vital. In this study, we investigated the uncertainty of a coupled hydrologic food security model to examine the impacts of climatic warming on food production (rice, cereal and wheat) in a mild temperature study site in China. In addition to varying temperature, our study also investigated the impacts of three CO₂ emission scenarios—the Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5—on food production. Our ultimate objective was to quantify the uncertainty in a coupled hydrologic food security model and report the sources and timing of uncertainty under a warming climate using a coupled hydrologic food security model tested against observed food production years. Our study shows an overall increasing trend in rice, cereal and wheat production under a warming climate. Crop yield data from China are used to demonstrate the extent of uncertainty in food security modeling. An innovative and systemic approach is developed to quantify the uncertainty in food security modeling. Crop yield variability with the rising trend of temperature also demonstrates a new insight in quantifying uncertainty in food security modeling.

The Hawkesbury-Nepean Catchment in NSW, Australia has a unique topography that makes it highly susceptible to flood risks. A recent flood management review has indicated the need for better flood education for the communities residing in the floodplains of the catchment. This research article describes the perceptions of residents to flood risks to their property and factors that can influence this perception. The data was collected through on-line, face-to-face and postal surveys, and the results were derived from the 172 responses received. This article aims to provide a better understanding of the perceptions of the community residing in the Hawkesbury-Nepean Catchment, and to help develop more effective risk communication strategies, to enable better management of floods, and greater level of support from the communities on flood management. Findings of this research show that the communities have a low perception of flood risks in the region and that factors such as proximity to the rivers, gender, age and duration of living in the area can influence perceptions of flood risks to property.