Babak Ghazi

Anthropogenic climate change is intensifying the hydrological cycle and increasing extreme precipitation across much of Europe, yet understanding of pre-instrumental precipitation extremes in Central Europe remains limited by short instrumental records. This study presents the first comprehensive, documentary-evidence-based database of heavy and extreme precipitation events in Poland for the 12th–18th centuries. An assessment of a documentary-based database of heavy precipitation identified 477 such events. The extreme precipitation events were identified and classified into three types (long-lasting, heavy, or violent), based on reported impacts, duration, and affected regions. Results showed that the number of documented events increased over time, from a single event in the 12th century to 242 in the 18th century, with a peak of 182 events in the 1701–1750 sub-period. Silesia (37 %) and the Baltic Coast and Pomerania (28 %) were the most frequently affected regions, and summer accounted for the majority of all events. The duration of 273 events could be established, of which just over half lasted a single day. Notably, 316 impact assignments described damage never framed as a flood. These findings confirm that documentary sources capture fine-grained detail on the timing, duration, and consequences of past extreme-precipitation episodes, offering a valuable counterpart to multi-proxy reconstructions of longer-term hydroclimatic variability in Poland and Central Europe. This dataset offers a long-term baseline for evaluating present-day and projected changes in Central European precipitation extremes.

Climate change amplifies the risk of hydroclimatic extremes, posing significant challenges for arid and semi-arid regions vulnerable to temperature and precipitation variability. This study projects future meteorological drought in Iran under different climate change scenarios, focusing on two key objectives: (1) evaluating the performance of the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), and (2) quantifying future drought conditions using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We employ a multi-model ensemble of 25 bias-corrected and downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5) to project variations in temperature, precipitation, and meteorological drought occurrence in Iran for 2071–2100. The novelty of this study lies in integrating an Iran-specific evaluation of NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 with multi-timescale SPI–SPEI comparison and quantitative attribution of projected drought changes to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET). Results reveal pronounced warming, especially under SSP5–8.5, exceeding 5 °C in many parts of the country by 2100. Although precipitation projections show slight increases overall, notably under SSP3–7.0, substantial regional variability persists. Projections indicate that meteorological droughts are expected to become more frequent and severe in the northwestern and southeastern parts of Iran, with SPEI indicating greater drought intensity and duration due to temperature-driven increases in PET. These findings highlight the need for climate-resilient water management and robust adaptation policies to reduce the impacts of future droughts.

Anthropogenic climate change is intensifying the hydrological cycle and increasing extreme precipitation across much of Europe, yet understanding of pre-instrumental precipitation extremes in Central Europe remains limited by short instrumental records. This study presents the first comprehensive, documentary-evidence-based database of heavy and extreme precipitation events in Poland for the 12th–18th centuries. An assessment of a documentary-based database of heavy precipitation identified 477 such events. The extreme precipitation events were identified and classified into three types (long-lasting, heavy, or violent), based on reported impacts, duration, and affected regions. Results showed that the number of documented events increased over time, from a single event in the 12th century to 242 in the 18th century, with a peak of 182 events in the 1701–1750 sub-period. Silesia (37 %) and the Baltic Coast and Pomerania (28 %) were the most frequently affected regions, and summer accounted for the majority of all events. The duration of 273 events could be established, of which just over half lasted a single day. Notably, 316 impact assignments described damage never framed as a flood. These findings confirm that documentary sources capture fine-grained detail on the timing, duration, and consequences of past extreme-precipitation episodes, offering a valuable counterpart to multi-proxy reconstructions of longer-term hydroclimatic variability in Poland and Central Europe. This dataset offers a long-term baseline for evaluating present-day and projected changes in Central European precipitation extremes.

The paper presents a detailed analysis of strong winds in Poland in the 17^th century, including their frequency, intensity, and impacts on the natural environment, society and economy. The analysis is solely based on available documentary evidence. Preliminary archival research allowed the construction of a comprehensive database of strong winds for Poland for the study period. The 542 weather notes were used to obtain the following information about strong winds: time, location/region, duration, and indexations of intensity, extent, and damage character. For the first time, 14 years of complete daily weather data were used to analyse the occurrence of strong winds. The methodology follows that utilised by Przybylak et al. (2025) for the analysis of strong winds prior to the 17^th century. The number of strong winds in Poland in the 17^th century reached 525, with the majority occurring in the second half of the century. In the annual cycle, strong winds were less frequent in summer, whereas the other seasons had similar frequencies. The wind category “fresh and strong breeze” occurred the most frequently (61.9 %), followed by “gales” (26.7 %). The former category dominated in spring and autumn (58.8 %), whereas the latter prevailed in the cold half-year (65 %). Each category of strong wind occurred more commonly in northern and north-eastern Poland than anywhere else. In 13.5 % of reports of strong winds, information about damage was available – most frequently in winter and autumn and least frequently in spring. The most frequently reported damage and destruction involved buildings (residential, agricultural, churches, etc.) and forests. The availability of daily-resolution data significantly improved the reliability of results on strong wind occurrence, particularly for the mildest analysed category (fresh and strong breeze). The changes in frequency of strong wind events in Poland in the 17^th century were more similar to those observed in Northern than Southern Europe.

The paper presents a detailed analysis of strong winds in Poland in the 17^th century, including their frequency, intensity, and impacts on the natural environment, society and economy. The analysis is solely based on available documentary evidence. Preliminary archival research allowed the construction of a comprehensive database of strong winds for Poland for the study period. The 542 weather notes were used to obtain the following information about strong winds: time, location/region, duration, and indexations of intensity, extent, and damage character. For the first time, 14 years of complete daily weather data were used to analyse the occurrence of strong winds. The methodology follows that utilised by Przybylak et al. (2025) for the analysis of strong winds prior to the 17^th century. The number of strong winds in Poland in the 17^th century reached 525, with the majority occurring in the second half of the century. In the annual cycle, strong winds were less frequent in summer, whereas the other seasons had similar frequencies. The wind category “fresh and strong breeze” occurred the most frequently (61.9 %), followed by “gales” (26.7 %). The former category dominated in spring and autumn (58.8 %), whereas the latter prevailed in the cold half-year (65 %). Each category of strong wind occurred more commonly in northern and north-eastern Poland than anywhere else. In 13.5 % of reports of strong winds, information about damage was available – most frequently in winter and autumn and least frequently in spring. The most frequently reported damage and destruction involved buildings (residential, agricultural, churches, etc.) and forests. The availability of daily-resolution data significantly improved the reliability of results on strong wind occurrence, particularly for the mildest analysed category (fresh and strong breeze). The changes in frequency of strong wind events in Poland in the 17^th century were more similar to those observed in Northern than Southern Europe.

The paper presents a detailed analysis of strong winds in Poland in the 17^th century, including their frequency, intensity, and impacts on the natural environment, society and economy. The analysis is solely based on available documentary evidence. Preliminary archival research allowed the construction of a comprehensive database of strong winds for Poland for the study period. The 542 weather notes were used to obtain the following information about strong winds: time, location/region, duration, and indexations of intensity, extent, and damage character. For the first time, 14 years of complete daily weather data were used to analyse the occurrence of strong winds. The methodology follows that utilised by Przybylak et al. (2025) for the analysis of strong winds prior to the 17^th century. The number of strong winds in Poland in the 17^th century reached 525, with the majority occurring in the second half of the century. In the annual cycle, strong winds were less frequent in summer, whereas the other seasons had similar frequencies. The wind category “fresh and strong breeze” occurred the most frequently (61.9 %), followed by “gales” (26.7 %). The former category dominated in spring and autumn (58.8 %), whereas the latter prevailed in the cold half-year (65 %). Each category of strong wind occurred more commonly in northern and north-eastern Poland than anywhere else. In 13.5 % of reports of strong winds, information about damage was available – most frequently in winter and autumn and least frequently in spring. The most frequently reported damage and destruction involved buildings (residential, agricultural, churches, etc.) and forests. The availability of daily-resolution data significantly improved the reliability of results on strong wind occurrence, particularly for the mildest analysed category (fresh and strong breeze). The changes in frequency of strong wind events in Poland in the 17^th century were more similar to those observed in Northern than Southern Europe.

A reconstruction of historical floods in Poland in the 11th–18th centuries was carried out based on a comprehensive database of documentary evidence. For this period, we collected more than 1700 weather notes describing floods. The quality of each source containing weather notes was estimated. Only the most reliable sources were used for the analysis of flood occurrences and their characteristics. For the classification of flood intensity, the two most commonly used propositions for European rivers (Barriendos and Coeur 2004; Brázdil et al. 2006) were used. The origins of floods were evaluated based on the classification presented by Lambor (1954). The results showed that the highest number of floods in Poland in the study period occurred in the 16th century (294 cases). The number of floods in the 11th–15th, 17th, and 18th centuries were 166, 284, and 272, respectively. Most of the floods were recorded in the Oder River basin and Silesia region (western and south-western Poland). The evaluation of the intensity of floods revealed that most of the floods belong to the “above-average, or supra-regional flood” category according to the Brázdil et al. (2006) classification and the “extraordinary” category for the Barriendos and Coeur (2004) classification. The assessment of the main origin of floods demonstrated that rain and its sub-types (torrential, frontal, long-lasting, territorially widespread) constituted the main cause of floods in Poland in the 11th–18th centuries. The findings of this study will improve existing knowledge of historical hydrology in Europe and Poland before the 19th century. The work was supported by the National Science Centre, Poland, project No. 2020/37/B/ST10/00710. References: Barriendos, M., Coeur, D, 2004: Flood data reconstruction in historical times from non-instrumental sources in Spain and France. Systematic, Palaeoflood and Historical Data for the Improvement of Flood Risk Estimation. Methodological Guidelines. Brázdil, R., Kundzewicz, Z. W., & Benito, G., 2006: Historical hydrology for studying flood risk in Europe. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 51(5), 739–764.Lambor, J., 1954: Klasyfikacja typów powodzi i ich przewidywanie. Gospodarka Wodna, 4, 129–131.